NCAA National Championship: (1) Purdue vs (1) UConn

It began roughly three weeks ago with sixty-eight teams and now it has come down to just two in this clash of literal titans, as the Purdue Boilermakers are a game away from redemption and subsequently their first National Title in school history, while the UConn Huskies are on the cusp of establishing a dynasty with the sport’s first back-to-back National Championships since 2007. For Purdue (34-4, 17-3 in Big Ten), this journey to Glendale has been about one thing only: redemption. Of course, last season ended in heartbreakingly embarrassing fashion for the Boilermakers, who after winning both the Big Ten Regular Season and Conference Tournament titles, became just the SECOND team in NCAA Tournament history to lose in the first round as a number one seed, falling victim to Fairleigh Dickinson in a stunning 58-63 affair. Needless to say, a loss like that leaves one helluva scar on everyone involved, though as we’ve seen in the past, it is possible to use that humbling experience as motivation to right the gravest of wrongs. In fact, look no further than the 2019 Virginia Cavaliers, who were the first team to own that dubious distinction, only to turn around and cut down the nets a year later in redemptive extasy. And that is precisely what (Head Coach) Matt Painter & Co are trying to do, having repeated as Big Ten Champions and running through the competition in this big dance with relative ease. At the center of it all (pun intended) is (Senior Center) Zach Edey, the towering 7’4″ giant who returned to West Lafayette with intentions of reaching that elusive goal. Simply put, there have been few players in the history of the sport that have made the kind of impact that he has, with so many teams completely unable to combat his ridiculous size and length around the rim. A throwback to another era of hoops, Edey (pictured below) has averaged 24.9 points on 62.5% shooting from the field, along with 12.2 rebounds (4.7 of the offensive variety), 2.1 assists, and 2.2 blocks per game, though his biggest impact has proven to come from the charity stripe. No player in the nation has attempted (426) or made (303) more free-throws than the big fella, with Purdue attempting an average of 10.5 more than their opponents this season, leading to a +7.6 advantage. In the NCAA Tournament alone, they have attempted FIFTY more free-throws than the opposition, outscoring them by THIRTY-FOUR points in that regard, with Edey accounting for 61.3% of their attempts and 60.0% of their makes. However, it goes much deeper than that, folks, for as is often the case with big men of this nature, their true value lies not only in their ability to simply get to the stripe, but more so in getting the other team in the bonus far earlier than they would ever prefer. Basically, the Boilermakers find themselves shooting free-throws for roughly half of any given game, which allows Edey’s supporting cast to play with a freedom that they otherwise wouldn’t employ under different circumstances. The likes of Braden Smith, Lance Jones, Fletcher Loyer, and Mason Gillis are all excellent free-throw shooters, netting no worse than 73.9%, while also providing solid options from the perimeter, with their three-point prowess ensuring that opposing defenses cannot simply clog the paint around their teammate. As a team, Purdue is absolutely LETHAL from downtown, netting 40.6% of their three-pointers, the second-highest percentage in the nation, with Smith, Loyer, and Gillis all knocking down at least 43.0% of their looks.

When we last saw Purdue, they advanced to their second National Final in school history on the strength of a 63-50 victory over (6 seed) NC State in Saturday’s Final Four. In one of the rare events in which the Boilermakers did not enjoy a sizeable advantage at the stripe (9-of-10 FT), the denizens of the Big Ten earned their money from beyond the arc. We covered how dangerous this group can be from the perimeter, with the Wolfpack finding that out firsthand as they were made to pay for giving so much attention to the aforementioned Edey. Make no mistake, the big fella got his, with twenty points, twelve rebounds, four assists, and a pair of blocks, but his teammates made it rain from downtown, netting 10-of-25 treys (40.0%) in comparison to a mere 5-of-19 (26.3%) for their opponent, parlaying to a 15-point advantage. Jones and Loyer were particularly hot, combining for twenty-five points with all but four of that total coming from three (7-of-14 3FG). It should be noted that both teams were showing the effects of fatigue that is native to this competition; the combatants both shot 40.0% or worse from the field, with a cumulative TWENTY-SEVEN turnovers (sixteen from Purdue), along with a whopping TWO fast break points, which is indicative of tired legs. From a betting perspective, Purdue has been almost as rewarding against the spread as they have been on the money line, posting a stellar 21-15-2 (57.9%) record in that former regard. That mark has been heavily influenced by their performance through this big dance, where they have won and covered each of their five contests, winning all but one of them by double-digits. However, the Boilermakers were favored each time, which is NOT the case tonight, where they find themselves receiving points from the oddsmakers for only the THIRD time all season. Painter’s troops are unbeaten both straight-up and against the spread in those two affairs, the first being a 92-84 victory over Arizona (+1.5) and the other a 77-71 triumph at Illinois (+2.5). Dating back to last year, this is a group that is both 5-2 SU and ATS in such contests, though the 6.5 points that they are receiving tonight is the most they’ve garnered since facing Gonzaga back in November of 2022, when they blasted the Bulldogs in an 84-66 drubbing. With a win tonight, Purdue will hoist their first National Championship in school history in this, only their second ever appearance in the National Final. The last time that they were here was back in 1969 where they were crushed by John Wooden’s legendary UCLA team led by the great Lew Alcindor aka Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

