(2) UConn @ (8) Marquette

With the final week of the regular season upon us and the NCAA Tournament right around the corner, there is still much to be decided when it comes to jockeying for positioning within the bracket, which brings us to this top-10 clash at Fiserv Forum between the (No. 2) UConn Huskies and the (No. 8) Marquette Golden Eagles. As is often the case when it comes to reigning champions, it was just a week ago when the national media was openly questioning the basketball mortality of UConn (26-3, 16-2 in Big East), who had matched a school record with fourteen consecutive victories en route to enjoying a sixth consecutive week sitting atop the polls. As it turned out, the Huskies would travel to Omaha and get absolutely hammered by (No. 10) Creighton in a 66-85 affair, their heaviest defeat since (Head Coach) Dan Hurley arrived in Storrs back in 2018. A week later and it appears that these dogs simply needed a wakeup call, for in the two outings since then they have clinched their first Big East Regular Season Championship since 2005-2006, blowing out the likes of Seton Hall and Villanova by a combined FIFTY-FOUR points. This must have been particularly satisfying for Hurley’s troops, who suffered their only other league loss to the Pirates (60-75), getting revenge in a 91-61 throttling in which the hosts shot 55.9% from the field and dished out twenty-three assists in comparison to committing just five turnovers, while relegating their opponent to 37.7% shooting and a scant four assists. As was the case last season, the strength of this group lies in their size and length, with Hurley able to flood the gaps with a wealth of athletes standing 6-6 or greater, including a pair of big men towering over 6-10. As such, Connecticut is the most effective defensive team in the conference, yielding just 64.5 points per game (1st in Big East) on 40.0% shooting from the floor (1st in Big East), including 45.6% from within the arc (2nd in Big East) and paltry 28.9% beyond it (1st in Big East), while outrebounding the opposition by a healthy margin of 6.9 boards. This group does a good job of sharing the wealth on the opposite end of the hardwood, with five different players scoring in double-figures, led by (Senior Guard) Tristen Newton, who has really stepped into the role of chief playmaker after serving as a supporting member of last year’s national champion. Newton (pictured below) has raised his scoring from 10.1 points to 15.3, with his finishing around the rim improving from 38.0% on two-point field goals to 49.4%, while also leading the Huskies in both rebounding (7.1) and assists (6.4). The former East Carolina transfer has been a jack-of-all-trades in his final year of eligibility, while a number of other supporting castmates have stepped into greater roles, including (fellow Senior) Cam Spencer and (Sophomore Forwards) Alex Karaban and the towering Donovan Clingan, who have combined for 16.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks.

When we last saw UConn, that aforementioned 91-61 thumping of Seton Hall clinched their first Big East Championship in eighteen years. This one was never close, folks, as the Huskies raced out to a 44-22 led at halftime and led by as much as thirty when it was all said and done. We went over the numbers earlier, but there is more to unpack here, as Hurley’s troops repeatedly made the Pirates pay for their mistakes, turning eleven turnovers into TWENTY-FOUR points, equating to a +16 differential in that particular department, which also played a sizable role in their 17-6 advantage in fastbreak points. Clingan had a huge game with nineteen points, eleven rebounds, and five blocks, while Newton logged seventeen points, ten assists, and 4-of-8 shooting from downtown. However, (Freshman Guard) Stephon Castle, the ninth overall recruit in the 2023 class, was arguably the most impactful performer, leading the home side with twenty-one points on an efficient 9-of-12 shooting (75.0%), along with four rebounds, three assists, and a pair of steals. From a betting perspective, UConn is 17-11-1 against the spread thus far, covering five of their last six outings overall, four of which coming as a favorite of at least 12.5 points. Looking at the particular matchup, the home team has won and covered each of the last five meetings between these schools, with the Huskies embarrassing the Eagles in an 81-53 blowout at XL Center back on February 17th. Connecticut’s size and shooting caused all kinds of problems in this one, with the hosts netting 11-of-30 triples (36.7%) leading to an 18-point advantage in that regard, while owning a 39-25 edge on the glass, with fifteen offensive rebounds gifting them a wealth of second-chance opportunities. Newton and Spencer combined for twenty-nine points on 10-of-20 shooting (50.0%), including 5-of-13 from three (38.4%), with fourteen rebounds, eleven assists, and a pair of steals. Clingan added a team-high seventeen points and ten rebounds, logging five of the offensive variety along the way. Looking ahead, the Huskies will close out the regular season this weekend at home against Providence, whom they bested 74-65 in Rhode Island on January 31st, as they get set to enter the Big East Tournament as the number one overall seed.

