NBA Playoffs: (3) Minnesota Timberwolves @ (2) Denver Nuggets, Game 1

For just the second time in franchise history, the Timberwolves (56-26) find themselves in the Western Conference Semifinals, where they will continue a campaign that has been nothing short of a renaissance in Minneapolis. This last time that Minnesota was this good, they were led by 2003-2004 MVP Kevin Garnett and advanced all the way to the Western Conference Finals, which would be seen as a MAJOR steppingstone for this young team that has already come so far. So, what separates these Wolves from past packs, you ask? First and foremost, (All-Star Guard) Anthony Edwards is evolving into a legitimate superstar, which is something that this franchise hasn't had in two decades. Furthermore, (HC) Chris Finch has managed to clean up a lot of the inconsistencies that held his troops back over the previous few seasons, cultivating the NBA's toughest defense around the talents of a big, athletic roster, anchored by 3-time Defensive Player of the Year (and frontrunner to win a fourth) Rudy Gobert. The Wolves allowed just 106.5 points on 45.0% shooting, including 50.6% on two-point attempts, with a defensive rating of 109.0, all of which led the league. Furthermore, (newly minted 6th Man of the Year) Naz Reid leads the charge off the bench, while the return of a healthy Karl-Anthony Towns assures that there is no shortage of size or shooting in the Twin Cities.

Things to Know: The Timberwolves hype train is in full swing, folks, as a commanding 88% of all wagers placed on this opener favor Minnesota. Finch's troops are 44-41-1 ATS thus far, equating to a net loss of one unit. This has been a streaky team on that front, covering each of their last 4 games after a period in which they failed to do so in as many consecutive contests. These teams split their 4 regular season meetings, with Minnesota hammering Denver in their 2 victories by an average of 18.0 points per game. Edwards posted 26.0 points on 48.1% shooting, along with 4.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists against the reigning champs this season. Last year's encounter in the Playoffs served as his coming out party; the former #1 pick put up 31.6 points on 48.2% shooting, 5.0 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.8 steals, and 2.0 blocks during that 5-game affair. This series marks the second consecutive year in which Minnesota has crossed paths with Denver, who eliminated them in a "gentleman's sweep" in the first round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs. Historically, this is just the second time that the Wolves have ever advanced to the Western Conference Semifinals. Ironically, they bested the Nuggets in five games back in the 2004 NBA Playoffs to reach that stage, where they would go on outlast the Kings in a thrilling 7-game set.

Playmaker to Watch: Given his meteoric ascension to stardom, Edwards will be commanding the spotlight in this series and any that may follow for the Timberwolves. Now in his fourth campaign after being drafted first overall in the 2020 NBA Draft, the 2-time All-Star is emerging as a full-blown supernova. The sky is the limit for the 22-year-old, who posted career-highs in a slew of categories, including points (25.9), field goal percentage (46.1%), free-throw percentage (83.6%), and assists (5.1). Furthermore, it was awfully telling that in their first-round sweep of the Suns, a series littered with All-Stars, All-NBA selections, Defensive Players of the Year, and an MVP, that he managed to stand tall above all the rest; Edwards torched Phoenix to the tune of 31.0 points on 51.2% shooting and 43.8% from three, 8.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 2.0 steals. The Playoffs is where stars become superstars, and given what we've already seen from this guy, it won't be long before his name is mentioned alongside the Association's very best.

Meanwhile, for the second time in twelve months, the Nuggets (57-25) eliminated the Lakers in the Playoffs, this time doing so in five games in the first round. Denver looks absolutely primed to defend their NBA Title, their first in franchise history thanks to the continued brilliance of (reigning Finals MVP) Nikola Jokic and the timely contributions of the supporting cast. Despite trailing by 9+ points in all 5 games against Los Angeles, (HC) Mike Malone's charges were unfazed by the pressure, rallying back in stunning fashion to earn victory via a pair of walk-offs from (sharpshooting Guard) Jamal Murray. The first, a dramatic step-back fadeaway in the corner over Anthony Davis capped a 20-point rally to take Game 2, while his running floater to break the deadlock in Game 5 punched their ticket to the Western Conference Semifinal. Furthermore, when they needed an offensive rebound, they got it. When they needed a timely trey to stem the tide, they received it, when they needed to get their hands on a loose ball, they did so, which are things that come naturally for a team after winning a championship.

Things to Know: It appears that the public doesn't trust the Nuggets much at all in this opener, with just 12% of all bets wagered riding with the reigning champs. The money is telling a different story though, with 58% of the total sum wagered thus far favoring Denver. Malone's troops have covered just 2 of their last 7 encounters with the Wolves. This is a team that saw the biggest disparity between their SU record and their ATS ledger, with a staggering 21 games separating them. Denver 40-45-2 ATS thus far, equating to a net loss of 8.64 units. They have been much more profitable in that regard since the All-Star Break, owning an 18-14 record. Keep an eye on the line tonight, for Malone & Co are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 points, while 1-4 ATS in their past 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Denver began their run towards claiming their first-ever Larry O'Brien Trophy with a 4-1 series victory over Minnesota, in which the tandem of Jokic and Murray combined for an average of 53.4 points, 18.0 rebounds, and 15.4 assists. Historically, the Nuggets are 5-6 all-time in the Western Conference Finals, though are 2-2 during the Jokic Era (2015-present).

Playmaker to Watch: In this matchup with the Wolves, it has to be Jokic. The 2-time MVP (and frontrunner to win a third in 4 years) faces a very different test in this series, particularly in the form of Gobert. Minnesota's size, length, and physicality is the primary reason they were the top defensive team in the NBA this season, with the towering Frenchman anchoring the paint. Now we doubt that Jokic will be exclusively guarded by Gobert, whom the Wolves won't be keen on drifting too far away from the paint, but there is a plethora of tall, rangy, bigs that they can throw at the Serbian superstar without the need to double-team him. In last Spring's postseason conquest of their division rival, Jokic averaged 26.2 points on 48.5% shooting, including 50.0% from three, 12.4 rebounds, 9.0 assists, and 1.2 steals. This season, he authored even greater numbers against them, with 33.3 points on 58.4% shooting and 40.0% from downtown, 11.8 rebounds, and 4.3 assists.

Our Take: Nuggets 112, Timberwolves 106