NBA Playoffs: (1) Boston Celtics @ (6) Indiana Pacers, Game 4

This Eastern Conference Final could reach its conclusion tonight, as the Celtics (64-18) have the opportunity to end the series with a sweep. While this matchup has been largely competitive, with one game decided in overtime and another decided by just 3 points, the overall war has been a lot closer than the outcomes would suggest. With that in mind, the biggest takeaway has been Boston's edge late in games. Trailing by 5 points late in Game 1, they exploited their opponent's mistakes and forced overtime, where they pulled away to earn a 133-128 victory. Later in Game 3, (HC) Joe Mazzulla's side rallied back from an 18-point deficit in the second half to stun the crowd at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Saturday night, building this commanding advantage. On the series, they have been prolific in scoring 124.3 points per game on an efficient 49.3% shooting overall and 35.9% from beyond the arc, with the likes of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Jrue Holiday all enjoying clutch moments. With that being said, the Celtics owe this lead to their defensive prowess, forcing a number of crucial turnovers in late moments, such as Holiday's clutch strip late in the weekend's 114-111 affair.

Things to Know: Boston keeps winning games, but they haven't quite earned the favor of the public, as about 20% of all the bets placed upon this affair in Indianapolis is on the visiting side. The Celtics have covered just 1 of their last 6 games following a SU win. Mazzulla's outfit is 48-43-4 ATS this season, which equates to 27-game differential from their SU ledger, which leads to a very slim net profit of 0.64 units. This is a team that has cracked the Over in 5 consecutive contests, including every game in this series. Tatum and Brown have combined for 61.0 points on 50.0% shooting, 14.0 rebounds, 9.0 assists, and 3.0 steals in this ECF. Horford shot 7-of-12 from downtown in Game 3 (58.3%), a career-high for the 37-year-old. (Veteran Center) Kristaps Porzingis, who has missed the last 9 games due to a strained right calf muscle, is projected to return to the hardwood tonight. He averaged 20.1 points, 7.2 boards, 2.0 assists, and 1.9 blocks on shooting splits of 51.6/37.5 in his first season since arriving in Beantown via trade. Historically, no team has ever lost a series that they owned a 3-0 lead in, with the Celtics going on to sweep the opposition on 12 occasions. If Boston handles their business tonight, they will be appearing in their 23rd NBA Finals, second-most in NBA history.

Playmaker to Watch: This has gotta be Tatum, folks. The All-NBA Forward hasn't necessarily enjoyed an efficient shooting stretch over these last six weeks, netting 44.4% of his overall attempts from the field and just 26-of-89 from three (29.2%), but he has found plenty of other places to affect the game. The 26-year-old has logged a lot of minutes out of position as a makeshift Center in small-ball lineups while Porzingis has been out of action, averaging 26.0 points, 10.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.1 steals, and 0.8 blocks in this postseason. Furthermore, he has been adept at getting to the charity stripe, where he has calmly knocked down 92-of-109 attempts (84.4%). However, he is finally showing signs of breaking out of that shooting slump, torching Indiana on 47.8% shooting en route to a robust stat line of 31.7 points, 9.3 boards, 5.7 dimes, and 1.3 steals, while sinking 21-of-27 free-throws along the way (77.8%). His 36 points in Game 3 marked his 28th playoff game with 30+ points, which is good for third all-time in Celtics history.

Meanwhile, it is hard not to feel bad for the Pacers (47-35) who have done a lot of good things in this series, though nonetheless find themselves staring down the barrel of a sweep. The highest-scoring team in the NBA, this series has certainly been played to their liking, but a pair of perplexing meltdowns in Games 1 and 3 have earned them this fate, while the loss of (All-Star Point Guard) Tyrese Haliburton has put their Finals dream on life support. Indiana led by as many as 18 points in Saturday's loss, only to be outscored 57-42 in the second half, where they shooting plummeted (38.3%) and their mistakes grew (6 turnovers). 4 different players scored over 20 points, led by (young Guard) Andrew Nembhard, who filled in admirably in place of Haliburton with 32 points, though a crucial late turnover killed off their attempts to extend the contest. The hosts shot just 5-of-22 from the perimeter (22.7%), where they were outscored by 33 points.

Things to Know: The public continues to back the Pacers in this series, as nearly 80% of all the money wagered upon this potential finale has been placed on the hosts. Indiana has been a solid play ATS throughout the season, posting a 53-43-2 record on that front, which translates to a net profit of 5.82 units. In these playoffs, Carlisle's troops are 9-7 ATS, though are 5-2 ATS over their last 7 contests. Indy has covered 6 of their past 7 games as an underdog of 5-10.5 points. This is a team that is also 5-1-1 ATS over their last 7 outings as a home underdog. Turnovers continue to be a major factor in this series, as the Pacers have committed 48 of them thus far, shipping 44 points to Boston for a net loss of 18 points. In injury-related news, Haliburton is expected to miss his second straight game tonight, with his sore hamstring likely keeping him out of the remainder of this series, however long it continues to last. Historically, no team has ever rallied to win a series that they trailed 0-3, with just 3 teams ever managing to push said series to seven games. Indiana has been swept 6 times in their franchise history.

Playmaker to Watch: With Haliburton on the mend once again, Nembhard is going to have to shake off his poor play down the stretch of Game Three and fill the facilitator role. The 24-year-old has been a steady hand by his All-Star teammate for 2 years now, averaging 9.2 points, 2.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 0.9 steals in 25.0 minutes per game this season, while taking his play to another level in these playoffs. Over the last 6 weeks, the Canadian has logged 14.3 points on 56.1% shooting and 48.1% from three, 3.1 rebounds, and 5.3 assists, including a clutch dagger from downtown to beat the Knicks in a pivotal Game 3 during the Eastern Semifinals. In place of Haliburton, Nembhard erupted for 32 points on 12-of-21 shooting (57.1%) and 4-of-7 from beyond the arc (57.1%), along with 4 rebounds and 9 assists, though his late turnover in the waning moments ultimately cost them a chance of sending the affair into OT.

Our Take: Celtics 110, Pacers 104