NBA Playoffs: (3) Minnesota Timberwolves @ (5) Dallas Mavericks, Game 3

My, oh my, what a postseason run this has been for the Timberwolves (56-26), who experienced some serious highs and lows thus far. After steamrolling the Suns in a first-round sweep, they raced out to an early 2-0 lead over the Nuggets, before turning face and conceding 3 straight defeats to the reigning champions, only to rally back to win a Game 7 in Denver that featured the largest comeback in such a finale (20 points). Now, with all the momentum in the world from that conquest of the champs, Minnesota has promptly lost it all with back-to-back one possession losses at home to begin this Western Conference Final. In Game 1, the led by as many as 15 points only to meet a 105-108 defeat, followed by 108-109 heartbreaker in Game 2, which saw the hosts capitulate after building an 18-point advantage. Indeed, (HC) Chris Finch has gotta be fuming over his troops inability to maintain leads with their late-game execution on both ends of the court coming into play. Furthermore, his stars simply haven't played like stars; (All-NBA Guard) Anthony Edwards, (4-time Defensive Player of the Year) Rudy Gobert, and (former All-Star) Karl-Anthony Towns have all struggled in this series, with Edwards and Towns each shooting sub-35% from the field, while the Frenchman has been strategically neutralized. The Wolves have done enough things right to at the very least earn a split as this series shifts to American Airlines Center, but their inconsistencies are doing them in...

Things to Know: Even down 0-2, the Timberwolves still own the majority of the public favor, with roughly 64% of all bets wagered upon tonight's affair in North Texas siding with the visitors. This has been a campaign of peaks and valleys for Minnesota from an ATS perspective, with 2 separate stretches consisting of at least eight spread losses in 11 games, with this latest run featuring 5 non-covers in 7 contests. The road has been very kind to Finch's charges in these playoffs, with a 5-1 mark both SU and ATS away from Minneapolis. This is a team that 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. In 6 road ventures, these Wolves are +8.1 in points while shooting nearly 50% from the field, while enjoying a +30 differential from three. Defensively, they have relegated the opposition below 100 points 3 times in those affairs. Edwards and Towns have really struggled in this series, shooting a combined 21-of-69 from the floor (30.4%), with the latter netting just 3-of-14 treys (21.4%). The Timberwolves have held leads of 15 and 18 points in Games 1 and 2 respectively. Historically, this is a franchise that has never come back from being down 0-2 in a series before, losing each of their 6 tries.

Playmaker to Watch: Given the struggles of Edwards and Towns, how about we go with a guy who has certainly had a hot hand? This has been a stellar campaign for (Backup Forward) Naz Reid, who earned Sixth Man of the Year honors this season, averaging career-highs in points (13.5), rebounds (5.2), and assists (1.3) in 24.2 minutes off the bench. The 24-year-old is making a case to be a starter somewhere, particularly given his performance in this series, where he has been the Wolves' most effective offensive weapon. Reid has posted 19.0 points on 13-of-22 shooting (59.1%), including 10-of-15 from downtown (66.7%), bolstered by a demonstrative 7-of-9 in that latter regard on Friday night. Owning a player option for next season, he has likely made himself A LOT of money over the past six months.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks (50-32) find themselves 2 wins away from returning to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2011, and if they happen to get there, nobody can say that they haven't earned it. In the first round, Dallas battered the shorthanded Clippers, before toppling the top-seeded Thunder in the Western Semifinals in 6 games, and now own a 2-0 lead over the Wolves, who have been the darling of these playoffs. A transformative Trade Deadline and a shift to a more up-tempo style of play has been the root of the Mavs' evolution since early February, but (HC) Jason Kidd's troops have earned this advantage over Minnesota by getting back to basics: I.E. letting (All-Stars) Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving cook in the halfcourt. These guys are ELITE halfcourt weapons, who are capable of shredding any gameplan out there, which is what we've seen in these 2 games. In the opener, Irving authored 24 of his 30 points in the first half, while Doncic took over in the fourth quarter with 15 points. In Friday night's 109-108 thriller at Target Center, Luka got off early with 16 points before halftime with Kyrie recording 13 points in the final frame of play. Of course, the Slovenian was the one to deliver the killing blow, a clutch step-back 3-pointer over the hand of Gobert to take the lead with 3 seconds to spare.

Things to Know: The Mavericks may have earned a commanding 2-0 lead in this series, but the public has been harder to convince, as approximately 24% of all the money wagered upon tonight's Game 3 is favoring the hosts. Dallas has been on quite a run since early February, owning a 33-14 record ATS since 2/5, which has been a huge boon to their overall 12.82 net profit on the season. With that said, Kidd's charges are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. Doncic and Irving have been as advertised thus far, accounting for 57.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, 15.5 assists, and 2.0 steals in this series. The tandem of Daniel Gafford (added at the Trade Deadline) and Dereck Lively II (drafted 12th overall last June) have outplayed their more recognizable counterparts, combining for 24.5 points, 17.0 rebounds, and 4.0 blocks, while shooting an efficient 23-of-29 from the floor (79.3%). Historically, this is a franchise that has raced out to a 2-0 lead in a best-of-7 series on 6 occasions, winning 4 of them.

Playmaker to Watch: Who else could this realistically be other than Doncic? The Slovenian superstar was IN HIS BAG in Game 2, posting the eighth postseason triple-double of his career, including the fifth in these playoffs. The reigning scoring champion had his fingerprints all over this affair with 32 points, 10 rebounds, and 13 assists in nearly 42 minutes of action, punctuated with that aforementioned dagger over the outstretched arm of Gobert. Keep in mind that this is a guy that has been dealing with a bulky knee while matching wits with the top defensive team in the Association. Luka has had many stunning moments with the Mavericks, though we have to imagine that this latest game-winner ranks among his very best...

Our Take: Mavericks 108, Timberwolves 99