NBA Playoffs: (3) Milwaukee Bucks @ (6) Indiana Pacers, Game 6

Trailing 1-3 with two Hall of Famers nursing wounds on the sidelines, the world left the Bucks (49-33) for dead as a second consecutive first-round elimination seemed destined. However, as things played out, Milwaukee had some more left in the tank, shaking off the disappointment and getting right back in this series after humbling the Pacers in a 115-92 victory on Tuesday night. Without (2-time MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo and (perennial All-NBA Guard) Damian Lillard, who have been nursing a calf strain and sore Achilles respectfully, these deer took it to Indiana from the opening tip. The hosts led by as many 27 points, shooting a blistering 52.4% from the field and 11-of-29 from beyond the arc (37.9%), while owning significant advantages from the charity stripe (+8), on the glass (+8), points in the paint (+8), and points off turnovers (+9). The duo of Khris Middleton and Bobby Portis (was ejected early on in Game 4) combined for 58 points and 22 rebounds, shooting a cumulative 23-of-44 from the field (52.2%). (HC) Doc Rivers's troops did a tremendous job of slowing down one of the fastest teams in the league, and with reinforcements on the way, this could be the moment that this series shifts in their favor. Prior to gametime, both Giannis and Dame were listed as game time decisions, though it remains to be seen if Rivers will risk either of them in this elimination scenario.

Things to Know: It seems that Tuesday night's blowout at FISERV Forum wasn't enough to rally the public to their cause, as only 41% of all bets placed on tonight's contest currently residing with the Bucks. However, it is far more level in terms of the money exchanging hands, with a 50/50 split between these teams. Milwaukee was one of the least-profitable teams in the Association this season, owning a 38-49 record ATS, equating to a net loss of 14.45 units. Rivers & Co have managed to cover back-to-back games just twice since March 6th. The Over has hit in 9 consecutive games for the Bucks following a an ATS win. Though the overall numbers would suggest that this series has been close, only one of these games has been decided by fewer than thirteen points. In both of Milwaukee's victories, their defense relegated the highest-scoring team in the NBA to 93.5 points on 41.8% shooting from the field, including 26.3% from beyond the arc, with 22.5 assists opposed to forcing 12.0 turnovers. Historically, this is a franchise that has NEVER won a series after trailing 1-3 (0-11), though they are 2-12 all-time when trailing 2-3. Of those instances, they have managed to force a Game 7 on 9 occasions, with the most recent being the 2021 Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Nets, whom the bested in Brooklyn in the seventh game.

Playmaker to Watch: With the status of both Antetokounmpo and Lillard in doubt once more, the supporting cast needs to step up like they did in Game 5, which includes Middleton, who was nothing short of sensational. The veteran swingman totaled 29 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 assists, while knocking down 4-of-7 treys (57.1%) and 7-of-9 free-throws (77.8%). Since being named to his third All-Star squad two years ago, Middelton has been beset by injuries, missing a total of 76 games, including 27 this season courtesy of lingering wrist and ankle maladies. One of the better two-way players in the NBA for nearly a decade, this is the guy who can hit the big shots (as we saw in their narrow Game 4 defeat) and make the necessary stops to push this series to a decisive seventh game back in Milwaukee.

Meanwhile, Tuesday night's embarrassing loss served as a reminder of the Pacers (47-35) collective youth. Anytime you beat an opponent 3 consecutive times and have your foot on their throat, you simply MUST take care of business, particularly when you're facing a wounded animal without two game-changing superstars. Alas, this is where we find Indiana, who after going for 120+ in each of three previous games, including a clutch 121-118 affair at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, proceeded to turn in arguably their ugliest performance of the series. Without the aforementioned Antetokounmpo and Lillard, (HC) Rick Carlisle's troops still managed to ship 115 points, while falling asleep at the proverbial wheel; the hosts were relegated to 44.4% shooting en route to being ousted 36-67 over the course of the second and third quarters. Furthermore, one of the fastest teams in the NBA was held to a mere 5 fast break points, while their thirteen turnovers turned into an untenable 23 points for the deer. Perhaps a return to Indianapolis will reignite their motor, for a trip back to FISERV Forum would be nothing short of disastrous for this unit.

Things to Know: Even after getting blown out by 27 points, the favor of the public has not wavered for the Pacers, with 62% of all bets placed riding with Carlisle & Co. However, the money being wagered is telling a very different story with the total volume of green being split right down the middle. Indiana was a solid play all season, posting a 46-39-2 record ATS equating to a narrow net profit of 2.82 units. This is a team that has alternated losses and wins for 11 games now. As such, Indy has bounced back well after defeat, putting together a 7-1 mark ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss by 10+ points. The Over has hit in each of their last 7 home games. Indiana is the highest-scoring team in the Association at 123.3 points per game, while ranking 4th in fast break points (16.6). It really has been feast-or-famine for the Pacers in this series, for in their 3 victories have averaged a healthy 124.0 points on 49.6% shooting and 39.8% from beyond the arc, where they have outscored the Bucks by a total of 48 points, while dishing out 34.3 assists in comparison to committing just 6.7 turnovers. This is a franchise that hasn't been gotten out of the first round in a decade, losing 5 straight series at this stage of the postseason. Carlisle hasn't been much better; since winning the 2011 NBA Finals with the Mavericks, he hasn't guided any of his teams past the first round in six tries. Historically, the Pacers are unbeaten in all series in which they have led 3-1 (7-0) and are 9-1 when leading 3-2, with their lone series defeat coming to the Knicks back in the 1994 Eastern Conference Finals.

Playmaker to Watch: At this point, it has to be Pascal Siakam. After all, the Pacers acted out of character and sold out to get the Cameroon International at the Trade Deadline, parting ways with three players and as many future first-round picks. An NBA Champion with the Raptors back in 2019, the 2-time All-NBA selection was added to bring some veteran experience, and some sorely needed 2-way production to a team that lacked legitimate size and length on the wings. After erupting for 36+ points and 11+ rebounds and shooting 64.5% in Games 1 and 2, Siakam has been fairly quiet in the last 3 contests, averaging just 14.0 points on 41.9% shooting along with 7.3 boards. As one of the youngest teams in the NBA, Indiana NEEDS a vet like him to help them shake off such an embarrassing loss, because if one thing is certain: NOBODY in the city of Indianapolis wants to see this series head back to Milwaukee.

Our Take: Bucks 111, Pacers 108