NBA Playoffs: (7) Los Angeles Lakers @ (2) Denver Nuggets, Game 5

For the second time in 3 days, the Lakers (47-35) attempt to stave off elimination, though it remains to be seen if they have what it takes to become the first teams in NBA history to successfully rally from an 0-3 deficit. In fact, only 3 teams have EVER managed to force a Game 7, which means that the proverbial deck is stacked against the Purple & Gold. We've said it before, but this is simply a poor matchup for Los Angeles, who is really paying for their struggles throughout the first third of the campaign. Do we think that they would have fared better against any other opponent out west? Sure, but this affair has been nothing but an exercise in frustration for (HC) Darvin Ham and his troops. Consider this: the Lakers have held sizeable leads of 12+ points in all four games, have held Denver to a mere 27.6% shooting from beyond the arc, and have even kept Jamal Murray, who KILLED them in last year's sweep in the Western Conference Finals, to shooting splits of 38.0%/20.8%. They've also had a healthy duo of LeBron James and Anothony Davis combining for a ridiculous 57.8 points, 22.1 rebounds, 12.3 assists, 2.5 steals, and 2.8 blocks, yet are still trailing by 3 games in this series. Indeed, Game 4's 119-108 victory seemed anticlimactic for the Purple & Gold, who finally bested an opponent that had tormented them to the tune of 11 straight losses. The difference here was for the first time in this series, the hosts dominated both the paint and the glass. Coming into Saturday's encounter, Los Angeles was -29 in rebounds and -16 in points in the paint, though flipped the script thanks to 25 points and 23 rebounds from Davis.

Things to Know: It appears that the public has seen enough, with just 28% of all bets placed on tonight's affair riding on the Lakers. As is usually the case with Los Angeles, they have been mediocre team ATS (41-46), equating to a net loss of 8.73 units thus far. After a period in which they had covered 6 out of 9 games during their push for the Playoffs, that spread success has dried up of late, with a 4-5 ATS mark over their last 9 games. Saturday night's victory snapped an 11-game losing streak to the Nuggets, though Ham & Co have covered 4 of those encounters. The Purple & Gold are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 outings following an ATS win and are 1-9 in their last 10 games following a SU win of 10+ points. Despite trailing 1-3 in this series, Los Angeles has held leads of 12+ points in EVERY contest. Historically, the Lakers are 0-9 all-time when losing the first 3 games of a series, with this particular matchup being the only time that they have ever forced a Game 5 under such circumstances.

Playmaker to Watch: At this point, it simply must be James. He and the Lakers responded strongly with their backs against the wall on Saturday night, avoiding a second successive sweep at the hands of the Nuggets. However, do they have what it takes to pull that trick once again? The 4-time MVP's fingerprints are littered all over this series, with 27.3 points on 57.7% shooting, including 36.8% from three, 6.3 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.3 blocks in nearly 40 minutes of action a night, though that has only been enough to take a single game from the reigning champs. There has been an awful lot of discourse regarding LeBron's legacy of late (admittedly due to his own machinations), though pulling off an historic comeback from an 0-3 deficit, which has never been done before, would be yet another accolade for a man who is certainly no stranger to them.

Meanwhile, Saturday's defeat aside, the Nuggets (57-25) appear more than ready to defend their Larry O'Brien Trophy. The fact that they have managed to so casually handle the Lakers, who had been playing at a high level since the All-Star Break, should serve as concrete proof that they are up to the task. As we've covered before, Denver has grown adept at taking the best that their opponent has had to offer, only to return that tenfold. The key has come in the second halves of these games; (HC) Mike Malone & Co have trailed at halftime in every installment of this series, only to outscore Los Angeles by 44 points after intermission, shooting well over 48.0% from the field in each second half, while dishing out 60 assists in comparison to committing just fifteen turnovers. Simply put, that is EFFICIENT basketball, folks. (Newly-minted 3-time MVP) Nikola Jokic continues to be sublime with 29.0 points, 15.3 rebounds, 10.0 assists, and 1.5 steals on shooting splits of 59.7%/38.5%/92.6%, while the rest of the supporting cast, including Michael Porter Jr. (much more on him shortly), Jamal Murray, whose walk-off capped a 20-point comeback in Game 2, and Aaron Gordon have all enjoyed their moments in the sun. With Minnesota successfully eliminating Phoenix last night, it would behoove the champs to take care of business tonight at Ball Arena, setting up what should for all intents and purposes be a thoroughly entertaining affair in the Western Semifinals.

Things to Know: While an overwhelming percentage of total bets have been placed on the Nuggets in this Game 5, only 32% of all of the money wagered favors them. This could be due to their penchant for winning without covering: no team in the NBA owns a bigger disparity between SU record (60-26) and ATS record (40-44-2), equating to a 20-game difference and a net loss of 7.64 units. With that being said, Denver has been one of the most profitable plays since the All-Star Break, owning a 24-7 SU record since the February 22nd, including a stellar 18-13 mark ATS. While this series has statistically been close, Malone & Co have beaten Los Angeles on the glass convincingly (+23), particularly on the offensive end where they are +21 with a stellar percentage of 25.7%. They have also routinely made the Lakers pay for their mistakes, owning a +22 advantage in points off turnovers. During the Jokic Era (2018-present), this is a team that is 8-4 when given the opportunity to eliminate their opponent. Reportedly, Jokic has earned his THIRD MVP award in the last 4 years, putting him in very good company; Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6), Michael Jordan (5), Bill Russell (5), Wilt Chamberlain (4), LeBron James (4), Moses Malone, Larry Bird, and Magic Johnson have all reached that threshold.

Playmaker to Watch: Jokic and Murray aside, who about we shine a light on Porter Jr? The young Swingman has enjoyed an interesting career path, missing most of his collegiate career and his entire rookie campaign due to a back injury, though has gradually become an indispensable member of Malone's rotation. The 6'10" sharpshooter averaged 16.7 points on 48.4% shooting and 39.7% from downtown this season, while playing no small role in their advantage over the Lakers thus far. Through 4 games, the 25-year-old has made Los Angeles pay for all the attention that they've given Jokic and Murray, posting 22.0 points on an efficient 53.1% shooting and a lethal 15-of-34 from beyond the arc (44.1%), along with 9.5 rebounds to boot. Furthermore, the flamethrower has accounted for 40.5% of all the treys that Denver has buried thus far, providing valuable spacing in the process.

Our Take: Nuggets 108, Lakers 99