Gasparilla Bowl: Georgia Tech vs UCF

The bowl season rolls along with a trip to Raymond James Stadium where the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the UCF Knights cross paths for the second time in as many seasons in this Winter’s Gasparilla Bowl. After a 4-year drought, Georgia Tech (6-6, 5-3 in ACC) is finally back in a bowl, gunning for their first winning campaign since participating in one of these postseason affairs back in 2018. One of the longest running rebuilding projects in the FBS, the Yellow Jackets appear to be out of the proverbial woods following years of transitioning the program away from the Paul Johnson era in Atlanta. Now, we’re by no means knocking the work that Johnson did at Tech, as the former Navy skipper steered the bugs to an 80-63 (.580) record, including seven winning seasons, with a pair of 11-win campaigns resulting in an Orange Bowl triumph back in 2014. However, they were one of the few FBS sides to utilize the spread offense, and as we’ve seen in the past, there are half measures with that approach, folks. So, after eleven years of running (and recruiting) the spread, whoever took over for Johnson was going to have quite a project on their hands, which brings us to (former Head Coach) Geoff Collins. By and large, Collins received a fair amount of time to implement the transition in Atlanta, though nonetheless went 9-25 in his first three seasons on the job, Though he showed signs of life in 2021 (5-7), a disappointing 1-3 start last Fall cost him his job, leaving (Offensive Line Coach) Brent Key to pick up the pieces. Well, Key did more than that, leading Georgia Tech to a respectable 4-4 finish, including 4-3 within the ACC, highlighted by upsets over (No. 24) Pittsburgh (26-21) and (No. 13) North Carolina (21-17). This Fall, the 45-year-old guided his alma mater to a .500 regular season, thanks in large part to an offense that finally looks like a modern attack; the Yellow Jackets averaged 31.2 points (43rd in FBS) on 429.1 total yards, both of which are highs since 2018, including 232.0 passing yards, the most that they’ve produced since the pre-Johnson administration. (Texas A&M transfer) Haynes King arrived in Atlanta after injuries stunted his growth in College Station, with the former highly touted recruit showing signs of becoming the star that scouts fell in love with. King (pictured below) has completed 61.9% of his passes for 2,755 yards on 7.8 yards per attempt, with twenty-six touchdowns and fifteen interceptions, while demonstrating his athleticism with 648 rushing yards and another nine scores. Sure, the turnovers have been troubling (he’s thrown 3+ interceptions in 3 games thus far), but the talent is undeniable, with the hope being that another year within (first-year Offensive Coordinator) Buster Faulkner’s system will lead to more consistent results. Turnover woes aside, the thing that really kept these bugs from flying higher was a defense that allowed 30.5 points (104th in FBS) on 438.2 total yards, including a generous 225.7 yards against the run, which equates to an untenable 5.4 yards per game. Armed with seven returning starters from last year’s unit, the train of thought was that they would progress in 2023, but that simply hasn’t been the case as they’ve shipped 200+ rushing yards in five of their final six contests. This was the case in their season finale against (instate rival) Georgia, which is a tall test for anyone. With that being said, credit to Key & Co for giving the defending National Champions a run for their money; the hosts hung tight for nearly one half of football, trailing 13-14 until the visitors breached the end zone shortly before intermission. That would begin a 17-0 run for the Dawgs, though Tech would respond with ten unanswered in the fourth quarter, capped by a short touchdown run from King, though their rally would ultimately come up short. In the end, the Yellow Jackets rushed for 205 yards against their SEC foes, while coming up with a pair of takeaways to remain within striking distance, including an interception courtesy of (Senior Nickelback) K.J. Wallace. King completed just 11-of-20 passes for 158 yards but rushed for twenty-four yards and a pair of scores, while (Tailbacks) Jamal Haynes and Dontae Smith totaled eighty-one and sixty-eight yards respectively.

