NCAA Final Four: (4) Alabama vs (1) UConn

The second of today’s two National Semifinals could very well be a shootout, folks, as the fourth-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide look to make their first trip to the Final Four a fruitful one in opposition of the top-seeded UConn Huskies, who are in turn looking to become the first repeat National Champion since 2007. For the first time in the history of their program, Alabama (25-11, 13-5 in SEC) have advanced to a Final Four, though many would agree that they have done so a year late. By all accounts, the Crimson Tide were a more formidable side last season, when they won thirty games for the first time in school history and were thus seeded atop the South Region. Unfortunately, (Head Coach) Nate Oats’ troops fell victim to fifth-seeded San Diego State (who went on to lose to UConn in the National Final) in the Sweet Sixteen, which led to an exodus of talent. The 49-year-old was forced to supplement his losses with the aid of the Transfer Portal, adding three seniors from other programs, which combined with the talent that remained in Tuscaloosa ensured that the Tide would continue to roll in 2023-2024. Despite struggling down the stretch with three losses in their final five regular season games and going one-and-done in the SEC Tournament, ‘Bama has course-corrected in the big dance, thriving in a more controlled, efficient take on their typically high-powered approach. On the season, no team scored more points than Alabama (90.6), while few were as poor on the defensive end, shipping a disappointing 81.1 (356th Overall), which is primarily due to the pace they play at. Basically, they put up a lot of shots, but so do their opponents, which has resulted in many a shootout for the Crimson Tide. However, over their last four contests, they have been much better on the defensive end of the hardwood, yielding just 40.2% shooting from the field, including a mere 28.8% from beyond the arc, where they have in turn caught fire on 41.4% shooting, leading to a healthy 12.0-point advantage in that department. Furthermore, they have refrained from committing the plethora of fouls that they had throughout the campaign, with the likes of (1 seed) North Carolina and (6 seed) Clemson making twenty-three free-throws combined, which was as many as Grand Canyon netted against them in the second round alone. Oh, and it has certainly helped that the seniors have come to play, with (Senior Point Guard) Mark Sears leading the way. The former Ohio Transfer has averaged 21.5 points on 50.4% shooting, including 43.4% from downtown, along with 4.1 rebounds and assists apiece, and 1.7 steals per game. During the NCAA Tournament, Sears (pictured below) has logged 24.3 points on 50.8% shooting, while generally catching fire from the perimeter on 17-of-38 shooting (44.7%). He and his teammates will be looking for revenge on Connecticut, who bested them in an 82-67 affair early last season, in which Sears could muster just eight points on 3-of-8 shooting (37.5%) and were largely done in by their own mistakes (19 turnovers).

When we last saw Alabama, they rolled into their first ever Final Four on the strength of an 89-82 victory over (6 seed) Clemson, who were fresh off upsetting the top seed in the West Region, North Carolina. For the second game in a row, the Crimson Tide refrained from bailing out their opponent with needless fouls, while catching from fire from beyond the arc. Oats’ outfit relinquished just sixteen free-throw attempts to the Tigers, who could muster a disappointing eight makes, while struggling to find their rhythm from downtown where they netted 8-of-26 threes (30.8%). The Tide however, had no such problems in either department, calmly knocking down 15-of-22 free-throws (68.2%) along with 16-of-36 treys (44.4%), which together equated to a 31-point advantage for the SEC residents. Sears led the way with twenty-three points, with all but two coming from deep (7-of-14 3FG), while (Freshman Forward) Jarin Stevenson had the game of his life off the bench with nineteen points and five three-pointers on eight attempts (62.5%). From a betting perspective, Alabama has been almost as rewarding against the spread as they have been on the money line, posting a 21-15 record in that former regard, thanks in large part to four consecutive covers in this NCAA Tournament. Of course, that comes off the heels of a disappointing stretch in which they had beaten the spread only once in six tries, which coincidentally all came in conference play. With that being said, much of their success against the spread of late has come as a favorite, in which the Crimson Tide have earned eleven of their last twelve covers. However, that is NOT the case in this matchup with the reigning champions, which will see Oats’ troops receiving points from the oddsmakers for just the tenth time this season, with that 11.5-point spread being by far and away the largest that they have faced thus far. Needless to say, this doesn’t bode well for the Tide, who are 1-4 in their last five games versus the spread as an underdog. On the injury front, keep on the status of the aforementioned Wrightsell, who missed both the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight due to concussion-like symptoms suffered in his team’s 72-61 win over Grand Canyon University. The senior has been an ideal complement alongside Sears throughout the campaign, averaging 9.0 points on 44.7% shooting, including 44.3% from beyond the arc, along with 3.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.1 steals in 23.4 minutes of action per game. Looking ahead, if ‘Bama manage to hand UConn their first NCAA Tournament defeat since 2022, then they will be participating in their first National Final in program history, which is no small feat for a school that has been dominated by the success of their historic football program.

