Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics

With the playoff picture still taking shape, a potential Finals preview takes centerstage tonight from TD Garden, as the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder cross paths with the Boston Celtics, who can clinch the number one overall seed in the postseason with just two more victories. A game of musical chairs is currently being played atop the Western Conference, where three teams have been vying for the top seed, separated within a half-game of each other, including the upstart Thunder (52-33, 3rd in Western Conference). Just two days ago, Oklahoma City sat in first place, only to tumble down to third with a loss in Philadelphia (more on that shortly), their third in defeat in six games. A year after improving by a whopping sixteen games (40-42), this young team has taken yet another leap under the direction of (Head Coach) Mike Daigneault, whose charges are twelve games better than last season, with seven to go no less. So, what has spurred such growth, you ask? Well, this is a franchise that has drafted very well over the last few years and as such, done a tremendous job of developing such talent. Many of the seeds that (General Manager) Sam Presti planted are blooming in unison, including (Rookie Center) Chet Holmgren and (versatile Forward) Jalen Williams, who have the goods to blossom into superstars in the not so near future. Then there is (veteran Point Guard) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate this season. The old man of the group at just 25-yeard-old, Gilgeous-Alexander (pictured below alongside Holmgren) has averaged 30.3 points per game on an efficient 53.9% shooting from the field, along with 5.5 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and a league-best 2.1 steals. Granted, with an average age of 24.1 years in the rotation, there is a common opinion that their youth and inexperience will be their downfall in the playoffs, though we would caution against that lazy view for this team has been a bastion of efficiency throughout the campaign; OKC rank second in field goal percentage (49.9%), fifth in two-point percentage (56.7%), first in three-point percentage (39.0%), third in free-throw percentage (82.5%), and sixth in turnover percentage (11.1%), all the while creating havoc on the defensive end with 8.3 steals (2nd Overall) and a league-high 6.6 blocks. Simply put, they play modern basketball, and they do so better than most. The Thunder have proven that they are more than capable of trading blows with a team the caliber of the Celtics, who they bested in a thrilling 127-123 affair back on January 2nd. Trailing 58-61 at halftime, Oklahoma City went on a stunning 40-25 run in the third quarter, in which the hosts shot a blistering 16-of-26 from the field (61.5%), including 6-of-9 from three (66.7%), with Gilgeous-Alexander and (young Guard) Josh Giddey outscoring the visitors by themselves in combining for twenty-seven points on 11-of-14 shooting (78.5%), with five rebounds, and seven assists. Boston would rally in the fourth (37-29), but it wasn’t enough as Daigneault’s troops sent a message that they have indeed arrived and are a legitimate contender. When it was all said and done, OKC shot 52.7% overall and 18-of-40 from downtown (45.0%), assisting on thirty-four of their forty-eight field goals, with just ten turnovers. SGA totaled thirty-six points, six rebounds, seven assists, and a steal, while four other players reached double-figures in points, including Giddey with twenty-three. The home side also did a tremendous job of contesting everything they could at the rim, racking up TEN blocks on the night, four of which were attributed to Holmgren.

When we last saw the Thunder, they dropped their third game in six outings, a 105-109 loss at the 76ers, who welcomed back the services of (reigning MVP) Joel Embiid following an absence of over two months. After a tightly contested opening stanza, Oklahoma City caught fire in the second quarter where they outscored the hosts 32-19, netting 12-of-25 attempts from the field (48.0%), assisting on each of those makes without a single turnover to be found. However, the visitors could not keep up such a fury, as Philadelphia woke up in the second half, particularly in the fourth period where they ended the night on a 36-25 run. Daigneault’s troops went cold during this stretch, shooting 7-of-19 from the field (36.8%) and 2-of-10 from three (20.0%), while coughing up the rock seven times. In the end, OKC handled themselves admirably without the services of both Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, as Holmgren picked up the slack with twenty-two points on 7-of-14 shooting (50.0%), including 3-of-6 from downtown (50.0%), seven boards, and a pair of blocks. From a betting perspective, the Thunder have been one of the better bets in the Association, particularly against the spread where they have thus posted a stellar 43-32 record. However, they have certainly cooled off on that front, covering just four of their last fifteen games, many of which coming away from the friendly confines of Paycom Center, which is once again the case tonight. On the injury front, there are two situations that merit monitoring, as both Gilgeous-Alexander (quadriceps) and Williams (ankle) are listed as questionable and will be game-time decisions after missing Tuesday’s trip to the City of Brotherly Love. Looking ahead, Oklahoma City currently sit a half-game ahead of the Nuggets and a full game in front of the Timberwolves for the top seed in the loaded Western Conference, with the likes of Boston, Indiana, and Charlotte closing out this 5-game road trip.

