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8:30 PM EST, TNT - Spread: Wolves -4.5, Total: 207.5
For the second time in 3 years, the Mavericks (50-32) find themselves in the Western Conference Finals, bouncing back after a disappointing campaign in which they missed the Playoffs altogether. Indeed, Dallas essentially disassembled their rotation to pair (All-Star Guard) Kyrie Irving alongside (MVP finalist) Luka Doncic eighteen months ago, though they have done a tremendous job of restocking the proverbial cupboard with the additions of (Centers) Dereck Lively (via the Draft), PJ. Washington, and Daniel Gafford (both via trade). As a result, this team is much more well-rounded on both ends of the court, with those newcomers providing rebounding and shot-blocking, along with a triumvirate of lob threats for Doncic and Irving, who are 2 of the best at serving them up. (HC) Jason Kidd's troops eliminated both the Clippers and Thunder in 6 games apiece, slowing both series down and allowing Doncic and Irving to ruthlessly pick them apart. it remains to be seen if they will be able to do that to the Timberwolves, for there really wasn't much to take home from their 4 regular season meetings; each encounter took place before the Trade Deadline, which was when this team really found their rhythm, with Doncic participating in two of them and Irving making only one appearance.
Things to Know: The public doesn't seem overly enthusiastic about the Mavericks' prospects in this series opener, as roughly 20% of all bets wagered are in favor of Doncic & Co. Dallas has been one of the best bets in the NBA ATS, owning a 55-39 record on that front, parlaying to a net profit of 11 units, the most of any team left in the Playoffs. Since 2/5, this is a team that is 31-14 ATS, which coincided with the aforementioned acquisitions of Washington and Gafford at the Trade Deadline. Kidd's charges are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 7-3 in their past 10 outings as an underdog. These Mavs are 4-0 in their last 4 contests after an ATS loss. In their last 6 WCF affairs, they are 1-5 ATS. In injury-related news, it doesn't appear that we'll be seeing (veteran Center) Maxi Kleber in this series, with the German International beset by a sprained shoulder that cost him all of the previous series. Historically, this is the 6th time that the Mavericks have advanced to the WCF, winning two of the previous five series. Their most recent trip here ended in a 1-4 defeat at the hands of the Warriors 2 years ago.
Playmaker to Watch: This is going to be Doncic, folks, for the Slovenian sensation is oftentimes at the center of any success that comes Dallas' way. The 25-year-old has become one of the faces of the NBA over the past few seasons, though really took his play to another level this year finishing as one of three finalists for MVP honors on the strength of a league-best 33.9 points per game. These Playoffs have seen him battle through a bulky knee and his own variation of the famed "flue game" overcoming relatively average shooting splits of 42.3% and 30.1% to log 27.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and a postseason-high 9.1 assists. He'll be facing a very different task in combatting Minnesota's length and athleticism on the defensive end of the hardwood, but it should be noted that in two regular season meetings this year, he burned them for 36.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 10.5 assists on 50.9% shooting and 36.8% from three. Look for him to hunt for mismatches in the halfcourt, particularly the undersized Mike Conley via the pick and roll, who he would hold a serious size advantage against.
Meanwhile, the basketball renaissance continues in Minneapolis, where the Wolves (56-26) have returned to the Western Conference Finals following a 21-year hiatus. Indeed, Minnesota have vaulted themselves to the forefront of the national consciousness over the past month, thanks in large part to the meteoric rise of (All-Star Guard) Anthony Edwards and the top defense in the Association. After stunning the defending champions in the first 2 games of the previous series, the Wolves inexperience reared its head as they proceeded to drop 3 straight games, 2 of which came at home. However, (HC) Chris Finch's outfit proved to be very resilient, turning the tables and taking both the final 2 affairs, including a historic 98-90 victory in Game 7 which featured the largest comeback in such a game in NBA history. Trailing by 20 points in the third quarter, the visitors authored a furious 30-point swing to utterly stun the crowd at Ball Arena, thanks in large part to a defense that limited Denver to a mere 39 points in the second half. Now, we'll see how that defense stacks up against Dallas; in those 4 regular season meetings, the Wolves shipped 103.3 points on 44.5% shooting from the floor, including a tepid 31.3% from the perimeter.
Things to Know: The public is once again infatuated with the Timberwolves after their recent showing against the champs, with about 87% of all the money wagered on tonight's opener riding with Edwards & Co. These Wolves have been middle-of-the pack ATS this season, owning a 48-44-1 record on that front, leading to a net loss of 0.36 units. Minnesota began this postseason with 6 consecutive win and covers, only to drop 3 in a row to Denver before rallying back in Games 6 and 7 of the previous series. Finch's troops were 3-1 against the Mavs during the regular season, through all of them came prior to the Trade Deadline. Historically, this only the second time that the Timberwolves have advanced to the WCF and their first in 21 years. The last time they were here, they lost to the Lakers in 6 games.
Playmaker to Watch: Who could this possibly be other than Edwards? The brightest of rising stars has enjoyed an utterly fantastic run during these Playoffs, averaging 28.9 points on 50.4% shooting, including 39.8% from beyond the arc, 6.2 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.7 steals. After struggling mightily in the first half of Sunday's historic comeback (4 points on 1-of-7 shooting), the 22-year-old bounced back in other areas after intermission, logging 12 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and a steal in just over 23 minutes of action. Edwards appeared in each of the Wolves' four encounters with the Mavs during the regular season, averaging 24.5 points on 43.2% shooting from the floor, catching fire from three (10-of-22) and planting a flag at the free-throw line (24-of-33). Furthermore, in the post-game interview from their conquest of the Nuggets, he was asked about this upcoming matchup and his response was "I'll be guarding Kyrie", which should provide for a fascinating game-within-the-game against one of the sport's most lethal finishers.
Our Take: Wolves 104, Mavericks 99