Meanwhile, it has been nearly two decades since we have seen a back-to-back National Champion, but UConn (35-3, 18-2 in Big East) are just two wins from making that a reality. Simply put, there hasn’t been a more dominating team in the country this season than the Huskies, who spent SEVEN of their final ten weeks of the campaign sitting atop the rankings, entering this NCAA Tournament as the overall top seed. Even after losing three players to the NBA, (Head Coach) Dan Hurley has arguably a better group today than the one that earned the program it’s FIFTH National Championship since 1999, with many members of last year’s supporting cast flourishing in expanded roles. (Seniors) Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer have risen to become the new leaders of this pack of dogs, while the likes of (Sophomores) Alex Karaban and Donovan Clingan have become pillars within Hurley’s starting lineup. One look at this group and the quickest takeaway is their size, both in the frontcourt and backcourt, where their length and physicality has made them arguably the toughest defensive side in the nation. Thus far, Connecticut has allowed just 63.3 points per game (9th Overall) on 39.0% shooting from the field (6th Overall), including 43.0% from within the arc (4th Overall) and 30.9% beyond it (30th Overall), all the while outrebounding the opposition by a margin of 8.8 boards, and blocking 5.4 shots (11th Overall). This excellence has carried over into this big dance, where they’ve relegated opponents to a mere 53.5 points on 32.2% shooting, including 22.5% from downtown, with a +13.3 advantage on the glass to boot. Simply put, nobody that they have faced of late has proven capable of cracking their defense, which is only half of the equation, for this is also a very good offensive team too. UConn has averaged 81.3 points over the last four contests, shooting an efficient 51.0% overall despite netting just 28.1% from the perimeter, thanks in large part to superior ball movement at a healthy 20.0 assists in comparison to 7.5 turnovers. This is where the experience of Newton (pictured below) and Spencer comes into play, with the veteran Guards making sure that the machine continues to run smoothly. Together, they have combined for 29.4 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 9.8 assists this season, while in the tourney they have upped the ante, as the Huskies have become the first team in NCAA Tournament history to hold a 30-point lead in each of their first four games. Hell, dating back to last year’s championship run, they won ten games in a row by no fewer than fifteen points. Speaking of last year, that aforementioned encounter with Alabama should provide some insight as to how tonight’s affair will play out; the 82-67 victory saw hurley & Co overcome a poor shooting effort (43.3%) by exploiting the Crimson Tide’s mistakes, manufacturing NINETEEN turnovers into twenty-three points, parlaying to a commanding +12 advantage in that regard.

When we last saw UConn, they cruised to their second straight Final Four with a 77-52 thrashing of (3 seed) Illinois in last weekend’s East Regional Final. Believe it or not, this one was reasonably competitive in the first half, with the Huskies heading into intermission with a 28-23 lead. However, the second half was a very different story altogether, as Big East residents outscored their counterpart from the Big Ten 49-29. When it was all said and done, Connecticut shot a blistering 51.7% from the field, while holding the Illini to a scant 25.4% shooting overall, despite being outscored from beyond the arc (-9). Where these dogs did their damage was within the arc, netting a commanding 28-of-43 attempts (65.1%) in comparison to a mere 11-of-44 (25.0%) from their opponent, parlaying to a ridiculous 34-point advantage. Clingan played a huge role in the outcome of this one, folks, with the towering seven-footer leading the way with twenty-two points on 9-of-13 shooting (69.2%), ten rebounds, three assists, and FIVE blocks. As a team, they had a whopping ten rejections on the night, matching a season-high established back int eh season opener. From a betting perspective, UConn have been one of the better teams in the country against the spread, posting a stellar 25-12-1 record in that regard, which parlays to a win percentage of .671. What makes this so remarkable is the fact that they have been heavy favorites so often this season, yet continue to handle their business and make the betting community a profit. The Huskies have been a double-digit favorite on TWENTY occasions thus far, resulting in a 14-7 ledger. However, the most impressive thing about these dogs has been their success in that regard with the NCAA Tournament; dating back to last year’s championship run, Hurley’s troops have covered TEN consecutive tourney affairs, which has already made a bit of history. Furthermore, Connecticut has covered SIX straight games within the big dance when favored by 7.0-12.5 points, which is once again the case tonight. Looking ahead, if you UConn eliminate Alabama, then they will be off to their SIXTH National Final, where they have never met defeat, and will thus be one step away from becoming the first school to win back-to-back men’s national titles in seventeen years.

Projected Outcome: UConn 86, Alabama 78