NBA Playoffs: (8) New Orleans Pelicans @ (1) Oklahoma City Thunder

For the second time in three years, we find the Pelicans (49-33) being a proper pain in the @$$ for a number one seed and doing it without the services of their most significant playmaker to boot. In last week's first leg of the Play-In Tournament, New Orleans was dealt a crushing blow with the loss of (All-Star Forward) Zion Williamson to a strained left hamstring suffered at the conclusion of a game that he just scored 40 points in. Needless to say, this is a monumental letdown for a player who had just participated in a career-high 70 games after missing 135 games during the previous to campaigns combined. (HC) Willie Green stated that the former number one overall pick is officially listed as day-to-day, though in reality he isn't expected to return to the hardwood until early May. With that in mind, will these birds manage to hold out long enough for that to happen? Sunday's 92-94 loss at Oklahoma City proved that this is a team that is comfortable playing without their biggest star, as they gave the top-seeded Thunder everything they could handle. Defensively, their superior size, length, and physicality slowed down one of the most prolific attacks in the Association, limiting the hosts to 43.5% shooting, including 31.3% from three, and twenty-one assists, while thrashing them on the glass (more on that shortly). Unfortunately, the visitors struggled to put the ball through the nylon themselves, netting a disappointing 38.5% of their attempts from the field and 28.2% from downtown.

Things to Know: The public must have been impressed with what they saw from the Pelicans in Sunday's narrow defeat, for 72% of all bets and roughly 70% of the money are riding with these birds. New Orleans is one of the few teams int he Association to post an ATS record north of the watermark (45-39-1), which equates to a profit margin in the black (+1.91). After a disappointing 2-7 stretch ATS that dropped them into the Play-In, Green & Co have since covered 5 out of 8 contests. The Pels have covered 5 consecutive games as a road underdog, while the Under has hit 6 times in a row when they are an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. These birds hold a significant size advantage in this series, particularly on the glass where they outrebounded the Thunder 52-44, including 18-8 on the offensive end, which was the primary reason that they managed 11 more field goal attempts on the night. (Veteran Center) Jonas Valanciunas played a sizeable role in this, totaling 20 rebounds, 9 of the offensive variety, with his massive 6'11", 265-pound frame pushing bodies around like a proverbial dump truck.

Playmaker to Watch: With Zion likely sidelined for the entirety of this series, the Pelicans absolutely need (former All-Star Swingman) Brandon Ingram to round back into form and become a protagonist on the offensive end of the hardwood. During his five years in the Big Easy, the 26-year-old has developed into a well-rounded offensive weapon, though he still appears to be on working his way back from a knee injury that claimed twelve consecutive contests before returning for the season finale. Ingram was decisive in New Orleans' 105-98 triumph over Sacramento in Friday's second leg of the Play-In, totaling 24 points on 10-of-20 shooting (50.0%), 6 rebounds, and 6 assists. Unfortunately, the lithe wing was unable of carrying that form into Sunday's narrow loss at Oklahoma City, mustering just 12 points on 5-of-17 shooting (29.4%) in just over 37 minutes of action. Simply put, Green & Co will need a lot more out of him if they are to pull the upset...

Meanwhile, perhaps this is why all of the veteran teams in the Play-In were angling for a potential matchup with the Thunder (57-25), who in their first postseason affair (sans the Bubble) since 2019, very nearly fell into an early 0-1 hole. Experience is a CRUCIAL ingredient to playoff success, and apart from a few figures, this is a team that simply doesn't have much of it; Oklahoma City is the youngest team in this playoff field, with all but two players within (HC) Mark Daigneault's rotation aged 25 years or younger. However, few teams have experienced such exponential growth across their roster, as OKC improved by 17 games this season en route to securing the top seed out west. (All-Star Guard) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as an MVP finalist, while (2022 2nd Overall Pick) Chet Holmgren has become a valuable playmaker on both ends of the court after missing his entire rookie campaign due to injury, and not to mention (blossoming Forward) Jalen Williams, who appears on the verge of stardom. With that being said, these Thunder were tested in Game One, as they were forced to gut out a victory despite playing at much slower pace and struggling from the field. However, they compensated for their lack of size by forcing the Pelicans into 14 turnovers parlaying into 14 points, leading to a healthy 20-7 advantage in transition.

Things to Know: The Thunder are a healthy 47-36 ATS this season (56.6%), which equates to a bankable profit margin of +6.73. After a miserable stretch in which they managed to cover just 5 of 20 contests, Oklahoma City bounced back with 4 consecutive covers prior to Sunday's affair. Daigneault's troops have won 5 of their last 6 encounters with the Pelicans, 4 of which coming away from the friendly confines of Chesapeake Energy Arena. Each of their last 4 first-round outings have gone Under. OKC was the top three-point shooting team in the NAB this season (38.9%), though were held well below their standard in Game One (10-of-32) and were outscored in this regard (-3) as well. They were also tops in the league in steals (8.5) and blocks (6.6), which played a role in their victory as they turned New Orleans over 14 times. It was a bit of mixed bag for Holmgren in his first playoff experience, with the 7-footer giving away a lot of girth to Valanciunas; despite totaling eleven rebounds and 5 blocks, he ended up with 15 points on a mediocre 6-of-14 shooting (42.9%).

Playmaker to Watch: Who else but Shai? Now in his fifth season in Oklahoma City since arriving via trade back in 2019, Gilgeous-Alexander has evolved into one of the most prolific players in the NBA, finishing the regular season as one of three finalists for MVP honors. The 25-year-old averaged a robust 30.1 points on a career-high 53.5% shooting from the field, including 35.3% from downtown, along with 5.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 2.0 steals. With the Thunder such a young group, it will be up to SGA to lead them through the looming adversity as he did in Game One; while it wasn't most efficient shooting performance, Gilgeous-Alxander nonetheless fought through the Pelican's relentless defensive pressure to finish with twenty-eight points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists, along with 6 crucial free-throws. The Playoffs is where legends are made, with Shai beginning to build his portfolio.

Our Take: Thunder 112, Pelicans 102