Meanwhile, coaches talk a lot about when you enter the NCAA Tournament, it helps to have the winds of momentum to your back, and in the case of Marquette (22-7, 13-5 in Big East), that simply hasn’t been the case. Granted, we have no idea as to how often that (Head Coach) Shaka Smart has used that term in recent weeks as his Golden Eagles have thus fallen out of the running for the Big East Regular Season Title. So much of building a CV for March is about who you beat and when you beat them, though the inverse can be true as well: who beat you and when you were beaten. In this case, these birds have managed to bookend three consecutive victories of 20+ points with a pair of hard losses to the two teams directly above them int he standings: Creighton and their opponent tonight, UConn. We’ll get into their loss to the Blue Jays from the weekend, but as we touched upon earlier, the Eagles were run right out of XL Center when they visited Storrs three weeks ago. Simply put, Smart’s troops couldn’t throw the ball into the proverbial ocean in this one, folks, netting a dismal 36.8% of their attempts, including 5-of-23 from beyond the arc (21.7%), while getting to the charity stripe on only eight occasions (6-of-8). They also dished out a scant six assists while being doubled up on turnovers (13), as Connecticut’s pressure on the ball completely disrupted their offense. Smart’s teams have always thrived when pressuring their opponents, but as the old adage goes, teams that rely upon pressure often struggle to deal with it themselves, which was the case here. On the season, Marquette has logged 15.3 takeaways per game (16th Overall), which allows them to get out into transition and create easy opportunities. However, when they can’t do that and get pinned back in their own half of the hardwood, their lack of size on the front line can be exposed, which is precisely what happened here. (Guards) Kameron Jones and Tyler Kolek are experienced floor generals who are adept at making plays at both ends of the court, with the former leading the team in scoring (16.1), while the latter is one of the best distributors in the country (7.6 assists), with both knocking down a healthy 40.0% of their attempts from beyond the arc. Jones (pictured below) was really the only bright spot in that loss at UConn, finishing with fifteen points on 6-of-12 shooting (50.0%), four rebounds, two assists, and a steal, though he did struggle from deep on just 2-of-8 shooting (25.0%). (Senior Forward) Oso Ighodaro needs to be a consistent presence in the paint, for he is really the only player within Smart’s rotation that has the necessary size and length to battle Connecticut’s plethora of bigs in the paint. At 14.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1.3 blocks, his wingspan can cause problems around the rim while pressing passing lanes to boot.

When we last saw Marquette, they too met defeat in their annual trip to Omaha, falling to Creighton in a 75-89 affair. This one was tightly contested in the first half, with the hosts clinging to a narrow 42-40 lead at intermission. however, the second half featured a wild flurry from the Blue Jays, who outscored the visiting side by a dozen points. The difference in this one was ball movement, meaning that the Golden Eagles benefitted from very little while their opponent looked like they were playing a game of pinball. On the box score, Smart’s troops finished with as many assists as they had turnovers (7), while the home side assisted on NINETEEN of thirty-three field goals. Without the aforementioned Kolek to run the offense, Marquette collapsed under the pressure from their fellow fowl, leaving Jones and () David Joplin to carry the load in what became a very predictable, isolation-heavy performance. The two combined for forty-four points on 17-of-29 shooting (58.6%), including 5-of-11 from downtown (45.5%), thou it wasn’t enough to overcome the Creighton onslaught. Three-point shooting was decisive in this one (9-13), folks, as one team benefitted from a lot of clean looks due to that fluid ball-movement, while the other met contested shot after contested shot. From a betting perspective, like their opponent tonight, Marquette is also 17-11-1 against the spread thus far, with that loss in Omaha snapping a run of ten covers in twelve contests. As we stated earlier, the home sides have reigned supreme in this series for a few years now, with the Golden Eagles getting the better of the Huskies in each of their last two encounters at Fiserv Forum. On the injury front, the absence of Kolek, who missed the weekend’s affair at Creighton with an oblique strain is expected to miss the final two games of the regular season, as Smart seeks to get his floor general back to 100% before the Big East Tournament kicks off next week. Ighodaro is also listed as questionable due to illness, having also missed the trip to Omaha. Looking ahead, the Eagles will close out the regular season with a trip to Xavier before entering the conference tourney, where they will look to get back into shape prior to the NCAA Tournament in two weeks. It remains to be seen where these birds will nest in regard to seeding for the big dance, though it should be noted that they have built themselves a solid CV, with quality wins over the likes of (No. 12) Illinois (71-64), (No. 14) Kansas (73-59), and Creighton (72-67), while coming up just short against (No. 3) Purdue (75-78).

Our Call; UConn 78, Marquette 70