Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

For the second weekend in a row, Saturday plays host to the National Football League as a pair of bitter rivals desperate to mount one final postseason push clash at Acrisure Stadium, as the revitalized Cincinnati Bengals look to deal a death blow to the fading Pittsburgh Steelers. This matchup is intriguing for a variety of reasons though none more so than the changes that both teams have made at Quarterback and how those moves have affected them each of the last month. For the Bengals (8-6, 3rd in AFC North), the campaign was playing out in a similar fashion as each of the previous two campaigns had, with these cats overcoming a slow start to catch fire during the month of October. However, whereas Cincinnati was ultimately able to parlay each run into a length postseason journey, this Fall saw them dealt the cruelest of blows as (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury in a midweek loss to Baltimore back on November 16th. Needless to say, it has been quite the ride for Burrow, who after suffering a serious calf strain early in Training Camp was held out of action until the season opener, where he was manhandled by the Browns (3-24) and then the Ravens (24-27) in succession. With that said, the former number one overall pick would eventually work his way back into shape, leading Cincy to a 5-4 mark before that ill-fated trip to Charm City. With the fulcrum of the offense out of commission, (Head Coach) Zac Taylor turned to the unheralded Jake Browning, who after a similar slow start has found his footing and led his team to three consecutive victories, vaulting them right back into the playoff hunt. Credit to both coach and Quarterback for this turnaround, for it has been impressive to watch Taylor and his staff craft an effective game plan each week with Browning (pictured below) under center, while the undrafted passer has executed it with aplomb. Over the last three weeks, the Bengals have averaged 31.7 points on 418.0 total yards, including 302.3 yards via the right arm of the former Washington star, who has tossed five touchdowns opposed to three interceptions. Cincinnati has done a solid job of protecting the 27-year-old, yielding just seven sacks, while employing a more balanced approach than when Burrow was sitting in the pocket, attempting 28.3 rushes for 115.7 yards, which allows Taylor to implement play action and other creative plays to make use of their weapons on the perimeter. It is also telling that this Browning has proven so cool in the clutch, with two of these three victories coming in overtime. In the fourth quarter and extra period he has completed an efficient 69.3% of his passes on 6.9 net yards per attempt, with nineteen first downs, four total touchdowns and most importantly, ZERO turnovers. This was the case in last Saturday’s 27-24 triumph over the Minnesota, who led 17-3 entering the fourth quarter and then retook the lead late in the final stanza. After tossing an interception to kick off the second half, Browning engineered three consecutive touchdown drives, including the game-tying 21-yard touchdown to (veteran Receiver) Tee Higgins, whose extension into the end zone topped many highlight reels. From there, it was onto overtime where both teams punted on their opening possessions. The Vikings would turn it over on downs on a failed QB sneak from the hosts’ 43-yard line, allowing Cincy to march all the way down to their opponent’s 11-yard line, aided greatly by a 44-yard completion to (veteran Wideout) Tyler Boyd, setting up (young Kicker) Evan McPherson for the game-winning 29-yard field goal. In the end, Browning completed 29-of-42 passes to eleven different targets for 324 yards, two scores and an interception, with Higgins scoring both touchdowns, including a 13-yarder to begin the rally. (Veteran Cornerback) Mike Hilton enjoyed a strong showing with an interception, and two defended passes, while (Pro-Bowl Edge-Rusher) Trey Hendrickson added 1.5 sacks, reaching a career-high of fifteen on the season.