Meanwhile, everyone loves dynasties in sports, but they have been admittedly hard to come by in the realm of men’s college basketball, with UConn (36-3, 18-2 in Big East) looking to buck that notion. Over the last thirty-five years, we have seen just TWO repeat National Champions, with the first being Duke in 1992 and the second and most recent being Florida in 2007, as these Huskies are only the fourth team since 1991 to even be in a position to do so. With that being said, they have more than earned their standing, as they have been the most dominant team in the country for months now, sitting atop the rankings for SEVEN of the final ten weeks of the campaign before entering the big dance as the number one overall seed. It may be hard to fathom, but (Head Coach) Dan Hurley has an even better team on his hands than he did a year ago, even after losing three starters to the NBA. Many members of last season’s group have flourished within expanded roles, including the likes of (Senior Guard) Tristen Newton along with (Sophomores) Alex Karaban and the towering Donovan Clingan, while the new faces such as (Senior Transfer) Cam Spencer and (Freshman sensation) Stephon Castle have hit the ground running. One look at this group and the first takeaway is their size, both in the frontcourt and backcourt, where their length and physicality has made them arguably the toughest defensive side in the nation. Thus far, these dogs have allowed just 63.5 points per game (10th Overall) on 39.1% shooting from the field (7th Overall), including 43.0% from within the arc (4th Overall) and 31.4% beyond it (46th Overall), all the while outrebounding the opposition by a margin of 8.7 boards, and blocking 5.5 shots (10th Overall). This excellence has carried over into the big dance, where they’ve relegated opponents to a mere 57.2 points on 34.7% shooting, including 28.2% from downtown, with a +12.0 advantage on the glass to boot. Simply put, nobody that they have faced of late has proven capable of cracking their defense, which is only half of the equation, for this is also a very good offensive team too. UConn has averaged 82.2 points over the last five outings, shooting an efficient 50.8% overall despite netting just 30.7% from the perimeter, thanks in large part to superior ball movement at a healthy 20.0 assists in comparison to 6.8 turnovers. Keep an eye on Clingan tonight, as he will be charged with the unenviable task of defending the aforementioned Edey. The big fella may not be as big as his counterpart, but he is damn close; the Bristol native stands 7’2″ and 265 pounds, with understated athleticism that has him rising up NBA Draft boards. Clingan (pictured below) has improved greatly now that he has moved into the starting lineup, averaging 13.1 points on 64.0% shooting, 7.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 2.5 blocks, and most importantly, just 2.0 personal fouls which will be crucial in this clash with Edey. Tonight’s contest will see one of the few times in Edey’s career in which an opponent has the goods to defend him one-on-one, while also potentially placing him in position where he could fall into foul trouble. As long as Clingan holds his own in the paint, then Newton, Spencer, and Castle, can press up on Purdue’s litany of shooters, which was the gameplan during their second-half surge in Saturday night’s triumph over Alabama…

When we last saw UConn, they advanced to their second consecutive National Final on the strength of an 86-72 triumph of (4 seed) Alabama. Believe it or not, this was the first time in this tournament in which the Huskies were made to sweat, leading by just four points at halftime after owning a 30-point advantage in each of their four previous outings. Indeed, the Crimson Tide were doing a stellar job of taking care of the basketball and making the reigning champs pay from beyond the arc, leading by as many as five at one point. However, the second half was a very different story, as Connecticut edged the SEC residents 42-32, shutting their opponent down from the perimeter and finding their rhythm on the offensive end of the hardwood. As a team, Hurley’s troops shot a healthy 50.0% from the field, including 21-of-37 from within the arc (56.8%) and 10-of-25 from beyond it (40.0%), while dishing out twenty assists in comparison to committing a scant four turnovers. Furthermore, they outrebounded them 35-28 and dominated them in the paint (38-26), ending the night on a commanding 30-16 run. All five starters scored in double-figures, led by Clingan and Castle, with the former logging eighteen points, five rebounds, and four blocks, while the latter erupted for twenty-one points on 7-of-13 shooting (53.8%), five boards, two assists, and a steal, posting the third-most points ever in a National Final or Semifinal by a freshman. From a betting perspective, if you bet on UConn this year, you were probably a happy customer, seeing as how they have won 92.3% of their games straight-up, while covering 68.0% of them (26-12-1) along the way. That latter mark has been heavily bolstered by their current run of form, which has been nothing short of sublime, covering FOURTEEN of their last sixteen contests, including each of their last six outings, five of which coming in this NCAA Tournament. In fact, the Huskies come into this National Final having covered ELEVEN consecutive games in the tourney, with every one of them being decided by no less than fourteen points. With the spread opening at 7.5 points, it is worth nothing that Connecticut has covered SEVEN consecutive outings in the big dance as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. However, with that line moving down to 6.5 points, we’d be remiss to state that this is a school that is 5-0-1 in their last six NCAA Tournament affairs when favored by 0.5-6.5 points. With a win tonight, UConn will stamp their name as the most successful program in the country since 1999, holding SIX National Championships in twenty-six years, the most of any school during that period.

Projected Outcome: UConn 75, Purdue 67