From a betting perspective, Georgia Tech may be a middling 6-6 straight-up this season, but they have been slightly more rewarding against the spread in posting a 7-5 record in that regard. After covering just three of their first seven games, the Yellow Jackets found their rhythm with four covers in their final five outings, including each of their last two contests, the most recent being their finale against the Bulldogs. Key’s troops were 24-point underdogs against the reigning two-time National Champions and proceeded to give them everything they could handle. Under the leadership of the former O-Line Coach, this is a team that is 12-8 (.600) against the spread since he took over five games into the previous campaign, though are making their first appearance in bowl since 2018. Alll-time, Georgia Tech is 25-20 (.555) in these postseason affairs, though they haven’t tasted such a victory since 2016 when they bested Kentucky in the Gator Bowl. In their most recent effort, they were hammered by Minnesota in the 2018 Quick Lane Bowl despite being favored by five points. Looking at this particular matchup, these teams should be familiar with each other after crossing paths early last season. Ironically, that 10-27 defeat in Orlando was the tilt that led to Key’s promotion as the aforementioned Collins was fired shortly thereafter. The Jackets’ defense did their job in limiting the Knights to just one offensive touchdown and a quartet of field goals but could find the end zone only once themselves despite outgaining their hosts 438-333 in total yardage. Leading 7-6 inside of two minutes to go in the first half, the visitors suffered a block punt from their own end zone, which Central Florida pounced on to take the lead heading into intermission. On the injury front, this is largely healthy team coming into tonight’s Gasparilla Bowl, though (Sophomore Tailback) Jamie Felix could end up making his season debut after missing the entire campaign thus far to an undisclosed injury. As a freshman he amassed 121 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on twenty-nine touches in five games last Fall. Looking ahead, a win tonight would earn Georgia Tech their first winning record since 2018, which would be a major boon to Key as he continues to build upon the foundation laid by Collins after over a decade of running the option in Atlanta, particularly ten starters expected to return for the senior campaigns, which doesn’t even include King, who will effectively be a junior.

Meanwhile, after winning nine games in each of the last two campaigns, in which they were ranked as high as seventeenth last Fall, UCF (6-6, 3-6 in BIG XII) has endured what could only be described as a wholly expected down year for a program making the transition from the America Athletic Conference to the BIG XII. While their new league may not stand up against the likes of the mighty SEC or the BIG 10, moving to the BIG XII represented a healthy raise in competition for these Knights, who had spent much of the previous decade running roughshod over the AAC. Remember when the 2017 incarnation of Central Florida petitioned for a spot in the College Football Playoff after finishing the season unbeaten? Well, that denial ultimately planted the seeds of their move to a Power-5 conference, which finally transpired this Fall in their move to the BIG XII. So, how did (Head Coach) Gus Malzahn & Co handle this shift, you ask? Well, one would have figured that their high-powered offense would feel right at home with the litany of prolific attacks that populate the league, which is precisely what happened. UCF averaged 32.5 points (34th in FBS) on 492.3 total yards, including 259.1 yards through the air and another 233.2 on the ground, netting to 7.1 yards per play. Balance and tempo are the keys to Malzahn’s system, with (Senior Quarterback) John Rhys Plumlee and (Junior Tailback) R.J. Davis making the most profound impact in this regard. After being benched due to throwing four interceptions in the first two games of the season, Plumlee has played fairly efficient football since returning as the starter in early October, tossing ten touchdowns opposed to four picks, while rushing for 45+ yards and four more scores over the final six games. As for Harvey (pictured below), he has relished the opportunity to become the Knights’ lead option in the Backfield, rushing for 1,296 yards and sixteen touchdowns on a healthy 6.1 yards per carry. In the passing game, (Junior Wideouts) Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson have been big-play producers, with a combined eighty-five receptions, 1,819 yards, and thirteen touchdowns, all the while racking up over 20.0 yards per catch apiece. However, it should be noted that Central Florida’s introduction to their new neighborhood was anything but smooth; Malzahn’s charges began the season 4-0 in non-conference play, though proceeded to drop their first FIVE BIG XII outings, in which they were gashed for 40.6 points on 472.8 total yards, including a turnover differential of -5. Thankfully, they began to find their legs down the stretch, winning three of their last four contests to become bowl eligible, as (first-year Defensive Coordinator) Addison Williams has stiffened in allowing 16.5 points on 374.2 total yards with a much healthier turnover differential of +6. When we last saw these Knights, they punched their ticket to tonight’s Gasparilla Bowl with a 27-13 victory over fellow BIG XII newcomer, Houston. The Cougars clung to a 10-7 lead heading into the second quarter, which is where the Knights managed to turn the tables in running off TWENTY-ONE unanswered points, highlighted by back-to-back touchdown runs from Harvey. In the end, the hosts held major advantages in a slew of categories, including total yards (476-259), rushing yards (223-94), and first downs (23-17), while also winning the turnover battle thanks to an interception by (Junior Cornerback) Corey Thornton. In his final outing before the home crowd in Orlando, Plumlee turned in one of his finer performances, completing an efficient 23-of-27 passes for 253 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for fifty-eight yards and another score. All Harvey did was gash the visitors for 136 rushing yards and two touchdowns on twenty-one carries, while Hudson led the way with ninety-eight receiving yards on nine carries, with (Sophomore Receiver) Xavier Thompson hauling in the 28-yard score from Plumlee.