From a betting perspective, the Bengals may be 8-6 straight-up, but they have been far less-rewarding against the spread, posting a 6-7-1 record in that regard thus far. Cincinnati once again got off to one of their signature slow starts, failing to cover any of their first four games, only to respond with four consecutive wins and covers before everything came to a halt with Burrow’s season-ending injury. Taylor’s troops would proceed to run off three straight losses/non-covers, capped by an ugly loss to the Steelers, before circling the proverbial wagons and ripping off three outright wins in a row (2-0-1 ATS). This evening’s trip to Pittsburgh marks the third time this Fall that they have been favored on the road, splitting the first two outings admittedly with a much healthier cast of characters. Cincy is 6-4 against the spread in their last ten trips away from Southern Ohio, while covering three of their last four contests as a favorite. Furthermore, with last weekend’s overtime triumph, they are now unbeaten versus the spread in SIX straight Saturday affairs (4-0-2 ATS), while amassing a stellar 4-0-1 record in their last five outings as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 points. With that being said, they have struggled MIGHTILY against their brethren in the AFC North, having failed to cover SIX consecutive meetings with division rivals (0-5-1 ATS). Looking at this particular matchup, the road teams have generally held the edge in this series of late (4-1 ATS since 2021), with the two sides alternating the last four encounters. When they met back in late November, the Bengals were ousted at home in a 10-16 tilt that saw Taylor’s offense without any answers in the wake of Burrow’s injury. Even with the extra three days of preparation, they struggled like never before, mustering just 222 total yards on ten first downs, including a scant TWENTY-FIVE rushing yards on eleven carries, and 2-of-10 on third down en route to possessing the pigskin for a mere 22:43 of game time. In the first start of his professional career, Browning completed 19-of-26 passes for 227 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while suffering four sacks, five hits, and six pressures. (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Ja’Marr Chase hauled in four receptions for eighty-four yards, while (veteran Tight End) Drew Sample’s only catch of the afternoon was an 11-yard touchdown. On the injury front, Chase suffered a separated shoulder in last weekend’s win over the Vikings and is expected to miss some time as a result, though Taylor was coy as to how much time that would actually be with only three games left in the regular season. Unfortunately, it is a far more definitive situation for (veteran Defensive Tackle) D.J. Reader, who tore his quadriceps in that same tilt, ending his year in the process. Furthermore, (Sophomore Cornerback) Cam Taylor-Britt is expected to miss this evening’s contests with a high ankle sprain that has forced him to injured reserve, missing the last four games. Looking ahead, if the Bengals are to complete this push for a third consecutive postseason appearance, then are going to have to earn it, for after this trip to Pittsburgh, they must travel to Arrowhead for a date with the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Chiefs before closing out the regular season the way the opened it against the Browns.

Meanwhile, though their opponent has found a new lease on life with their transition to a backup passer, the Steelers (7-7, Last in AFC North) are instead watching what had been a promising campaign unravel before their eyes. For two seasons now, the offense in Western Pennsylvania has failed to come remotely close to meeting expectations, with this latest nosedive potentially tarnishing the ledger of (longtime Head Coach) Mike Tomlin, who in his sixteen previous seasons in Pittsburgh has yet to log a losing record. Then again, when you look at the season in its totality to this point, this always appeared to be the inevitable outcome. Despite their promising 7-4 start, there was a prevailing feeling that their success was ultimately fool’s gold; the Black & Yellow were remarkably outgained in terms of total yardage in each of their first ten games, becoming the first side in NFL history to reach seven wins despite such an offensive disparity. This prompted Tomlin to do something that he had refrained from doing in his time with the franchise: make an in-season change at either coordinator position. Thus, (embattled Offensive Coordinator) Matt Canada, who had served as the culprit of their offensive woes for three seasons, was fired from his post. Looking at the numbers, it is hard to argue that he didn’t earn his fate; the Steelers averaged just 16.6 points on 280.1 total yards, including a dismal 170.0 yards through the air on 5.1 net yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns opposed to six interceptions, while the unit as a whole could convert just 34.5% of their third downs. Taking over for Canada was the tandem of (Running Backs Coach) Eddie Faulkner and (Quarterbacks Coach) Mike Sullivan, and while their debut was promising (much more on that in a bit), the offense quickly regressed to its former levels. During this 3-game losing streak, Faulkner and Sullivan have presided over an attack that has managed a miserable 13.7 points per contest on 265.6 total yards, including 170.3 yards via the pass on 5.4 net yards per attempt, with as many interceptions (3) as touchdowns, and a third down conversion rate of 29.3%. Of course, this swoon has coincided with the loss of (Sophomore Quarterback) Kenny Pickett, who suffered a high-ankle sprain that required surgery a week after that aforementioned offensive explosion. Say what you will about Pickett, but he has proven to be the most competent passer on Tomlin’s roster, as (veteran QB) Mitch Trubisky did nothing to endear himself to the Steelers faithful during his time on the field thus far; in five appearances, the former second overall pick (2018), has completed just 62.6% of his throws for an average of 126.4 yards on 5.18 net yards per attempt, with four touchdowns in comparison to five interceptions. When we last saw him, he and his team unraveled on the road in a 13-30 loss at Indianapolis, in which Pittsburgh blew an early 13-0 lead. Indeed, the visitors started strong, for after an opening three-and-out, they put together a 12-play, 54-yard drive that bled over six minutes of game time, culminating in a touchdown from (young Tailback) Najee Harris, who recovered a short rushing attempt into the end zone fumbled by Trubisky. Then, after Tomlin’s troops blocked the ensuing punt to take over at Indy’s 1-yard line, Trubisky found (veteran Wideout) Diontae Johnson for the score to stretch their lead to thirteen points. Unfortunately, that is where the momentum shifted in favor of the hosts, who would then score the final THIRTY points of the evening. This truly was a calamity of errors for the Steelers, who were picked off on their next possession, fumbled away their opening drive of the second half, were intercepted again midway through the fourth quarter, and turned away on downs afterward. In the end, the visiting side totaled a mere 216 yards of offense on thirteen third downs, were held to seventy-four rushing yards on twenty-four carries, converted 4-of-12 third downs, were flagged eight times for a loss of 101 yards, lost the takeaway battle 0-3, and held the pigskin for a mere 26:40. Simply put, apart from one single sustained drive, this was about as ugly of a performance as they’ve seen in Western Pennsylvania in quite some time. For his part, Trubisky completed 16-of-23 passes for 169 yards, with that touchdown to Johnson and two interceptions, while taking three sacks, along with nine hits and pressures apiece. (Sophomore Tailback) Jaylen Warren, whom many would argue hasn’t featured enough this Fall, amassed sixty-eight yards from scrimmage on fifteen touches, while Johnson and (fellow Wideout) George Pickens combined for 109 yards and seven receptions. It didn’t take long for Tomlin to bench to Trubisky in favor of (longtime backup) Mason Rudolph, who has been with the franchise for since 2019, coming in during the fourth quarter and completing a pair of passes. Tomlin has stated that Rudolph (pictured below) will serve as the starter until Pickett can return from injury, which isn’t the most relieving news for their fan base; the 28-year-old has made ten starts over the course of his career, posting a 5-4-1 record along the way, completing 61.5% of his throws for 131.6 yards on 5.51 net yards per attempt, with sixteen touchdowns and eleven interceptions, though most of you will likely remember him for getting pummeled with his own helmet courtesy of Myles Garrett.

