NBA Playoffs: (2) Denver Nuggets @ (3) Minnesota Timberwolves, Game 6

The Nuggets (57-25) can punch their second consecutive ticket to the Western Conference Finals with a win in Minneapolis tonight, as their first-ever championship defense has course corrected following an unforeseen bump in the road. Coming into these Playoffs, Denver was held by many as the favorite to represent the West in next month's NBA Finals, and after casually eliminating the Lakers in a gentleman's sweep, they appeared well suited to reach that summit. However, (HC) Mike Malone's charges were hit with a bonafide haymaker from their Northwest Division rivals in the early stages of this series; the reigning chaps were embarrassed on their homecourt in Games 1 and 2, where they were outscored 33 points. With that being said, Malone challenged them as the scene shifted to Minnesota, where they promptly returned the favor and took both games to level the series at 2-2 before returning to Ball Arena on Tuesday night. For those of us that were giddy over the demise of the Nuggets, those reports were indeed premature, as Denver retook the series led with a commanding 112-97 victory in Game 5. The hosts shot a blistering 55.0% from the field, including 9-of-19 from downtown (47.4%), with 30 assists opposed to committing a dozen turnovers, while killing the visitors in transition (+12) and in the paint (+14). (Newly minted 3-time MVP) Nikola Jokic was nothing short of dominant, totaling 40 points on 15-of-22 shooting (68.2%), 7 rebounds, 13 assists, and remarkably ZERO turnovers.

Things to Know: Winning three consecutive games after falling behind 0-2 has clearly restored the public's faith in the Nuggets, who are garnering roughly 64% of the total bets wagered upon tonight's Game 6. Despite owning the joint best record in the Western Conference, Denver was a frustrating play ATS this season, owning a 43-47-2 record in that regard equating to a net loss of 7.91 units. Malone's troops have covered each of their last 3 outings, turning the tables following a stretch of 4 consecutive ATS defeats. This is a team that has covered 4 of their last 5 away games, while covering 7 of their last 10 outings as an underdog, including each of the last 6. Between Games 3-5, the Nuggets have cracked the code and torched Minnesota's vaunted defense, shooting 55.2% from the field, including 46.8% from beyond the arc, where they are +21 points, while dishing out a healthy 28.3 assists in comparison to committing just 11.0 turnovers. Jokic has been sublime in this series, averaging 29.4/10.4/9.2 through 5 games, but during the past 3 outings he has been even better with 33.0 points, 93 rebounds, 9.7 assists, 2.7 steals, and 1.7 blocks, while shooting a ruthlessly efficient 60.6% overall. Historically, the Nuggets are 13-10 all-time in clinching games of a best-of-7 series, though they failed to do so when said opportunity first presented itself in the previous round of these playoffs, eliminating the Lakers in Game 5 after taking the first three contests.

Playmaker to Watch: It would be easy to pick Jokic or the resurgent Murray here, but how about we show some love to Aaron Gordon? The veteran Forward is often tasked with doing the dirty work for Denver on both ends of the hardwood, which is precisely what he's done in the Western Semifinal. The 28-year-old has been on a heater over the last 4 games, logging 19.5 points on 66.0% shooting and 66.7% from deep, along with 5.8 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.3 steals, all the while switching onto Anthony Edwards, whom he has done a commendable job defending. His 27 points on a near-perfect 11-of-12 shooting in Game 4 paved the way for this 3-2 series lead, with his all-around play cementing his status as the perfect complement to Jokic in the Frontcourt.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves (56-26) have swiftly gone from being the darlings of the Association to one game away from soaking up the sun in Cancun. How did it come to this, you ask? Well, Minnesota was as advertised in Games 1 and 2, with their relentless defensive pressure completely taking the defending champs out of their rhythm, while the supernova that is (All-Star Guard) Anthony Edwards continued to raise the discussion of his credential compared to that of a certain GOAT. In those victories, (HC) Chris Finch's charges relegated the Nuggets to 89.5 points on 40.5% shooting, 20.0 assists, and 14.0 turnovers, while holding advantages in points off turnovers (+9), fastbreak points (+9), and above all else, points in the paint (+28). However, if you've read up to this point, then you know that the tables turned completely after that, with the Wolves' defense proving utterly incapable of slowing down Jokic & Co, shipping 114.7 points on 55.2% shooting. However, it should be noted that their own offense has really fallen apart during this stretch, producing a meager 98.0 points on 46.8% shooting and 33.3% from beyond the arc, with 24.7 assists in comparison to 13.0 turnovers. Tuesday night's loss at Mile High saw Edwards finally come back down to Earth with 18 points on 5-of-15 shooting (33.3%), while the attack as a whole couldn't get out of their own way as (veteran Point Guard) Mike Conley was sidelined due to injury (more on him in a bit). Minnesota continued to be a high turnover team this season, ranking 22nd in turnovers (14.2) and 23rd in turnover percentage (13.0%), which was certainly the case in Game 5 with 14 giveaways for a consequential 18 points.

Things to Know: After enjoying all of the attention that they garnered during their 6-0 start to these Playoffs, the Timberwolves appear to have lost the public's faith, as just 41% of all money wagered on tonight's potential finale is siding with Edwards & Co. Like their counterpart tonight, Minnesota's success ATS was a long way off of their SU record, posting a 46-44-1 mark in that former regard, equating to a net loss of 2.18 units. Since the All-Star Break, the remainder of the campaign has been one of peaks and valleys for Finch's troops, who have enjoyed two separate stretches of 6 consecutive covers, while enduring a 2-8 run immediately post-Break, followed by a 2-7 slide a bit later. Now after covering the first 6 games of this postseason, they have dropped three straight on that front. The Wolves are -7 ATS in their last 10 contests at Target Center. This is a team that is now 1-5 ATS over their past 6 games following a spread loss. While their defense has completely fallen apart, the Timberwolves have also fell back into old habits, as they are -17 in points off turnovers over the last 3 games. On the injury front, Conley is listed as questionable to return after missing Tuesday night's affair due to a sore right Achilles. A calming influence at Point Guard, it is no coincidence that Minnesota's mistake-prone nature bubbled up in his absence. Historically, the Timberwolves have NOT fared well when facing elimination, owning a 2-5 record in such games of a best-of-7 series, splitting two of them in last year's first-round matchup with the Nuggets. This is a franchise that has only ever won ONE Game 6 in their relatively brief postseason history, that lone victory ironically came against Denver in the first round of the 2004 Playoffs.

Playmaker to Watch: You may have heard him called out by multiple media outlets, so we'll do the same: Rudy Gobert needs to step the @#$% up NOW. One of just three players in NBA history to be awarded Defensive Player of the Year honors 4 times (Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace), the towering Frenchman has also earned the dubious reputation of being completely taken out of games in the Playoffs. Three successive postseasons in which he was played off the court in Utah led to the blockbuster trade that brought him to Minnesota, where he has anchored the top defense in the Association. Unfortunately, since returning to the Wolves after missing Game 2 due to the birth of his child, Gobert has been getting COOKED by Jokic, who as we covered earlier, is shooting well over 60% from the field during this stretch of the series.

Our Take: Nuggets 107, Timberwolves 101