NBA Playoffs: (1) Oklahoma City Thunder @ (5) Dallas Mavericks, Game 6

It's win or go home for the Thunder (57-25), who after enjoying more internal growth than just about any other team in the NBA suddenly find themselves facing oblivion in this Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Indeed, Oklahoma City continued their upward trajectory and improved by a stunning 17 games this season en route to earning the number one seed in the highly competitive West. After sweeping aside the Pelicans with relative ease, (HC) Mark Daigneault's troops started strong against Dallas, winning Game 1 in convincing fashion (117-95). However, that hasn't been the case as this affair has progressed, with OKC's high-powered attack stymied by the Mavs; they have been held to just 100.8 points on 43.6% shooting in Games 2-5, including a mere 29.1% from beyond the arc, which is a downright shocking turn of events given their league-best 38.9% shooting. Furthermore, the Thunder have been outscored by 54 points on treys over the last four games. Game 5's 92-104 defeat saw this trend continue, as the hosts could muster just 10-of-40 shooting from three (25.0%). Apart from (All-NBA Guard) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's strong performance (30/6/8/2), the rest of Oklahoma City could muster just 62 points on 38.4% shooting.

Things to Know: It appears that the public has little interest backing the Thunder at this point, as roughly 20% of all bets wagered upon tonight's potential finale at American Airlines Center is behind the visitors. While they have been excellent straight-up this season, there isn't a more profitable team left in the Playoffs ATS (52-39), equating to a net profit of 8.27 units. With that being said, this has been a particularly dry spell for Oklahoma City, who have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games following an inspired 9-1 run ATS. Daigneault's charges are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, though are 7-3 within that same range as a dog against Dallas. This is a team that is also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 contests following a straight-up loss. OKC has thrived off forcing turnovers this season, with an NBA-best 15.7 per game and a turnover percentage of 13.6% (2nd Overall), but have failed to meet those standards in this series (13.0/12.0%). (Rookie Center) Chet Holmgren has struggled to make his presence felt against the Mavs' group of rangy, athletic bigs, posting 14.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 2.8 blocks, while shooting a mere 5-of-20 from three (25.0%). Historically, this is a franchise (since moving to OKC) that has rallied back to win a series after trailing 2-3 on one occasion (2014 First Round), managing to force a Game 7 twice.

Playmaker to Watch: This has gotta be Gilgeous-Alexander. The MVP finalist has been stellar throughout this series, logging 31.4 points (including 30+ in 4 straight contests) on 49.6% shooting, 9.0 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.4 steals, and 2.4 blocks in just over 40 minutes per game. However, this is the first time that many of his young teammates have faced elimination, which is a level of adversity that 25-year-old is intimate with. SGA has been in this position twice in his career: Game 6 of the first round of the 2019 Playoffs (as a member of the Clippers) against the (reigning champion) Warriors and a year later in the bubble in Game 7 of the Thunder's first-round affair with the Rockets. In those 2 fateful contests, he met defeat on both occasions though it certainly wasn't for a lack of trying; Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 20.5 points on 14-of-25 shooting (56.0%), including 5-of-8 from three (62.5%), 4.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.0 steal.

Meanwhile, the tables have clearly turned in favor of the Mavericks (50-32), who find themselves one game away from advancing to their second Western Conference Final in 2 years. After missing the Playoffs altogether last season, Dallas has returned to form thanks in large part to a transformative Trade Deadline and an insistence from (HC) Jason Kidd to push the tempo. After years of playing at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, these Mavs have kicked things into high gear, ranking 6th in the NBA in pace (100.1 possessions per 48 minutes). The additions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington, along with the development of (Rookie Center) Dereck Lively has also brought some sorely needed balance to the Frontcourt, as (All-Star Guards) Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have offered up a plethora of lobs to their cadre of athletic bigs. Since dropping the opener of this series, the Mavericks have been in control, thanks in large part to their blistering three-point shooting (39.3%) and their dominance on the glass (+6.3). Wednesday night's pivotal 104-92 victory at Chesapeake Energy Arena saw the visitors net 52.6% of their attempts from the field, including 14-of-35 from downtown (40.0%), while winning the battle on the boards in decisive fashion (46-33). Sure, Doncic had a triple-double (more on him shortly), but the supporting cast was MASSIVE in this one, as Washington, Lively and (veteran Forward) Derrick Jones combined for 40 points on 14-of-22 shooting (63.6%) and 21 rebounds.

Things to Know: The public is sold on the Mavericks at this point, folks, with approximately 81% of all the money wagered on tonight's affair riding with the hosts. Dallas has been one of the most profitable teams in the NBA ATS (55-38), equating to a net profit of 12 units. This is largely due to their stellar form since early March; since March 7th, the Mavs 23-8 both SU and ATS, including 7-4 in both respects in these Playoffs. Kidd's charges have covered 4 consecutive games when enjoying at least 2 days of rest. Doncic & Co are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5 points. After a slow start following his acquisition from the Hornets, Washington has grown into his role in Dallas, proving to be indispensable in this series; the 25-year-old has averaged 19.4 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 2.0 assists against OKC, while knocking down an insane 21-of-44 three-pointers (47.7%), which is twice as more as anyone on the Thunder, who led the NBA in 3P%. Historically this is a franchise that is 10-1 all-time in a series that they are leading 3-2, though it should be noted that five of those series ended up being decided in 7 games.

Playmaker to Watch: With an opportunity to close and further add to his growing legend in North Texas, all eyes will be on Doncic tonight. The Slovenian sensation was a finalist for MVP honors thanks in large part to leading the NBA in scoring at a career-best 33.9 points per game. Even with a tender right knee "slowing" him down throughout this series, the 4-time All-NBA selection has left his imprint all over it with 23.8 points, 10.6 rebounds, 8.4 assists, and 1.8 steals. Wednesday night's affair saw a return to form from Doncic who shot over 50.05 for only the second time in this series, netting an efficient 12-of-22 attempts from the field (54.5%) and 5-of-11 from three (45.5%) en route to compiling a triple-double (31/10/11). In clinching scenarios, Doncic has been stellar, averaging 32.4 points on 47.5% shooting and 35.2% from downtown, along with 8.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists, and 1.8 steals.

Our Take: Mavericks 106, Thunder 100