NCAA Final Four: (11) NC State vs (1) Purdue

The first of today’s two National Semifinals tips off with a battle between David and Goliath, as the eleventh-seeded North Carolina State Wolfpack battle the top-seeded Purdue Boilermakers with a trip to Monday’s National Championship Game on the line in this Final Four affair from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. For those of you looking for an underdog at this stage of the big dance, then look no further than North Carolina State (26-14. 9-11 in ACC), who roughly a month ago appeared as if they wouldn’t even be participating in this Spring’s NCAA Tournament. Back on March 9th, the Wolfpack had capped the regular season with their TENTH loss in fourteen games, including their final four outings of the schedule, leaving them reeling at 17-14 and on the outside looking in. Simply put, (Head Coach) Kevin Keatts’ troops had only one avenue in order to punch their tickets to the dance: win the ACC Tournament. Thankfully, that is exactly what they did, running the gauntlet and winning five games in as many days to win their eighteenth conference tourney in school history. Needless to say, this was quite a feat, as NC State knocked off both (No. 11) Duke (74-69) and (No. 4) North Carolina (84-76) along the way, and haven’t appeared to fall victim to fatigue just yet, carrying that momentum with them into the NCAA Tournament, where they have ousted (6 seed) Texas Tech (80-67), (14 seed) Oakland in an overtime thriller (79-73), (2 seed) Marquette (67-58), and most recently the (4 seed) Blue Devils for a second time (more on that affair in a bit). So, what has gotten into these dogs, you ask? Well, since the conclusion of the regular season, they have really found gotten after the opposition on the defensive end of the hardwood, shipping just 69.1 points per game on 40.0% shooting, including a scant 28.4% from beyond the arc, including 13.8 assists in comparison to 10.1 turnovers, while besting them on the glass for a +2.7 advantage in rebounds. (Seniors) D.J. Horne and D.J. Burns have emerged as stars during this stretch, with the former averaging 17.1 points on 43.8% shooting, 4.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.0 steal, while the latter has posted 16.6 points on an efficient 64.9% shooting, 4.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists. Of the two, Burns (pictured below) has been the most decisive, with 6’9″, 260-pound frame wreaking havoc in the paint. It will be interesting to see how he matches up with Purdue’s Zach Edey (much more on him shortly), who dwarfs the big fella from Rock Hill, South Carolina by about seven inches. The key to victory will be Burns staying out of foul trouble, which he has managed to do throughout this run of success, so that he can use his wide body to get into that of Edey, and perhaps give the reigning National Player of the Year a taste of his own medicine.

When we last saw North Carolina State, they continued their improbable run through the month of March with a comprehensive 76-64 beating of their ACC rivals, Duke, their second such victory over them in three weeks. Despite trailing 21-27 at halftime, the Wolfpack absolutely dominated the second period, outscoring the Blue Devils 55-37 the rest of the way. As has been the case during this miraculous win streak, the key for Keatts’ troops was their defensive pressure, which held the Devils to a mere 32.2% shooting from the field, including 14-of-39 from within the arc (35.9%) and 5-of-20 beyond it (25.0%), with just eleven assists in comparison to nine turnovers. If not for netting 21-of-26 free-throws, then this game would have been a lot uglier for the faithful down in Durham. With that being said, we’d be remiss if we didn’t give credit to the two DJs, Burns and Horne, who were nothing short of spectacular in this South Regional Final. The former was a proverbial wrecking ball in the paint, with TWENTY-NINE points on 13-of-19 shooting (68.4%), four rebounds, three assists, and a pair of blocks, while the latter added twenty points, four boards, and three assists. From a betting perspective, North Carolina State are 20-19-1 against the spread thus far, thanks in large part to this miraculous run that they’ve been on, with SEVEN covers in their last eight games overall. Each of those covers have come when receiving points from the oddsmakers, leading to seven outright victories during that span (four at +7 or more points), which is nothing short of remarkable. Furthermore, the Wolfpack have covered seven consecutive outings as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points, which is the case tonight. On the injury front, the only questionable is (Freshman Guard) Dennis Parker, who has yet to participate in the big dance due to an illness. Looking ahead, if NC State manage to pull yet another upset, which would undoubtedly be the upset of the tournament, then they will be advance to the third National Championship Game in program history. The school is 2-0 in Men’s National Finals, with the most recent being the famed 1983 championship side led by (Hall of Fame Head Coach) Jim Valvano, which served as one of the most improbable runs in NCAA Tournament history.

