NBA Playoffs: (7) Philadelphia 76ers @ (2) New York Knicks, Game 5

As this first-round series shifts back to Madison Square Garden, it is do-or-die for the 76ers (47-35), who find themselves staring down the barrel of elimination in Game Five. While there is a real argument to be made that this matchup with New York could easily be squared away at 2 games apiece, the reality of the matter is that Philadelphia trails 1-3, thanks in large part to their poor execution late in games and a perplexing inability to secure the basketball in clutch situations. Indeed, (HC) Nick Nurse's troops were one of the poorest rebounding teams in the NBA this season with a defensive rebound percentage of 74.3% (25th Overall), but this encounter with the bullish Knicks has seen said weakness exploited mercilessly; through four games, the Sixers have been outrebounded by 30 boards, including -25 on the offensive glass, which has led to a wealth of second-chance opportunities for their opponent, chief among them being the game-winning three-pointer that decided Game 2. Sunday's 97-92 defeat at home may have been the last straw, folks, as the hosts were bludgeoned 42-52 on the boards and 9-15 on the offensive end, which played a huge role in losing control of the affair during the second half. Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey combined for 50 points, 16 rebounds, 12 assists, and 4 steals, but both players shot well below 40.0% from the field, including a cumulative 2-of-13 (15.3%) in the fourth quarter.

Things to Know: With 4 games in the books, the public is fairly split on tonight's Game 5, with 45% of all bets placed siding with the 76ers. However, the money favors them a bit more, with 55% of the green residing in their corner. Philadelphia has been of the most successful teams in the NBA versus the spread this season, posting a 51-35-1 record ATS, equating to a net profit of 11.36 units. Granted, the Embiid factor needs to be addressed: the Sixers are 32-11 ATS when he starts, accounting for 62.7% of their total covers thus far. Nurse & Co are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 outings after a SU loss, while going 6-1 ATS in their past 7 road games. Philly has owned a strong advantage at the free-throw line in this series, knocking down 89-of-106 singles (84.0%), leading to a +18 differential through 4 games. The supporting cast has been pretty dreadful for the 76ers in this series, with the likes of Tobias Harris, who was third on the team in scoring, averaging 17.2 points on 48.7% shooting, has been relegated to just 8.8 points on 39.5% shooting and 25.0% from three in the Playoffs. During the Embiid Era (2016-present), Philadelphia is 3-6 SU when facing elimination.

Playmaker to Watch: At this point, it has got to be Embiid. The reigning MVP has endured an up-and-down series as he continues to work his way back into form following surgery to repair a torn lateral meniscus in his left knee that cost him 29 games. While Philadelphia won 8 consecutive games after his return, this matchup with the New York has been a mixed bag for the big fella, who despite averaging 35.0 points has shot below 42.0% in all but one of these four contests. Sure, he erupted for 50 points in Game 3, but Sunday's defeat served as evidence that Embiid still isn't quite right yet. The Cameroon International finished with 27 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals in Game 4, though he shot 7-of-19 from the field (36.8%) and 1-of-6 from downtown (16.7%), with nearly half of scoring production coming from the charity stripe (12-of-14 FT). Furthermore, he was virtually invisible in the fourth quarter, logging only one point on 0-of-5 shooting. Reports from Madison Square Garden revealed that Embiid missed today's shootaround due to a migraine, which may or may not be an omen for tonight's fateful affair...

Meanwhile, the Knicks (50-32) find themselves one game away from advancing to their second consecutive Eastern Conference Semifinals, as this series shifts back to Madison Square Garden for Game 5. If there has ever been a team that has taken on the identity of their Head Coach, it is New York, who have become a splitting image of Tom Thibodeau. Physical, tenacious, and more than comfortable with "playing in the mud", these Knickerbockers have been thrived off of swarming to the basketball and bludgeoning Philadelphia in the paint. In a series in which they are -6 from beyond the arc, -18 from the charity stripe, and -8 on assists, while shooting just 43.0% from the field, the difference has come on the glass (which covered at length earlier) and in the paint, with those two being directly linked to each other. Offensive rebounds oftentimes lead to easy second-chance opportunities at the rim, which has led to a commanding +50 advantage for the Knicks, or in other words a difference of 12.5 points per game. In Sunday's 97-92 victory, nearly half of their total points came in the paint (44), heavily influenced by 15 offensive rebounds. Of course, a franchise playoff record 47 points courtesy of (All-Star Guard) Jalen Brunson doesn't hurt either.

Things to Know: The Knicks have also been one of the more profitable teams in the NBA this season, posting a 47-38-1 record ATS thus far, equating to a net profit of 4.73 units. Sunday's victory in Philadelphia marked only their second cover in six games. New York has taken 6 of the last 8 meetings between these teams, covering 5 of them along the way. Thibodeau's troops are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 outings after a SU win. Balance has been key for the Knickerbockers, with 6 different players averaging double-figures in points. The Villanova trio of Brunson, Josh Hart, and Donte DiVincenzo have combined for 59.8 points, 21.1 rebounds, 15.0 assists, and 2.3 steals through 4 games, along with a cumulative 27-of-76 from beyond the arc (35.5%). The Knicks were the top offensive rebounding team in the Association this season, with a 12.7 boards per game and a percentage of 29.4%. They have been even more tenacious in this regard in the Playoffs, with 15.2 offensive boards and a percentage of 33.9%, which clock in at well above their year-long statistics. (Centers) Isaiah Hartenstein and Micthell Robinson have been key here with a combined 27 thus far, but Hart has been the wild card; the most prolific rebounding Guard in the NBA, he has crashed the glass for 51 total boards this far, including 16 of the offensive variety. Historically, the Knicks are 9-1 all-time in best-of-seven series when leading 3-1, with their only defeat coming at the hands of the Heat during their iconic rivalry back in the last 90's.

Playmaker to Watch: Who else could it be than Brunson? The All-Star is becoming quite the legend in the Big Apple, averaging 33.0 points despite shooting 40.5% from the field and just 25.9% from three, though has had his fingerprints all over this series, with 5.3 rebounds, 9.0 assists, and 31-of-38 free-throws (81.6%). The Villanova alum reveled in his return to city where he led the Wildcats to a pair of National Championships in three years, erupting for 47 points on an efficient 18-of-34 shooting (52.9%) and 9-of-11 from the stripe (81.8%), along with 4 rebounds and 10 assists to boot. Brunson logged 9 points in the fourth quarter, including three crucial free-throws down the stretch en route to surpassing (Hall of Famer) Bernard King's franchise playoff scoring record.

Our Take: Knicks 99, 76ers 93