From a betting perspective, the Steelers have been just as rewarding against the spread as they have straight-up, which isn’t saying much seeing as how they are .500 in both regards. After a strong first half of the campaign in which they covered the spread in six of their first nine outings, this is a team that has since lost and failed to over four of the ensuing five contests. Granted, that swoon has coincided with the loss of the aforementioned Pickett, who suffered that aforementioned ankle injury midway through an eventual 10-24 loss at home to the Cardinals, which kicked off this run three consecutive defeats/non-covers. This evening’s affair will mark the fifth time this Fall in which Pittsburgh has been an underdog at Acrisure Stadium, which is marks the most such occasions in a single season since the turn of the century. Building off that, Tomlin’s troops are 6-4 against the spread in their last ten games overall as a dog, though have dropped each of their last three such affairs earlier this season. With that being said, there is at least one trend working in their favor this week: they are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games after scoring fewer than fifteen points in the previous outing, which is the case today. Looking at this particular matchup, the road team has won and covered four of the last five encounters, including each of the last three meetings. They split their two tilts from last Fall, with each side winning on the other’s home turf, while the Steelers did so once more in their trip to Paycor Stadium earlier this season. Make no mistake this was a defensive struggle in Southern Ohio, folks, which generally favors the Black & Yellow, who emerged victorious in an affair that featured just two touchdowns and four field goals, including three from (veteran Kicker) Chris Boswell. Interestingly, this was Pittsburgh’s first game after parting ways with the aforementioned Canada, which resulted in their finest offensive showing of the campaign. Sure, they may have only put up sixteen points, but they produced 421 total yards on twenty-two first downs, including 153 rushing yards on thirty-three carries, and converted 8-of-17 third downs en route to possessing the football for a commanding 37:17. Seriously, the visitors did everything BUT score multiple touchdowns in the first and only game of the year in which they outgained an opponent in total yardage. However, Pickett, who completed 24-of-33 passes for 278 yards in this one, is obviously out of commission, which makes a reprisal of this performance unlikely, particularly as the baton is passed to Rudolph. On the injury front, (veteran Guard) Isaac Seumalo is listed as questionable with an ailing shoulder, while (Cornerback) Damontae Kazee will miss the rest of the campaign after being suspended for one too many illegal hits. Furthermore, (veteran defenders) Cameron Heyward (concussion) and Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) have practiced lightly throughout the week, though that is to be expected at this stage of schedule. Looking ahead, a loss today may not be the end of the Steelers’ postseason hopes, but it will make it very difficult to see them come to fruition with the likes of the Seahawks and Ravens awaiting them on the road.

Projected Outcome: Bengals 19, Steelers 17