Sacramento Kings @ New York Knicks

A pair of teams looking to improve their playoff positioning before the conclusion of the regular season clash tonight in the Big Apple, as the Sacramento Kings continue their efforts to get out of the play-in tournament in this trip to Madison Square Garden where the New York Knicks are simply trying to snap a three-game losing streak. My, oh my, what a difference a year has made for the Kings (44-31, 7th in Western Conference), who twelve months after snapping the longest-running postseason drought in the Association, have thus found the encore much more difficult to perform. Last season, Sacramento was every bit the darling of the NBA, improving by EIGHTEEN games and qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2006. (Head Coach) Mike Brown earned unanimous Coach of the Year honors, while both (Point Guard) De’Aaron Fox and (Center) Domantas Sabonis were selected to their first All-NBA teams. Sure, they may have fallen to the veteran Warriors in an epic seven-game series in the opening round of the playoffs, but this franchise should be lauded for successfully navigating their way out of the proverbial wilderness. However, the second verse has proven to be far more difficult than the first, folks, for a year after earning the third seed out west, these monarchs find themselves jockeying for a way out of the play-in tourney, where nobody in the conference really wants to be. So, what has changed in Northern California, you ask? Well, Brown and (General Manager) Monte McNair stood pat in the offseason and at the trade deadline, preferring to build upon the continuity that they created last season. As a result, this current incarnation of the Kings remains very comparable to their predecessor; Fox and Sabonis (pictured below) are among the best at their respective positions, while the offense as a whole is among the league’s most prolific, though their prowess on the defensive end continues to leave much to be desired. Due in large part to Sabonis’ exploits, Sacramento is the top defensive rebounding team in the NBA, posting a 78.2% defensive rebounding percentage, while also forcing the tempo and creating more opportunities for themselves with a 12.3% turnover percentage, but they have maintained a disturbing penchant for fouling the opposition. Much to Brown’s dismay, his troops commit the sixth-most fouls in the Association (20.0), parlaying to a .215 free-throw/field goal attempt ratio (25th Overall), which has kept their opponents in games. The other factor here is that the Western Conference is simply better across the board than it was last year; Minnesota, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, and Dallas have all improved from a season ago, while the likes of Denver, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Golden State each possess the requisite firepower to make a deep playoff run. At forty-four wins, these Kings are just four games behind last year’s win total, though they are nonetheless further down the pecking order. This is where their inaction from a personnel perspective is haunting them, folks, as the likes of (sharpshooting Guards) Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk, along with (backup Forward) Trey Lyles have all missed time with various injuries, taxing their depth in the process.

When we last saw the Kings, they bested the Clippers in a 109-95 affair on Tuesday night, thanks in large part to a watershed third period in which they outscored the visitors 35-19. Leading 56-51 at halftime, Sacramento caught fire after intermission, netting 12-of-25 (48.0%) of their attempts from the field and 8-of-9 from the charity stripe (88.9%). The key here was their work on the offensive glass, securing EIGHT offensive boards, which along with six turnovers, led to six more field goal attempts for the hosts. Sabonis scored eleven of his twenty-two points in the period, finishing the night as one of five Kings to score in double-figures. Fox added twenty points, three, rebounds, and seven assists, while the supporting cast showed up in a big way in the form of Keegan Murray, Davion Mitchell, and the aforementioned Lyles combining for forty-eight points on 19-of-39 shooting (48.7%), including 9-of-22 from downtown (40.9%). On the flipside, this was easily one of the better defensive performances of the campaign for Brown’s outfit, who relegated Los Angeles to 40.8% shooting and a paltry eighteen assists in comparison to forcing fifteen turnovers, while utterly annihilating them on the glass (+18). From a betting perspective, the Kings haven’t been nearly as rewarding against the spread as they have been straight-up, posting a mediocre 38-37 mark in that former regard. The issue has been that no team in the Association has been worse when it comes to being a double-digit favorite than Sacramento, who own a disappointing 2-7 mark against the spread favored by 10+ points, including an NBA-worst THREE outright losses. Then again, that won’t be case tonight as they will be receiving points from the oddsmakers in this trip to Madison Square Garden where they are looking to avenge a 91-98 defeat from three weeks ago. In a grueling, defensive struggle, the hosts were completely taken out of their offensive rhythm, shooting just 35.3% from the field and 10-of-37 from three (27.0%), while losing the battle on the glass (-10) along the way. Fox and Sabonis combined for forty-one points, twenty-one rebounds, eleven assists, and three steals, though the former had a particularly rough night at the office on 5-of-19 shooting (26.3%), supplementing his production from the stripe (8-of-10 FT). On the injury front, both Huerter and Monk are out of action tonight, with the latter dealing with a sprained MCL that is expected to sideline from anywhere from four to six weeks. While that news is surely disappointing to the faithful in NoCal, the situation is more dire for Huerter, whose campaign is officially over after undergoing shoulder surgery. This duo is vital to the Kings’ playoff prospects, combining for 25.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game, along with 4.2 treys a night, with each shooting over 35.0% from the perimeter. Looking ahead, Sacramento will finish out this road trip at Boston, Brooklyn, and Oklahoma City, before concluding the regular season with three straight outings at Golden 1 Center against New Orleans, Phoenix, and Portland.