From a betting perspective, UCF was also 6-6 straight-up this season, but unlike their opponent tonight, they were marginally less-rewarding against the spread, finishing with a subpar 5-7 record in that regard. The Golden Knights covered only three of their first nine outings this Fall, though did manage to capture back-to-back covers as 2.5-point underdogs before failing to cover as 15.5-point favorites in their season finale against Houston. Under the leadership of Malzahn, this is a program that is 17-22 (.435) against the spread since he arrived in Orlando three years ago, including a 1-1 mark in these postseason affairs. All-time this is a program that 6-8 (.428) in bowls, including 3-4 when these games are contested in the sunshine state. In his first bowl outing with Central Florida, Malzahn guided them to a comfortable 29-17 victory over Florida in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl despite being 7.0-point underdogs, though followed that up with a 13-30 drubbing at the hands of Duke in last Winter’s Military Bowl, in which they were receiving three points. In their final outing representing the AAC, the Knights (ranked 22nd Overall) were felled by the Blue Devils despite only being outgained by twenty-four total yards. As is typically the case with these games, turnovers ultimately determined the victor, with UCF committing two (while fumbling two more times). It was a tough day at the office for Plumlee, who completed 21-of-34 passes for just 182 yards and an interception, while rushing for twenty-one yards on fourteen carries and fumbling a number of times. As for Harvey, the senior amassed fifty-four yards from scrimmage on nine touches, while (former Tailback) Isaiah Bowser scored their only two touchdowns. Looking at this particular matchup, this is the third meeting between these schools since 2020, with the Knights taking both encounters. The first, a 49-21 thumping in Atlanta saw Central Florida accumulate a whopping 660 total yards and FIVE takeaways in the season opener, while last Fall’s 27-10 affair at FBC Mortgage Stadium featured an overwhelming performance on the ground from the hosts, who rushed for 284 yards on fifty-four carries. The triumvirate of Plumlee, Bowser, and Harvey churned out 243 yards, with the Quarterback leading the way with 100 yards and a score. On the injury front, this is also a largely healthy team, with the only scratch expected to be (Senior Safety) DeJordan Mask, who missed the final six games of the season due to an unspecified malady. He logged eleven tackles and one interception prior to his campaign being cut short. Looking ahead, a win tonight would grant Malzahn his third consecutive winning season at UCF, even if they took a step backwards in their maiden voyage through the BIG XII. As the landscape of the conference continues to shift, they should be better suited for success next Fall with ten starters expected to return for their senior years, though Plumlee must be replaced.

Projected Outcome: UCF 38, Georgia Tech 31