Meanwhile, we’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: this journey for Purdue (33-4, 17-3 in Big Ten) has been all about redemption. Last season, the top-seeded Boilermakers inexplicably became just the second one seed to ever be eliminated in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, suffering a horrific 58-63 defeat at the hands of Fairleigh-Dickinson. Over a year later, it has become clear that (Head Coach) Matt Painter’s troops have used that disappointment as a launching point for this current run of form, which has placed them two wins away from cutting down the nets and earning their first National Championship in the history of their program. At the center of it all is (Senior Center) Zach Edey, the towering 7’4″ giant from Toronto, who returned to West Lafayette with intentions of reaching that elusive goal. Simply put, there have been few players in the history of the sport that have made the kind of impact that he has, with so many teams completely unable to combat his ridiculous size and length around the rim. A throwback to another era of hoops, Edey (pictured below) has averaged 25.0 points on 62.4% shooting from the field, along with 12.2 rebounds (4.7 of the offensive variety), 2.0 assists, and 2.2 blocks per game, though his biggest impact has proven to come from the charity stripe. No player in the nation has attempted (424) or made (301) more free-throws than the big fella, with Purdue attempting an average of 10.7 more than their opponents this season, leading to a +7.6 advantage. In the NCAA Tournament alone, they have attempted FORTY-FOUR more free-throws than the opposition, outscoring them by THIRTY points in that regard, with Edey accounting for 61.3% of their attempts and 60.0% of their singles. However, it goes much deeper than that, folks, for as if often the case with big men of this nature, their true value lies not only in their ability to simply get to the stripe, but more so in getting the other team in the bonus far earlier than they would under normal circumstances. Basically, the Boilermakers find themselves shooting free-throws for roughly half of any given game, which allows Edey’s supporting cast to play a freedom that they otherwise wouldn’t employ. The likes of Braden Smith, Lance Jones, Fletcher Loyer, and Mason Gillis are all excellent free-throw shooters, netting no worse than 73.9%, while also providing solid options from the perimeter, where their three-point prowess ensuring that opposing defenses cannot simply clog the paint around their teammate. As a team, Purdue is downright LETHAL from downtown, netting 40.6% of their three-pointers, the second-highest percentage in the nation, with Smith, Loyer, and Gillis all knocking down at least 43.0% of their looks.

When we last saw Purdue, they marched into their third Final Four in school history on the back of a 72-66 victory over (2 seed) Tennessee, thanks in large part to the exploits of their mammoth Center. As we have seen so often over the last few seasons, as Edey goes, so do the Boilermakers, which was this case in this Midwest Regional Final, where the big fella downed the Volunteers with FORTY points on 13-of-21 shooting (61.9%), along with 14-of-22 shooting from the charity stripe (63.6%). To put that into perspective, folks, Edey made more free-throws than his opponent attempted as a whole. Simply put, we have yet to see any team in this tournament offer a solution to defending this kid. Defensively, the Big Ten Champions relegated their opposition from the SEC to a miserable 38.7% shooting overall, including 13-of-36 from within the arc (36.1%), though the Vols did manage to keep things close from deep in knocking down 11-of-26 threes (42.3%), leading to a 24-point advantage to compensate for their shortcomings in the paint and at the stripe. From a betting perspective, Purdue hasn’t been quite as rewarding against the spread as they have been on the money line, though they’re remain in the black all the same with a 2015-2 record in that former regard. After failing to cover the spread in seven out of nine games coming into the big dance, the Boilermakers have since beaten the spread in each round thus far, whether it was as a 27-point favorite against Grambling State (78-50) or as 3.5-point favorite in that aforementioned victory over Tennessee. With that being said, as a number one seed facing an eleven, Painter’s troops are back to being heavy favorites, which is notable for the fact that they are 1-5 in their last six contests as favorite of 7.0-12.5 points, which is the case tonight. Looking ahead, Purdue are one win away from participating in just their second National Final in program history, potentially marking their first since 1969 where they were crushed by John Wooden’s legendary UCLA team led by the legendary Lew Alcindor aka Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

Projected Outcome: Purdue 84, NC State 70