NBA Play-In: (8) Los Angeles Lakers @ (7) New Orleans Pelicans

With the regular season now complete and the postseason upon us, the chaos of the Play-In Tournament begins as the Los Angeles Lakers remain in the Big Easy for one more night in this affair with the New Orleans Pelicans, crossing paths for the second time in three days. In comparison to the previous campaign, this current incarnation of the Lakers (47-35, 8th in Western Conference) appears comparable to their predecessors, who used the Trade Deadline as a launching pad to get their @#$% together down the stretch and qualify for the Play-In, where they muscled their way into the playoffs proper and upset both the Grizzlies and Warriors in successive series before they were ultimately swept by the (eventual NBA Champion) Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals. The consensus in the City of Angels was that (General Manager) Rob Pelinka and (Head Coach) Darvin Ham cracked the proverbial code, leading Los Angeles to opt towards running it back in 2023-2024, for if they could improve so much in such a truncated period of time, what could they do with a full offseason at their disposal? Indeed, many had pegged this team as a legitimate contender to win their EIGHTEENTH Larry O’Brien Trophy, though after six months of action, the Purple & Gold find themselves sitting in a nearly identical position as they were this time last April. So, what in the name of Jerry West has happened in SoCal, you ask? Well, unlike last season, the dynamic duo of (four-time MVP) LeBron James and (All-Star Forward) Anthony Davis (pictured together below) have remained largely healthy, missing just seventeen games combined, with the latter suiting up for a career-high seventy-six contests. The club also refrained from altering their roster at the deadline, opting for continuity instead, which has been a boon to the likes of (veteran Guard) D’Angelo Russell, who after being heavily rumored to leave via trade, has played some of the most inspired basketball of his career. This time around, the issue has been the supporting cast, as Ham struggled throughout the campaign in search of a balanced starting five only to eventually settle on the quintet that led the charge to the postseason a year ago. With James, Davis, and Russell along with (emerging youngsters) Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves, this is a group that has started twenty-four games this season with a stellar record of 18-6 (.750), with all but ONE of those contests coming within the final thirty-two outings. While it is a legitimate question as to why Ham would tinker so with his rotation, particularly after it proved to be so effective in the past, consider that the goal was to establish some balance both in an effort to keep James and Davis healthy for the long haul while assuring that there wouldn’t be such a precipitous drop-off once either or both was on the bench. Well, veteran additions such as Christian Wood, Cam Reddish, and Taurean Prince didn’t really work out anywhere in the rotation, while Gabe Vincent, who was fresh off a career-defining run to the Finals with Miami, missed all but eleven games with a lingering knee injury. Furthermore, (defensive stopper) Jarred Vanderbilt has been relegated to just twenty-nine contests with injury woes of his own, robbing Ham of his best perimeter defender. Put it altogether and this is a better offensive unit than it was a year ago, only to regress mightily on the defensive end; on the season, the Lakers have shipped 117.4 points per game (23rd Overall) with a defensive rating of 115.3 (16th Overall). Hell, dating back to February 1st, a period in which they have gone 23-10, Los Angeles has had to resort to simply outscoring the opposition, posting 120.8 points on efficient shooting splits of 50.9% overall and 39.3% from three, all the while yielding 117.2 points on 47.4% shooting and 37.4% from downtown. So, what has been the decisive factor, you ask? The charity stripe. James & Co morphed into a free-throw machine late last season and have been by and large a comparable group this year, ranking fourth overall in free-throw/field goal attempt ratio (.216) and second overall in the defensive variety of that same category (.153), attempting 503 more singles than their opponents. Over the last thirty-three outings, they have attempted an average of 8.1 more free-throws than their opponents, with a +6.4 advantage on makes, with each of those figures clocking in at higher than their season marks.