Meanwhile, the race for the top seed in the west may go down to the last day of the season, but the east has been sewn up for quite a while now, as the Celtics (59-16, 1st in Eastern Conference) own a commanding 11.5-game lead over their closest competition in the conference. This campaign is reaching historic levels for a franchise that wrote the book on said topic; with a win tonight, Boston will reach SIXTY wins for the FOURTEENTH time in their long, storied history, and the first time that they’ve done so since the 2008-2009 campaign. With seven games to go, they have a shot of matching the 66-win side of 2007-2008, which went on to secure their SEVENTEENTH and most recent NBA Title. Of course, after FIVE trips to the Eastern Conference Finals in the last seven years, the mission to hang banner no. eighteen, with this current group of shamrocks appearing to more equipped to do so than any of their predecessors. So, what has changed in Beantown, you ask? Well, the biggest difference between this unit and the one that preceded it is the additions of (veteran Center) Kristaps Porzingis and (veteran Guard) Jrue Holiday, who arrived in the offseason via separate trades that shook up the roster. (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla and (Chief Executive) Brad Stevens opted to alter the chemistry of their rotation dramatically over the summer, shipping out (2021-2022 Defensive Player of the Year) Marcus Smart, (young rim deterrent) Robert Williams, and (valuable backup Forward) Grant Williams in favor of the towering Latvian International and the 2021 NBA Champion, who have completely transformed the team on both ends of the hardwood. Beginning with Porzingis, the seven-footer brings a perimeter-shooting threat (36.4% 3FG) to a position that typically lacks it, opening up the paint for his teammates to attack, while bringing a shot-blocking element (1.8 blocks) to the opposite end of the court. As for Holiday, the five-time All-Defensive Team selection remains one of the league’s premier defenders at the point, capable of covering multiple positions, including larger opponents due to his strength and smarts. Furthermore, the 33-year-old is a much more efficient scorer than his predecessor, netting 47.8% of his field goal attempts and a dangerous 43.5% of his treys. Simply put, Porzingis and Holiday (pictured together below) have elevated an attack that had been prone to periodic droughts in the halfcourt, particularly in the playoffs. Boston ranks first (123.3) and third (111.7) in offensive and defensive rating (points per 100 possessions), parlaying to one of the highest net ratings in recent memory (+11.6). When Mazzulla & Co last met the Thunder, that aforementioned 123-127 affair back in early January, the Celtics had little trouble putting the ball through the nylon, as the tandem of Porzingis and (All-NBA Swingman) Jayson Tatum combined for sixty-four points, twenty-three rebounds, ten assists, and three blocks. However, they struggled mightily to slow Oklahoma City down, shipping over 50% shooting and getting outscored from three by a decisive twelve points. Needless to say, those were both rather rare occurrences for Boston, who have allowed that kind of shooting on thirteen occasions this season, while losing the battle on the perimeter nineteen times.

When we last saw the Celtics, they capped their recent road trip with a convincing 118-104 victory over the lowly Hornets, who reside at the opposite pole of the east standings. While this one was tightly contested in the first quarter, Boston pulled away between the second and third periods, outscoring Charlotte 65-47 during that stretch. When it was all said and done, the visitors shot a stellar 48.3% from the field, including 19-of-53 from beyond the arc (35.8%), where they owned a commanding +18 advantage. Tatum led the way with twenty-five points on 47.4% shooting, including 4-of-10 from downtown (40.0%) along with ten rebounds, four assists, and a pair of steals, while Porzingis finished with twenty points on an efficient 6-of-10 shooting (60.0%), seven boards and five assists. Furthermore, (veteran Forward) Derrick White filled the stat sheet with nineteen points, nine rebounds, five assists, and a block, while (backup Forward) Sam Hauser matched Tatum’s output with twenty-five points of his own, catching fire from three (7-of-11) in just over twenty-four minutes of action. From a betting perspective, the Celtics may own the best record in the Association, but they haven’t been nearly as rewarding against the spread, posting a 38-34-3 mark in that regard. Granted, much of that is due to the oddsmakers adjusting to make Boston HEAVY favorites on many occasions, with TWENTY-SEVEN games favored by 10+ points, which equates to 36.0% of their games thus far. On the injury front, the shamrocks have had the luxury of resting players at various points of the last few weeks, so pay attention to the dreaded load management when it comes time for Mazzulla to release his injury report. When we last checked, (All-Star Swingman) Jaylen Brown was the latest edition with a sore hand that caused him to miss Monday night’s trip to Charlotte. Looking ahead, the Celtics have already clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference and can simply play out the string, particularly with just one road game left on the docket as they play host to the likes of the Kings, Blazers, Knicks, Hornets, and Wizards, with a trip to Milwaukee thrown in there for good measure.

Projected Outcome: Celtics 114, Thunder 106