NBA Playoffs: (6) Phoenix Suns @ (3) Minnesota Timberwolves

The playoffs are officially here, folks, as the sixth-seeded Phoenix Suns travel to Target Cetner to battle the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves. Coming into this series, the Suns (49-33) have the momentum in overcoming an inconsistent first half of the campaign brought on by injuries to their trio of stars, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal, who started literally HALF of their games this season (41). As you can imagine, (HC) Frank Vogel's troops have been pretty good when their stars have aligned, owning a 26-15 record when they're all healthy. Thankfully, that has been the case for the last 18 games, with the Suns coincidentally winning 12 of them, which they needed to escape the Play-In Tournament.

Things to Know: Phoenix is currently -120 to win this series. 94% of the money is the Suns in this opening contest. The Suns possessed one of the biggest disparities in the NBA between their SU (49-33) success and ATS (35-46-1), equating to a differential of 14 games. With that being said, they are 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games. Phoenix is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog and is 0-6 in their last six playoff games as a dog of 0.5-4.5 points. The Suns have won 9 of their last ten meetings with the Wolves and have been even better ATS, covering 9 in a row. Keep an eye on how often Phoenix gets to the charity stripe, for no team had a higher FT/FGA ratio (.219) shooting a free-throw just under every field goal attempts. Despite their stars, the Suns were statistically the WORST fourth quarter team in the NBA, posting a point differential of -195.

Playmaker to Watch: The triumvirate of KD, Book, and Beal grabs all the headlines in Phoenix, but the player to keep an eye on is coincidentally the biggest body on the roster, Jusuf Nurkic. The towering Bosnian is really the only true Center in Vogel's rotation and will have the responsibility of banging in the paint with not only Rudy Gobert, but Karl-Anthony Towns, who is back from injury. Nurk has performed admirably this year, averaging 10.9 points, 11.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks in 27.3 minutes per game, while being the only reason that this team isn't getting pummeled on the glass night in and night out. Again, this is a small team matching up against one of the biggest in the NBA, which makes his presence in the floor CRUCIAL for Phoenix's success.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves (56-26) had an opportunity to clinch the number one seed out West, but received the short end of the stick by falling to third. However, Minnesota posted their best record since the 2003-2004 campaign, thanks in large part to the continued growth of (All-Star Swingman) Anthony Edwards and the most fearsome defense in the NBA, anchored by (3-time Defensive Player of the Year) Rudy Gobert. The Wolves ranked first in points allowed (106.5), defensive rating (109.0), field goal percentage allowed (45.0%), and two-point percentage allowed (50.6%) thanks in large part to their considerable size and length both in the frontcourt and backcourt. With that being said, can (HC) Chris Finch's troops overcome their own mistakes? They finished the season ranked 22nd in turnovers (14.2) and 23rd in turnover percentage (13.0%).

Things to Know: Minnesota has advanced past the first round of the playoffs only ONCE in the history of their franchise; led by (Hall of Famer) Kevin Garnett, the Wolves went to the Western Conference Finals back in 2004. Since then, they have qualified for the postseason on three occasions, losing in the first round each time. The Timberwolves have also seen a sizable disparity between their SU success (56-26) and ATS (40-41-1), equating to a differential of 16 games. Minnesota is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games, including 4 straight losses ATS. The Wolves haven't covered the spread against the Suns in 9 tries, with their last cover coming in November of 2021, which they coincidentally lost. Finch & Co not only lost all three of their encounters this season, but trailed by 10+ points in the second half of each game. The Wolves have learned how to close games, sporting one of the best fourth quarter scoring margins in the NBA (+101), which ranked second only to the Celtics.

Playmaker to Watch: He may not be the headliner anymore, but Karl-Anthony Towns is the most important player for Minnesota in not just this game, but the series as a whole. The former number one overall pick is the self-proclaimed greatest shooting big man in NBA history, and he may have a point at a career 39.8% from downtown. However, he missed 18 consecutive games due to a knee injury that he just returned from a week ago, so there are concerns over his conditioning. Furthermore, in order to remain on the court, he'll need to be able to matchup with a smaller opponent, in all likelihood Grayson Allen or one of the less-imposing options that Phoenix fields on the perimeter. Minnesota has a tremendous size advantage in this matchup, but that only works if KAT can stay on the court.

Projected Outcome: Suns 110, Timberwolves 106