NBA Playoffs: (2) Denver Nuggets @ (7) Los Angeles Lakers, Game 3

What would be a difficult matchup for just about any other team in the West is turning into business as usual for the Nuggets (57-25), who find themselves halfway towards a second consecutive sweep of the Lakers. After sweeping Los Angeles in the Western Conference Finals en route to claiming their first-ever NBA Title, Denver looks well on their way towards defending the Larry O'Brien Trophy; winners of 21 of their 26 games since returning from the All-Star Break, (HC) Mike Malone's troops have raised their level of the last two months, evidenced by how they've handled LA in rallying back to victory in Games One and Two in which they trailed by 15+ points in both contests. Of the two, Monday night's triumphant 101-99 walk-off thriller is an early contender for game of this postseason; trailing by a whopping 20 points in the third quarter, the hosts authored a furious comeback led by (3-time MVP Center) Nikola Jokic and (lethal sniper) Jamal Murray who combined for 21 of their team's 32 points in a fourth quarter in which Nuggets shot a ridiculous 13-of-20 from the field (65.0%). With the affair tied at 99-99 with 0:12 left in regulation, Murray sank an emphatic step-back fadeaway from the left corner over the outreaching arm of Anthony Davis, giving Denver a commanding 2-0 lead as the scene shifts to the City of Angels.

Things to Know: Failing to cover the spread in Game Two aside, the public doesn't appear to be fazed by that setback as 72% of all bets are riding on the Nuggets, which is predictable after such a finish. However, the sharp money is less convinced, as the percentage of money being wagered is far more level, with Denver owning a modest 54% share. Thus far, Malone & Co haven't been very rewarding ATS this season, posting a 39-43-2 record in that regard (47.6%), which equates to a differential of -20 games, most in the NBA. It speaks to how this team often controls the tempo that they have become so adept at winning games SU without covering. As such, the Nuggets have produced a profit margin in the red at -7.55 units. With that being said, they have been better at covering of late, owning a 16-12 record ATS since the return from the break. Denver have covered 4 consecutive playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 points. The Under has hit 5 straight times when they are a road favorite of 0.5-4.5 points. The Nuggets have been nothing short of sensational in the halves of the first two chapters of this series, with their execution and efficiency something to behold; Denver is +31 points on 51.6% shooting with 27 assists in comparison to committing just 2 turnovers in the second half of these games.

Playmaker to Watch: After Monday night's heroics, who else but Murray? The sharpshooting Guard's healthy return to form was one of the biggest components of the Nuggets' run to claim their first NBA Championship in franchise history, with playmaking and shot-making serving as the ideal complement to Jokic's dominance. During last Spring's sweep of the Lakers, Murray was sublime in torching the Purple & Gold for 32.5 points on insane shooting splits of 52.7%/40.5%/95.0%. While he hasn't been nearly as efficient through the first two games of this sequel, shooting 18-of-48 (37.5%) overall and 4-of-14 (28.5%) from three, he's averaged 21.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 1.5 blocks, including a barrage of late daggers in Monday night's rally to take a 2-0 series lead. Murray poured in 14 points in that fourth quarter on 6-of-8 shooting (75.0%), which could serve as a portent of things to come as the scene shifts to the City of Angels. If that is indeed the case, then this affair could be wrapped up over the weekend, folks...

Meanwhile, you have to feel for the Lakers (47-35), who have done virtually everything within their power to beat the Nuggets, though have nonetheless found themselves 2 games away from being swept for a second consecutive series. Through 2 games, Los Angeles has performed better than most expected, shooting an efficient 49.0% from the field, including 35.6% from beyond the arc, with the tandem of (4-time MVP) LeBron James and (All-NBA Forward) Anthony Davis averaging a combined 58.5 points, 19.5 rebounds, 13.5 assists, 2.0 steals, and 4.0 blocks. Furthermore, they have gotten off to outstanding starts which have led to leads as large as 15 and 20 points in Games One and Two; in the first halves of these affairs, (HC) Darvin Ham's troops have outscored the hosts by 18 points on a stellar 55.9% shooting, including 12-of-27 from downtown (44.4%), with 32 assists opposed to 14 turnovers. Unfortunately, the second halves have been a very different story for the Purple & Gold, who have seen their strong shooting dissipate to the tune of 41.0% overall and 28.1% from three, with nearly as many turnovers (12) as assists (14). To his credit, Ham has tried to downplay the situation, but the fact remains that he and his charges are on the brink of oblivion as they return to crypto.com Center, where we will see how much resiliency they really possess.

Things to Know: The Lakers have now lost 10 consecutive meetings with the Nuggets, currently their longest versus any single opponent. Los Angeles led by double-digits in both Games One and Two, with their 20-point lead in the latter being the second-largest blown advantage in franchise playoff history. LAL is 40-45 ATS thus far (47.1%), which is 8 games off their pace on the money line, equating to a profit margin also in the red at -8.64 units. Though they turned their season around at the beginning of February, Ham & Co have been a simply average bet, going 19-17 ATS since February 1st. The Lakers are 1-6 in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5 points, with the last three instances coming against the Nuggets. Los Angeles may have covered the spread in Game Two, but that should be cause for concern; this is a team that is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 contests following a cover. The Under is now 4-0 in LAL's last four first-round playoff games. The Lakers lived at the charity stripe this season, ranking second in free-throws made (18.9) and attempted (24.2), though struggled to get their much at all in Game Two, netting 10-of-13 attempts for a -5 margin on makes. If Los Angeles loses tonight, then this series will be all but over: No team in NBA history has ever successfully rallied back to win a best-of-seven series after falling behind 0-3, with only 3 teams even managing to force a Game Seven.

Playmaker to Watch: It would be easy to name either James or Davis here, but the name to keep an eye on remains (veteran Guard) D'Angelo Russell, who remains a polarizing figure within the fan base. Acquired at last year's Trade Deadline, the former and current Laker played a sizable role in helping push Los Angeles to the Western Conference Finals. However, his defensive liabilities in that matchup with Denver led to him being played off the court, eventually benched in the finale of the 4-game sweep. This season, Russell was subject to a myriad of trade rumors, though was ultimately retained at the deadline, which led to some of the most inspiring basketball of his career; since the beginning of February, the 28-year-old has averaged 19.4 points on 43.2% shooting, including 41.3% from three, along with 6.7 assists during a stretch in which the team went 23-8. After struggling in Game One with 13 points and 1-of-9 shooting from downtown, he bounced back with 23 points and 7-of-11 shooting on threes in Monday night's heartbreaking defeat.

Our Take: Lakers 109, Nuggets 105