NBA Playoffs: (3) Minnesota Timberwolves @ (5) Dallas Mavericks, Game 4

We could have a pair of sweeps in the Conference Finals for the first time since 1957, as the Timberwolves (56-26) desperately try to prolong their fate and extend this series tonight in North Texas. After beginning these playoffs like a juggernaut with 6 consecutive wins, Minnesota has seen that momentum dissipate entirely, with each of these games proving to be a microcosm of their overall run thus far. In Games 1 and 2, (HC) Chris Finch's troops managed to build leads of 15 and 18 points, only to collapse in the 4th Quarter en route to losing those two affairs by a combined 4 points. Sunday's 116-107 defeat was a bit different, as the Wolves trailed by as many as 12 points in the first half yet rallied back to take a 3-point lead in the final period. Unfortunately, their previous woes continued, going nearly 5 minutes without a single field goal, while their penchant for fouling allowed the hosts to build upon their lead from the free-throw line. As a team, the visitors shot a healthy 50.6% from the field, though struggled mightily from the perimeter (9-of-30 3FG), while getting outscored by 14 points from the charity stripe. (All-NBA Guard) Anthony Edwards, who has struggled mightily in this series, woke up with 24 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists, though only 4 of his total points came in the 4th Quarter, while (veteran Center) Karl Anthony-Towns was little more than an afterthought with 14 points on 5-of-18 shooting (27.8%).

Things to Know: As we get closer to tipoff, it seems that public are finally starting to come to their senses after watching the Timberwolves collapse not once, not twice, but three times in 5 days. As such, roughly 46% of all bets wagered upon tonight's Game 4 are siding with the visitors. On the season, Minnesota has been a mediocre team ATS, owning a 48-47-1 record, translating to a net loss of 3.36 units. After winning and covering their 6 games of these playoffs, Finch's unit has failed to cover all but 2 of the last 8 contests. The Wolves have been badly outplayed in the 4th Quarter during this series, as they have been outscored (-22), with 16 assists and 11 turnovers. Edwards and Towns have been major disappointments thus far, combining to shoot 37-of-111 from the field (33.3%) and 10-of-43 from beyond the arc (23.2%). The Timberwolves were outscored 3-14 over the final 4:50 minutes of play on Sunday Night. On the injury front, (veteran Point Guard) Mike Conley's name came up due to a tender right calf muscle that caused him to briefly leave the hardwood in Game 3. He is officially listed as questionable in tonight's potential clincher. Historically, no team has ever came back to win a series that they trailed 0-3 (0-154), with Minnesota suffering 2 sweeps and forcing a fifth game in such a series on 1 occasion.

Playmaker to Watch: This comes down to Towns, folks, who has been by far and away the most disappointing player for the Wolves in this series. A former number one overall pick, the 28-year-old is a 4-time All-Star that has been named to a pair of All-NBA Teams, though conventional opinion agrees that he hasn't come close to reaching his potential. In this series, Towns has shot a dreadful 27.8% from the field, including just 3-of-22 from beyond the arc (13.6%), which is damning for the self-professed "Greatest Shooting Big Man in NBA History". Hell, he was 0-of-8 from downtown in Sunday's defeat, marking the first time in his career that he failed to net a single trey despite attempting at least 8 of them. Furthermore, settling for so many threes has taken away the size advantage that Minnesota has in the frontcourt. Ever since the franchise opted to pair Towns alongside Gobert, there has been a sense that the clock is ticking on that "twin tower" approach, particularly given that (newly minted Sixth Man of the Year) Naz Reid is set to hit free agency in the offseason (he has a player option for 2024-2025). Finch and (GM) Tim Connelly have some hard decisions to make in the offseason, though the events of this series could make at least one of those decisions a bit easier.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks (52-30) are a win away from returning the Finals for the first time in 13 years, and they owe it all to their late-game execution, particularly from the dynamic duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. 2 of the most lethal offensive weapons in NBA history, the pair have taken turns exploiting the top defense in the league, tormenting the Wolves down the stretch of each chapter of this series. First it was Doncic pouring in 15 points in the 4th Quarter of Game 1, followed by 13 points from Irving and a late dagger courtesy of the Slovenian to steal Game 2. Then came Sunday night's 116-107 triumph, where they combined for 66 points, including 21 in the final frame. Dallas shot a stellar 55.9% from the field, including 14-of-28 from beyond the arc (50.0%), where they were +15, along with 26-of-31 from the free-throw line (83.9%) leading to a +14 advantage. Furthermore, (HC) Jason Kidd's troops turned 10 turnovers into 15 points and an 11-4 edge in fastbreak points.

Things to Know: After building a commanding 3-0 lead, the public still appears to be doubting the Mavericks' ability to cover the spread in tonight's potential finale, as approximately 44% of all the money wagered upon this Game 4 riding on the hosts. Dallas continues to be the best bet ATS in the NBA since February 5th, owning a stellar 34-14 record in that regard, equating to a net profit of 13.73 units. The Mavs are 10-5 ATS in these playoffs. Doncic and Irving have dominated this series, combining for 60.4 points, 11.7 rebounds, 13.4 assists, and 3.4 steals, while shooting 49.2% from the field and 41.7% from downtown. Furthermore, they outscored Minnesota 21-20 in the 4th Quarter of Game 3 all by themselves. As a team, Kidd's troops have been decisive in the final stanza, outscoring the Wolves by 22 points on a stellar 56.6% shooting, with Doncic and Irving combining for an average of 19.3 points in the period. On the injury front, (Rookie Center) Dereck Lively II left the action early after suffering a knee to the back of his neck and will be reportedly sidelined for tonight's affair due to what has been described as a "sprained neck". Historically, the Mavericks have completed 3 sweeps all-time, with a win tonight sending them to the NBA Finals for the third time in franchise history. Dallas' last trip came in 2011, when they overcame a 1-2 deficit to defeat Miami in 6 games.

Playmaker to Watch: It would be easy to pick Doncic here, but we're going to go with Irving, who has enjoyed quite the renaissance in this, his first postseason run with the Mavericks. It wasn't that long ago that the mercurial veteran was considered a toxic commodity around the Association, suffering a lengthy absence due to conflict with the league's COVID protocols, while being relegated to road games once he returned to action thanks to the larger restrictions for the virus within the state of New York. Injuries also played a role in his exit from Brooklyn, with the Mavs acquiring his services at the Trade Deadline last season. However, Dallas dismantled much of their rotation to get him, leading to a late downward spiral that saw them miss the playoffs altogether. With that said, this postseason has seen a return to form from the 8-time All-Star, who has been nothing short of sublime in this WCF, averaging 27.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.7 assists on stellar shooting splits of 52.5/43.8/73.7. A looming matchup with Boston in the NBA Finals, should be popcorn worthy, particularly given his brief tenure and controversial exit from Beantown 5 years ago.

Our Take: Mavericks 104, Timberwolves 99