NBA Playoffs: (1) Boston Celtics @ (8) Miami Heat

On the surface, many will likely be surprised that the mighty Celtics (64-18), who finished with NBA's best record by a margin of 7 games, would be level against the Heat in this first-round affair. However, Boston has a bit of a history of starting slow in the Playoffs (I.E. last year's 7-game series against Atlanta), while each of their two previous encounters with Miami, going the distance as well. (HC) Jo Mazzulla's charges handled their business with ease in Game 1 (114-94), though let Wednesday night's 101-111 successor get away from them. Clinging to a narrow 61-58 lead at halftime, the hosts could not maintain their sweet shooting post-intermission, netting just 13-of-33 attempts from the field (39.4%), including 4-of-12 from downtown (33.3%). After posting a triple-double in Game 1, (All-NBA Swingman) Jayson Tatum totaled 28 points on 10-of-20 shooting (50.0%), 8 rebounds, and 3 assists, while (fellow All-Star) Jaylen Brown led the way with 33 points on an even better 13-of-23 shooting (56.5%). Unfortunately, the rest of the home side could muster just 40 points on 14-of-37 shooting (37.3%), with the combined effort from imported veterans, Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, who have been such a hit in Beantown, finishing at a meager 15 points.

Things to Know: Wednesday night's loss aside, the public remains all over the Celtics, evidenced by a whopping 94% of all bets placed on them for Game 3. While they owned the best record in the NBA by a wide margin, Boston was little better than average when it came to the spread (42-38-4), equating to a net profit of just 0.18 units. As reason for this is due to being favored by 10+ points 34 times, with a ledger of 18-14-2 in such contests. Mazzulla's troops haven't covered back-to-back games since March 23rd (14 games). They have, however, failed to cover consecutive games on just three occasions since February 14th. After burning down the nylon on 22-of-49 shooting (44.9%) from beyond the arc in Game 1, the shamrocks were held to 12-of-32 (37.5%) in Game 2. This is a team that is a staggering 37-3 when they make 17+ treys this year, though are a mere mortal 6-8 when they knock down 12 or fewer. Despite committing fewer turnovers (13), the Celtics were made to pay for their mistakes far more than the visitors, with -11 disparity in points via giveaways. Through two games, the dynamic duo of Tatum and Brown has combined for 50.5 points, 17.0 rebounds, 8.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks. In franchise history, Boston is 3-2 after splitting the first two games of a series dating back to 2019.

Playmaker to Watch: This has to be (sharpshooting Center) Kristaps Porzingis, who laid one hell of an egg on Wednesday night. The towering Latvian has been a huge reason why the Celtics have been so effective this season, with his two-way value as a perimeter shooter and rim-protector raising their level on both ends of the hardwood. In Game 1, Porzingis totaled 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 blocks, while shooting 7-of-13 from the field (53.8%) and 4-of-8 from downtown (50.0%). However, Game 2 was a very different story, as the seven-footer was held to a mere 6 points on 1-of-9 shooting (11.1%) and 0-of-4 from three. Sure, he did contribute in other ways with 8 boards, 4 dimes, 3 steals, and 2 blocks, but that kind of shooting line is nothing short of detrimental in the Playoffs.

Meanwhile, for those who have been paying attention to the Heat (46-36) over the last two years, this is NOT your average eighth seed. Hell, we saw this story play out last year as Miami barely escaped the Play-In to upset the top-seeded Bucks in the first round, becoming only the fourth team to ever pull off that feat, before going on to eliminate the Knicks and Celtics in succession on their way to their second NBA Finals appearance in 5 years. The only difference this time around is the absence of (perennial All-Star) Jimmy Butler, who unfortunately suffered a sprained MCL in his right during the first leg of the Play-In last week. With that being said, there aren't many teams in the Association more equipped to handle the loss of their star than (HC) Eric Spoelstra's troops. After getting utterly annihilated in Game 1, the Heat flipped the script in Beantown, largely by giving the Celtics a taste of their own medicine. The visitors shot a staggering 23-of-43 from beyond the arc (53.5%), outscoring the home side by 33 points in that regard. (Young Guard) Tyler Herro thrived in moving to the point, posting 24 points and a career-high 14 assists, with two of his teammates, Bam Adebayo and Caleb Martin crossing the 20-point threshold as well. Furthermore, 5 different players knocked down at least 3 treys, with Herro pacing them all on 6-of-11 shooting from downtown (54.5%).

Things to Know: Despite an overwhelming majority of wagers placed on their opponent, the money is telling a very different story here, as 79% of all that green is siding with the team draped in red. The Heat have also been slightly above average in terms of the spread this season (43-40-3), equating to a net loss of 0.91 units. Spoelstra's troops are 12-6 ATS over their last 18 games. This is a team that has covered 5 straight games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. However, they are also 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog. The Under has hit 5 times in a row when the Heat are a home underdog. While Butler has been shut down for this series due to that sprained MCL, (Veteran Guard) Terry Rozier is unlikely to face his former employers tonight thanks to ongoing neck spams that have kept him out of action for 6 games. He was acquired at the Trade Deadline with designs on bolstering their stagnant offense. This is third consecutive year that Miami has met Boston in the Playoffs, and the sixth time that they have left TD Garden victorious. However, they are just 2-5 against them in those series when the venue as shifted to Kaseya Center. In franchise history, the Heat are 12-12 all-time after splitting the first two games of a series.

Playmaker to Watch: Who else but Herro? With Butler sidelined for this series, the Heat absolutely NEED the 24-year-old to fill the void on the offensive end of the hardwood. In his fifth season in Miami, the 2021-2022 Sixth Man of the Year suited up for just 42 games, all but 2 as a full-fledged starter, en route to averaging a career-high 20.8 points on 44.1% shooting, including 39.6% from three, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. Remember, Herro missed virtually all of his team's run to the NBA Finals last Spring due to a broken hand and is keen on making an impact in the third chapter in this trilogy against Boston.

Our Take: Celtics 116, Heat 105