NBA Playoffs: (5) Dallas Mavericks @ (4) Los Angeles Clippers

For the third time in five years, the Mavericks (50-32) find themselves level with the Clippers through 4 games of an opening round series, though they hope that this matchup will end differently than either of its predecessors. Back in 2020, Dallas capitulated to Los Angeles in 6 games, followed by a 7-game epic in 2021 in which the Mavs crumbled despite owning a 3-2 series advantage. This time around, the general consensus would suggest that these teams are more evenly matched than they were three years ago, though (HC) Jas Kidd should be wary given that his troops have found themselves trailing by 30+ points twice in this series. In Game 1, the visitors were unable to mount much of a comeback after falling into such a deep hole, but Sunday's 111-116 loss at home was a very different story. Much like they were in the opener, the Mavericks were blindsided from the opening tip, falling behind by 31 points in the second quarter. However, the home side rallied back to take a 4-point lead in the fourth period before ultimately running out of gas down the stretch. Dallas was able to get back into the affair on the offensive glass (14-5) and at the charity stripe (+8), while (All-Stars) Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combined for 69 points, 17 rebounds, and 15 assists.

Things to Know: The public took note of Sunday's defeat, as only 14% of all bets are riding with the Mavericks, even if the overall money being wagered has proven to be far more level with 44% in their favor. At 50-36 ATS thus far, Dallas has been one of the more profitable teams in the NBA, sporting a net profit of 9.45 units. After enjoying a superb spell in which they went 16-2 ATS, Kidd's troops have cooled off on that front, covering just 2 of their last 6 games. The Mavs have covered 4 straight games played on Wednesday. The Under has hit six times in a row when this team is coming off an ATS loss. (Center) Danie Gafford, who arrived at the Trade Deadline, has more or less been played off the court in this series, with (Rookie) Dereck Lively II making more of an impact with 7.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks in 18.3 minutes of action. The other player added at the deadline, PJ Washington, is living up to his potential with 12.3 points on 46.2% shooting, with 5.5 rebounds, 1.8 steals, and 1.5 blocks, all the while being asked to shadow the Clippers' Paul George (much more on him in a bit). (Backup Guard) Tim Hardaway Jr. is listed as OUT for Game 5 due to a sprained right ankle. The veteran hasn't been much of a factor in this series, averaging just 3.0 points on 33.3% shooting in 11.0 minutes of action. Historically, the Mavericks are 9-7 all-time in series when tied at 2 games apiece, though each of their previous two encounters with Los Angeles have been level after 4 games and in each case, they were met with defeat. Statistically, the winner of Game 5 in such a series has gone on to win the set 82.8% of the time.

Playmaker to Watch: After Sunday's near comeback victory, who else but Irving can occupy this spot? With his team trailing by 31 points in the first half, the perennial All-Star dipped deep in his bag and put on a show for the faithful at American Airlines Center, totaling 40 points on a ridiculously efficient 14-of-25 shooting (56.0%) and 6-of-12 from downtown (50.0%), 7 rebounds, and 5 assists, even briefly giving the hosts the lead late in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks moved mountains to acquire him 18 months ago at the 2023 Trade Deadline, and though they missed the Playoffs altogether last Spring, Kyrie has been paying major dividends for quite a while now. In this series, the 2016 NBA Champion has averaged 28.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.8 steals on stellar shooting splits of 51.3%/48.5%/90.5%.

Meanwhile, the Clippers (51-31) are hoping all to hell that history repeats itself in this third encounter with the Mavericks, though if they are to advance once again, it looks like they will be forced to do so without the services of their biggest gun, (All-Star Forward) Kawhi Leonard. Coming into the Playoffs, the alarms were being sounded in Los Angeles when it was announced that the 2-time NBA Finals MVP received an injection to remedy persistent soreness in his knee, leaving his status for this series up in the air. As it turned out, Leonard missed Game 1, which his team won convincingly, before returning to the hardwood for Games 2 and 3, which each game coincidentally ending in defeat. Kawhi struggled in those contests too, averaging just 12.0 points on 45.8% shooting and 0-of-5 from three. (HC) Ty Lue opted to sit him in Sunday's 116-111 victory in Northern Texas, which saw the visitors race out to a commanding 31-point lead in the first half, only to subsequently blow said advantage, and then close out the victory thanks to clutch shots made by (All-Stars) James Harden and Paul George, who combined for 66 points, 12 rebounds, 15 assists, and 5 steals. The pair of stars shot a cumulative 23-of-36 from the field (63.8%) and an insane 11-of-15 from downtown (73.3%).

Things to Know: The Clippers have been fairly mediocre against the spread this season (40-46), equating to a net loss of 9.64 units. Since going on an absolute tear from the middle of November until the beginning of February, Los Angeles is just 19-18 SU and 12-25 ATS. Furthermore, they have logged back-to-back covers only twice during that stretch. Lue & Co have lived off their firepower from the perimeter thus far, owning a +30 advantage on three-pointers, though in their 2 victories it has been much greater; the Clips are 36-of-65 (55.3%) from three in those wins, parlaying to a commanding +45 advantage. After missing his second game of the series due to lingering soreness in his knee, Leonard has been listed as OUT for Game 5, with his return in this series uncertain. This must feel like deja vu for Lue, who has been without his leading man for the bulk of 3 different playoff runs now, which must be reviewed given the lucrative extension (3 years/$149.6 million) that he signed back in January. Historically, this is a franchise that is 5-10 in all series in which they are level after 4 games, though it should be noted that 2 of those conquests have come against the Mavericks.

Playmaker to Watch: PLAYOFF P. After being relegated to a mere 7 points on 3-of-11 shooting (27.3%) and 1-of-6 from beyond the arc (16.7%), George flipped the script with Leonard once again on the mend, erupting for 33 points on 11-of-19 shooting (57.9%) and a ridiculous 7-of-10 from downtown (70.0%), along with 6 rebounds, 8 assists, and 4 steals, all the while being asked to defend the aforementioned Doncic. Despite being one of the finest two-way performers in the NBA over the last decade, George is on the verge of embarking on an offseason of uncertainty with his return to Los Angeles by no means set in stone. Reports around the league indicate that the 33-year-old is expected to hit free agency where he is sure to be a hot commodity on the market.

Our Take: Mavericks 112, Clippers 106