When we last saw the Lakers, they managed to climb out of the bottom half of the Play-In grouping with a commanding 124-108 victory over the Pelicans, ironically setting up tonight’s crucial rematch at Smoothie King Center. The visitors were all business in a first half in which they outscored New Orleans 70-53, shooting a stellar 60.8% from the field, with twenty-three assists on thirty-one made field goals. That would be all Los Angeles needed, as that aforementioned starting five accounted for all but SIXTEEN of their total points, led by none other than James and Davis. The former totaled twenty-eight points on 11-of-20 shooting (55.0%), eleven rebounds, seventeen assists, and five steals, while the latter dropped a team-high thirty points on his former employers on a ridiculous 13-of-17 shooting (76.5%), eleven boards, three dimes, and a pair of steals. Russell buried 5-of-10 treys on his way to scoring nineteen points, while Reaves added twenty of his own in just under thirty minutes of action. The win was their third over the birds this season, which bodes well for the Purple & Gold coming into tonight’s Play-In affair; the Lakers edged the Pelicans by an average margin of 14.3 points in those encounters, shooting a sweltering 53.4% from the field and 40.9% from beyond the arc. Davis, who has faced the franchise that drafted him number one overall back in 2012 on fourteen occasions now, has produced 26.1 points on 53.0% shooting, with 11.3 rebounds 3.4 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.9 blocks in those matchups. From a betting perspective, Los Angeles has been a sub-.500 team against the spread this season, posting a disappointing 38-44 record in that regard, though they have been much more rewarding of late with eight covers in their last fourteen contests. It should also be noted that this is a team that is no stranger to this tournament, having never lost in two Play-In affairs, a 103-100 triumph over the Warriors back in 2021 followed by a 108-102 thriller against the Wolves that required overtime to crown a victor. In both cases, James & Co competed at home in the City of Angels before entering the playoffs proper as the seventh seed. With that being said, there is a train of thought that they would actually be better suited losing tonight’s affair and attempting to broker a different first round matchup, seeing as how a potential encounter with the top-seeded (yet very young) Thunder would be far more advantageous than a rematch with the Nuggets. The Lakers were 3-1 in four meetings with Oklahoma City this season in comparison to suffering SEVEN consecutive losses to Denver. Of course, willingly facing the winner of the other Play-In is akin to playing with fire folks, even if they would be hosting it as Ham’s troops are a combined 1-7 against the Warriors and Kings.

Meanwhile, the playoffs are where a team’s youth and inexperience can really come back to bite them in the #$$, which brings us to the Pelicans (49-33, 7th in Western Conference), who despite being masters of their own destiny have instead become the architects of their own potential demise. Granted, there is cause for optimism in the Big Easy, for New Orleans is actually still competing after game number eighty-two, which is not something that they could say last April, while their forty-nine wins matches their most in a single campaign since 2008-2009. However, they had a golden opportunity to stay out of the Play-In with a victory over the Lakers on Sunday evening and end the regular season on a five-game win streak before entertaining what would have been an intriguing first round matchup with the Timberwolves, but all of that has been thrown out the proverbial window. So, how did these birds arrive to this point, you ask? Well, with just one postseason appearance over the last five years, the Pels served as the stereotypical next team for a while now, armed with a litany of promising young players on cost-controlled contracts just waiting for their moment to break out, while the team itself is set up for the future with a wealth of draft capital. However, apart from a spirited performance in the first round of the 2022 playoffs in which they pushed the top-seeded Suns to six games, this has been a team that has been held back by injuries, particularly to the most notable member of their roster: Zion Williamson. Drafted number one overall a year after shipping the aforementioned Davis to Los Angeles, Williamson (pictured below) was heralded as a generational talent, with rare hyper athleticism packed within the frame of a wrecking ball (6’6″, 284 lbs). Unfortunately, persistent foot injuries coupled with inconsistent conditioning would relegate the big fella to just 114 games in FOUR seasons with that nagging foot sidelining him for the entirety of the 2021-2022 campaign and all but twenty-nine games of last season. Thankfully, that all appears to be in the rearview mirror. After an offseason full of criticism of his conditioning and questions over his future with the franchise, the 23-year-old responded by getting into the best shape of his life and has thus begun to scratch the surface on the immense talent that has been just waiting to be tapped into. Williamson has played in a career-high SEVENTY games thus far, averaging 22.9 points on an efficient 57.0% shooting from the field, along with 5.8 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.1 steals, with his size and physicality around the rim helping to forge the Pels into one of the best defensive teams in the Association. (Head Coach) Willie Green’s troops rank eighth in points allowed (110.7), seventh in field goal percentage allowed (46.4%), second in three-point percentage permitted (34.9%), fifth in turnover percentage (12.9%), eighth in defensive rebounding percentage (76.9%), and eleventh in free-throw/field goal attempt ratio (18.6%). If we’re looking solely at metrics, these birds have been a far more consistent team than their opponent draped in Purple & Gold, ranking eleventh (117.4) and seventh (112.9) in offensive and defensive rating respectively, which equates to a much healthier net rating of +4.5, sixth-best in the Association. Apart from that aforementioned loss to the Lakers on Sunday, it was a good sign that a team of this age had been peaking at the right time; during this period in which they have toppled the Suns (113-105), Kings (135-123), and Warriors (114-109), who were all jockeying for positioning within the Play-In, they have really settled into a rhythm offensively, winning by an average margin of 8.7 points on the strength of 48.0% shooting overall, including a blistering 45.1% from beyond the arc, along with 27.5 assists in comparison to committing just 10.5 turnovers. However, that’s only been half of the story, as the Pels’ swarming defensive pressure has led to SIXTY-SIX turnovers in those contests, parlaying to NINETY-SIX points in their favor, a commanding +29 advantage in that category (+7.2 PPG).