Meanwhile, it is a similar situation in the Big Apple, where the Knicks (44-31, 5th in Eastern Conference) are finding it difficult to follow up their own breakthrough campaign. This time last season, New York improved by TEN games, earning the fourth seed in the east, and unlike their opponent tonight, even managed to win their opening round series, a gentleman’s sweep of Cleveland. That triumph marked the first time in a decade that the Knickerbockers managed to get out of the first round, which had many pointing to bigger things for the storied franchise come 2023-2024. (Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau and (Lead Executive) Leon Rose had assembled a solid roster from top to bottom and struck gold on the free agent acquisition of (All-Star Guard) Jalen Brunson, who improved by leaps and bounds in a much more expanded role. With that being said, the difference between this group being good and great was their perceived lack of a star talent, with many predicting them to land one given their wealth of assets. The Trade Deadline came and went without such a profile arriving in Gotham, though they did net the services of (veteran Forward) O.G. Anunoby, one of the more coveted wings in the Association for relative pennies on the dollar (R.J. Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, a 2024 second round pick, and trade exception). Widely expected to have entered free agency if he had not been moved at the deadline, Anunoby was viewed as the ideal addition for Thibodeau’s system; the 26-year-old stands 6’7″ with the length and physicality to guard multiple positions, while becoming a much more effective three-point shooter over the past few years to boot. However, despite appearing to fit right into the rotation, an ailing elbow has kept him out of action since the middle of March. All this has done is put a further strain on Brunson (pictured below) to carry the offense, which he has done alongside two of his collegiate sidekicks, Donte DiVincenzo and Josh Hart. All three were members of Villanova’s 2016 National Championship team, bringing that toughness and smarts with them to Madison Square Garden. Brunson earned the first All-Star nod of his career back in February, averaging a career-high 27.8 points on 47.5% shooting, including 39.7% from three, along with 3.6 rebounds and 6.6 assists. As for DiVincenzo and Hart, the former has been on absolute tear over the last six games, posting 25.5 points per contest on 47.7% shooting, 40.9% from the perimeter, 4.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 2.3 steals, while the latter continues to log HEAVY minutes (41.3 since March 12th) en route to filling up the stat with 9.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 6.6 assists, and 1.2 steals.

When we last saw the Knicks, they slumped to their third consecutive defeat in the form a 99-109 affair with the Heat, which featured all the signs of a team that may be running out of gas. This one was over early, folks, as New York was outscored 34-22 in the first quarter, where they managed to shoot just 7-of-19 from the field (36.8%), including 3-of-11 from beyond the arc (27.3%). In turn, Miami started off on fire, netting a blistering 9-of-17 overall (52.9%), with all but two of their field goals coming from downtown (7-of-13 3FG), while netting 9-of-10 free-throws along the way. That would be enough for the hosts, who managed to protect their lead the rest of the way, as the visitors never did find their rhythm. Brunson may have finished with twenty points on a dismal 5-of-18 shooting (27.8%), but the same could not be said of his collegiate teammate, DiVincenzo, who continued his run of good form, with thirty-one points on 11-of-21 shooting (52.4%), including 6-of-15 from three (40.0%). From a betting perspective, the Knicks have been nearly as good against the spread as they have been on the money line, posting a solid 41-33-1 record in that former regard. It seems that the pendulum is swinging away from them at the moment though, for after putting together an 8-3-1 run though the month of March, they have failed to cover two of their last three outings, which have coincidentally been outright losses. Of course, New York covered that aforementioned encounter with Sacramento as 3.5-point underdog, in what was nothing short of a throwback to the 90s. It isn’t often that you find a game in which both teams fail to reach 100 points, but that was the case in this affair at Golden 1 Center, as Thibodeau’s troops shot 43.0% from the field in comparison to a miserable 35.3% for the hosts, relegating them to one shot on most possessions, with as many defensive rebounds (42) as their opponent had altogether. While this contest may have been a slog to watch, it was also a joy to watch Brunson, who erupted for FORTY-TWO points (27 of which coming between the second and third quarters) on 17-of-28 shooting (60.7%), including 5-of-10 from three (50.0%), four rebounds, two assists, and four steals. On the injury front, the Knicks will continue to be without the services of (veteran Forward) Julius Randle (shoulder) and the aforementioned Anunoby (elbow). Of the two, Randle is closer to returning after missing the last TWENTY-NINE games with a nagging shoulder malady, while a setback in his rehab is keeping Anunoby, whom the franchise added with aplomb at the trade deadline, from returning to action. If this team is to truly make some noise in the playoffs, Randle and Anunoby will need to back in the rotation if only for the simple fact that those two players have yet to even play together, leaving Thibodeau to figure out just how they may or may not complement each other. Looking ahead, New York will spend the next four games on the road with two trips to Chicago bookending a crucial venture to Milwaukee, before closing out the trip with a date in Boston.

Projected Outcome: Kings 108, Knicks 104