#1 Expert Write-Ups, Best In The Industry

NBA Playoffs: (4) Cleveland Cavaliers @ (1) Boston Celtics, Game 1

7:00 PM EST, TNT - Spread: Celtics -11.5, Total: 208.5

It may have taken every bit of 7 games, but the Cavaliers (48-34) are back in the Eastern Conference Semifinals for the first time since 2018, though this instance is of particular significance for it marks the first time that this franchise has managed to win a series without LeBron James since 1993. Simply put, this was a MAJOR step for Cleveland, who after getting embarrassed in last year's Playoffs, were outplayed throughout much of this series, even trailing by 18 points in the second quarter of Sunday's 106-94 victory. However, buckled down on the defensive end, relegating the visitors to just 33.7% shooting from the field, while receiving another huge performance from (All-Star Guard) Donovan Mitchell (39 points/9 rebounds/5 assists), along with timely plays from (young Forward) Evan Mobley and (veteran sniper) Max Strus. The hosts bludgeoned their opponent in the paint (50-28) and shot 30-of-36 from the charity stripe (83.3%) in this affair that saw a remarkable 32-point swing between the second and fourth quarters. And what do (HC) J.B. Bickerstaff & Co get for their efforts, you ask? A date with the mighty Celtics, whom they met three times during the regular season (1-2); each affair was decided by single digits, with the Cavs narrow winning the most recent encounter, a 105-14 thriller at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse highlighted by a 20-point fourth period courtesy of (Backup Forward) Dean Wade of all people.

Things to Know: It appears that the majority of the public thinks that the Cavaliers will be fairly gassed coming out of that affair with the Magic, as roughly 36% of all bets have sided with Spida & Co, while only 27% of all money wagered on this opener have followed suit. Cleveland has been fairly mediocre ATS this season, posting a 41-46-2 record in that regard, equating to a net loss of 9.64 units. Since going HAM on the NBA from December 16th to February 10th, a stretch in which they went 22-4 SU and 18-8 ATS, this is a team that gone 17-20 SU and 13-25 ATS. Bickerstaff's troops have managed to cover-back-back games just twice during this run. Receiving a lot of points from the oddsmakers hasn't been a good thing for Cleveland, who are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 contests as both a road underdog and as a dog of 11.0+ points. Keep on the availability of (veteran Center) Jarrett Allen, who missed his third straight game due to a rib contusion. A former All-Star, he averaged 16.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks this season, affording Bickerstaff the luxury of playing very large lineups alongside Mobley. Historically, this is thirteenth time that the Cavaliers have advanced to the Eastern Conference Semifinals, where they are 8-4 all time. However, only 3 previous appearances came prior to LeBron James Era, though it should be noted that their last series victory at this stage without the 4-time MVP came against the Celtics in thrilling 7-game set back in 1992.

Playmaker to Watch: It's all about Mitchell, folks. The artist affectionately known as Spida put Cleveland on his back in their first-round conquest of Orlando, averaging 29.7 points on 45.9% shooting, 5.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 1.4 steals over the course of 7 grueling games. While he struggled from the perimeter (25.0%), he gutted his way through a bulky knee to finish off the upstart Magic, authoring a 50-point performance in a Game 6 defeat followed by another 39 points in Sunday afternoon's finale. In fact, only one player in playoff history has ever scored more combined points in a Game 6 and 7 (Allen Iverson in 2001), which speaks to the value of Mitchell as a crucial summer looms. Since arriving via trade to the Cavs 2 years ago, the 5-time All-Star has been heavily linked with an exit and given that he is up for an extension this summer, the success of his team in this series (and perhaps beyond) will go a long way towards deciding his future.

Meanwhile, the third consecutive postseason meeting between the Celtics (64-18) and their bitter rivals, the Heat, wasn't nearly as thrilling as either of their previous 2 encounters had proven to be. Instead of crossing paths in the Eastern Conference Finals, the last 2 champions of the east met in a first-round dud that was more notable for the names who were sidelined due to injury than those who played. After splitting the first 2 games in Beantown, (HC) Joe Mazzulla's troops got down to business and made an example of Miami; the Celtics won each contest by at least 14 points, shooting 47.8% from the field and 36.0% from downtown, while hammering them on the glass (+12.6) and shipping a mere 41.2% shooting overall. (All-Stars) Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were as advertised, combining 44.6 points, 17.4 rebounds, 7.6 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks, while (veteran Guard) Derrick White proved essential after Boston lost (sharpshooting Center) Kristaps Porzingis to a strained calf muscle. This team has been the best in the NBA for the bulk of the campaign, with their balance and depth oftentimes proving to be too much for the opposition. While it begs the question as to how much they will miss the presence of Porzingis in this matchup with Cleveland, it should be noted that they took 2 out of 3 meetings during the regular season; the shamrocks shot 45.8% from the field and 39.1% from three in those contests, while owning a +8.3 advantage from the charity stripe and outrebounding the Cavs by a sizeable margin (+8.6). Tatum was solid if unspectacular in those encounters, averaging 26.0 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, though shot just 38.5% from the field with nearly as many turnovers (9) as assists (10).

Things to Know: As they have throughout the season, the Celtics have earned the favor of the public, with roughly 64% of all bets placed coupled with approximately 73% of all money wagered on tonight's game going green. Despite coming into this opener with a sterling 68-19 record SU, it has been a very different story ATS for Boston, who have posted a 45-38-4 mark in that regard, equating to a net profit of 2.91 units. No team has been favored by 10.0+ points more often than Tatum & Co, who own a stellar 21-13-2 record in such games, which included 3 of their four victories in the first round. The home team has won 6 consecutive meetings between these teams, though the road side is actually 3-1-1 ATS. The Celtics have failed to cover 4 straight games as a favorite against the Cavs. Boston is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 contests as a home favorite of 11.0+ points. It will be interesting to see how much the loss of Porzingis impacts this team against Cleveland. The Heat were small and undermanned in the previous round, though if the aforementioned Allen returns to health, the same cannot be said of this particular matchup. At 7'2", 240 pounds, most associate the Latvian with his perimeter shooting (37.5% 3FG), but he has been a stellar rim deterrent (1.9 blocks) and rebounder (7.2). He is expected to miss the entirety of this series. Historically, the Celtics are no stranger to the Eastern Conference Semifinals, appearing for the 41st time (29-12). Boston has a storied history with Cleveland in the Playoffs, splitting 8 all-time encounters, with their most recent being the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals in which they were bested in overtime of Game 7 at TD Garden.

Playmaker to Watch: It would be easy to go with either Tatum or Brown here, but given Porzingis' absence, it has to be White. The veteran Guard has been one of the most underrated players in the NBA for a few years now, with his addition to the rotation helping turn Boston into such a juggernaut. The 29-year-old moved into Mazzulla's starting lineup last season and has been an immovable piece, averaging 15.2 points on 46.1% shooting and 39.6% from three, 4.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.2 blocks. However, he was decisive in their first-round conquest of Miami, logging 22.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.0 block on stellar shootings splits of 57.7%/47.7%/90.0%, erupting for 38 and 25 points in the final 2 games. White can facilitate the offense, provide spacing with his shooting prowess, finish at the rim, and defend four different positions, which will likely see him hound the aforementioned Mitchell all over the hardwood, making him the undisputed x-factor for the Celtics in not just Game 1, but the series as a whole.

Our Take: Celtics 112, Cavaliers 98