When we last saw the Pelicans, that good will that they had built for themselves in an attempt to avoid the Play-In dissipated entirely with that 108-124 blowout loss at home to the Lakers, which they hope isn’t a portent of things to come tonight. As we covered earlier, New Orleans lost control of this one relatively early, as Los Angeles leaned on their veteran experience to build a staggering 32-point lead. Despite sporting the requisite size and length that would potentially matchup well with this particular opponent, the hosts were throttled in the paint (-26), while they were made to pay for their own mistakes, with nineteen turnovers turning into an untenable TWENTY-SEVEN points for the opposition. Simply put, that 15-point differential was a huge component in the outcome of this contest, as Williamson and (towering Center) Jonas Valanciunas accounted for EIGHT of the home side’s turnovers. It will be interesting how much Green will lean on the latter in tonight’s rematch given that the giant Lithuanian struggled mightily to contend with the aforementioned Davis, coughing up the ball four times and committing three fouls in just over seven minutes of action. These birds aren’t nearly as large without the seven-footer patrolling the paint, which means Williamson would have to see more minutes defending the veteran big man. Either way, the Pels will need more firepower from (veteran Guard) C.J. McCollum, who has been on a heater over the last month and led the team with twenty-five points, four rebounds, and seven assists along with 4-of-9 three-pointers (44.4%). That defeat was their third to the Lakers this season, with doesn’t bode well for tonight’s encounter; this has just been a very poor matchup for Green & Co, who in addition to being unable to slow them down, have also struggled to take care of the rock with 13.8 turnovers per meeting. Ideally, this would be where Williamson announces his postseason arrival, for in that quintet of matchups he has averaged 20.3 points on 57.7% shooting, along with 5.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists. From a betting perspective, the Pelicans have been a more rewarding pick against the spread than their opponent tonight, posting a 43-38-1 record in that regard, though they have managed just three covers in their last nine outings. On the injury front, (veteran Swingman) Brandon Ingram (knee), with the latter individual notable given that he was included in the bounty that LA paid for Davis five years ago. A smooth scorer from anywhere on the court, the former second overall pick has developed into an All-Star in New Orleans, though has missed the last twelve games due to a bone bruise in his left knee, with his return undetermined at this time. Looking ahead, a win tonight would send the Pelicans to Denver where they would meet the Nuggets in the first round, who they lost two of three meetings with this season, while a loss would see these birds hosting the winner of the Kings and Warriors, whom they have fared much better against; New Orleans owns a combined 7-1 record against those two potential opponents, including a commanding 5-0 mark versus Sacramento.

Projected Outcome: Lakers 118, Pelicans 110