NBA Playoffs: (3) Minnesota Timberwolves @ (6) Phoenix Suns, Game 3

It has been quite a while since there was a buzz like this over the Timberwolves (56-26), who despite stumbling a bit down the stretch and failing to secure the number one seed in the Western Conference, have nonetheless raced out to a commanding 2-0 lead in this first-round series. Indeed, Minnesota is changing the narrative that this was a poor matchup on their end, for after getting swept by Phoenix during the regular season (0-3), they have DOMINATED their opponent on both ends of the hardwood. With 2 games in the books, (HC) Chris Finch's charges have outscored the visitors by an average margin of 18.5 points, thanks in large part to the exploits of (All-Star Guard) Anthony Edwards and the top-ranked defense in the NBA. The Wolves led the league in points allowed (106.5), defensive rating (109.0), field goal percentage (45.0%) and two-point percentage (50.6%). In Tuesday night's 105-93 victory at Target Center, which was much closer than its predecessor (120-95), the hosts planted their flag at the charity stripe (26-of-30 FT), where they were +11 on free-throws, while turning the game in their favor via a staggering 31 points off turnovers. 6 different players scored in double-figures, led by (young Forward) Jayden McDaniels with 25 points on 10-of-17 shooting (58.8%), 8 rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal, while Edwards made up for a poor shooting night (3-of-12 FG) with 5 rebounds, 8 assists, 3 steals, and a block.

Things to Know: Despite leading this series 2-0, the public isn't buying into the Timberwolves tonight, as only 27% of all bets are aligned with the visitors. Then again, Minnesota has lost 6 consecutive games in Phoenix, with their last victory coming back in March of 2021. Finch & Co have been merely average ATS this season (42-41-1), equating to a net loss of 2.82 units. Their 2 covers in this series have put to rest a dismal 2-7 stretch for the Wolves, who have covered back-to-back games for the first time since enjoying a string of six in a row back in mid-March. This is a team that has now covered 4 straight first-round games dating back to last season. The Under has hit on each of the last 4 occasions after Minnesota has won by 10+ points in the previous game. Despite being the NBA's top-ranked defense, Finch's troops have been firing on all cylinders on the offensive end, averaging 112.5 points on 47.6% shooting. The Timberwolves have DOMINATED the Suns in the paint (100-74), but the most telling stat is points off turnovers, where they are +33 points. As a franchise, this is only the SECOND time that these wolves have held a 2-0 lead in a series, with the only other instance being the first round of the 2004 Playoffs, when they eliminated the Nuggets in 5 games.

Playmaker to Watch: Who else but Edwards? The Playoffs are where legends are made and he former #1 overall pick appears hellbent on establishing his legacy. Through the first 2 game of this series, Edwards has taken the initiative and gone toe-to-toe with Durant, averaging 24.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 2.5 steals, while posting some serious shooting splits of 47.2%/42.9%/80.0%. After erupting for 33 points in Game 1, he found it difficult to replicate that performance on Tuesday night, shooting 25.0% from the field, though as touched upon earlier, has demonstrated multiple ways to affect a game apart from simply scoring the basketball. Still just 22-years old, he will be counted upon to carry this form with him on the road, where it becomes even harder to knock down shots.

Meanwhile, it is safe to say that this is NOT what the Suns (49-63) had in mind when they drew the Wolves in this first-round matchup. After all, Phoenix swept their three meetings with Minnesota during the regular season with relative ease (+15.6 points), which included a 97-87 victory in the desert on April 5th, followed by a decisive 125-106 thumping of them in the finale in Minneapolis a week later. Given the outcome of those encounters, (HC) Frank Vogel's troops were a trendy pick to pull an upset in the first round of the Playoffs, though you wouldn't know it after watching Games 1 and 2. Simply put, the Suns have been manhandled thus far and now find themselves staring down the barrel of an 0-2 hole for the second postseason in a row. After getting utterly dog-walked on Saturday, the second chapter was closer albeit with the same outcome; Phoenix closed the gap on the glass (+2) and in the paint (-8) but were ultimately done in by their inability to take care of the basketball, committing more turnovers (20) than assists (19). This has been an ongoing issue for a team that ranked 25th in turnovers (14.9) and 27th in turnover percentage (13.4%), with those figures increasing exponentially (16.5%!!!) against the toughest defense in the Association.

Things to Know: The Suns were one of the least-profitable teams in the NBA this season, owning a 35-48-1 record ATS (42.3%), which equates to a net loss of 16.18 units (YIKES!!!). Phoenix is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. This is a team that has now failed to cover 9 consecutive playoff games as an underdog, though has been better in the postseason as a favorite, with a 4-4 mark ATS over 8 such outings. Prior to this series, the Suns had won and covered eight straight meetings, including all 3 of them during the 2023-2024 campaign. The Under has hit each of the last 4 times that Vogel & Co have been at home against an opponent with a road win percentage of .600 or better. Phoenix is struggling against the Association's top defense, scoring 94.0 points on 44.4% shooting and 34.0% from beyond the arc, with 17.5 assists in comparison to 17.0 turnovers, which all represent steep pitfalls from their season averages. The glass has been the biggest issue for this team, as they are -22 in rebounds thus far, including -13 on the defensive end, which means it has been one-and-done for them when in possession. (Veteran Guard) Grayson Allen, who led the NBA in three-point percentage (46.1%) is listed as day-to-day after tweaking his ankle in Game 2. As a franchise, they are 1-16 after losing the first 2 games of a series, with their lone series win coming in 1993 when the first round of the playoffs was best-of-five.

Playmaker to Watch: For a team built around the talents of a dynamic Big Three, not every member of said triumvirate is performing at a high level, which brings us to (All-Star Guard) Devin Booker. The longest tenured player on the team, Book averaged 27.1 points on 49.2% shooting and 36.4% from three, along with 4.5 rebounds, and 6.9 assists. However, the #1 defense in the NBA is clearly wearing on him, for in two games he has been held in check for 19.0 points on a disappointing 11-of-29 shooting (37.9%) and just 3-of-12 from downtown (25.0%), nearly as many turnovers (7) as he has assists (10). Critics of Phoenix have bemoaned their need for a Point Guard, or rather simply a facilitator of the offense. Well, out of the Big Three, this guy is the closest thing that Vogel has to such a player, and they'll need him to get everyone involved lest this series end a lot earlier than they would like.

Our Take: Suns 107, Timberwolves 102