Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets

With roughly a month left in the regular season, a potential NBA Finals preview is on tap tonight at Mile High, as the reigning champion Denver Nuggets play host to the Boston Celtics, who own the league’s best record by a sizable margin. Given how strong they were over the previous two seasons, it was difficult to imagine the Celtics (48-13, 1st in Eastern Conference) reaching a higher level of play, but that is precisely what has happened, as they lead their competition in the East by an impressive EIGHT games. In fact, it is highly probable that Boston will end up owning homecourt throughout the playoffs, as they sit no less than six games ahead of any of the teams in the competitive Western Conference, including 6.5 contests ahead of their opponent tonight. So, what in the name of Red Auerbach has happened in Beantown, you ask? Well, there are a number of differences between this year’s team and the one that reached the Eastern Conference Finals in each of the last two campaigns, though the most notable has been the additions of (veteran Point Guard) Jrue Holiday and (sharpshooting Center) Kristaps Porzingis, who together have altered the chemistry of the rotation in ways that few in the Northeast could have imagined. Beginning with Holiday, the two-time All-Star arrived via trade with the Trail Blazers in exchange Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams along with a number of draft picks, just three days after he was dealt from the Bucks to Portland in a three-team blockbuster. A five-time All-Defense selection, the 33-year-old was an integral piece of Milwaukee’s NBA Championship unit from 2020-2021, all the while being regarded as arguably the finest two-way Point Guard in the Association. As for Porzingis (pictured below alongside Holiday), the towering Latvian had been dogged by injuries throughout his career, though performed well enough last season in Washington to attract the attention of Boston, who acquired him in a three-team trade featuring Memphis. Both players fit into the two-way narrative of (Head Coach) Joe Mazzula seamlessly, with Holiday’s point of attack defense and Porzingis’ shot-blocking making them ideal additions to an already strong roster. As a result, the Celtics lead the NBA in net rating (+11.4), while ranking in the top-four in points scored (121.0) and allowed (109.8), while sitting atop the league in three-pointers attempted (42.3) and made (16.3), rebounds (47.2), and opponents free-throw/field goal attempt ratio (.152), which are all indicators of an elite team. Putting this into practice, they utterly ANNIHILATED the Warriors in rematch of the NBA Finals from two years ago, thumping Golden State in a 140-88 massacre. Mazzula’s troops netted a scintillating 55.2% of their attempts from the field, including 25-of-49 three-pointers (51.0%), with thirty-five assists in comparison to just seven turnovers. Porzingis didn’t even play in this one, and as it turned out he wasn’t needed either, as the home team lifted their starters midway through the third period. (All-Star Swingmen) Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown scored twenty-seven and twenty-nine points respectively in less than twenty-six minutes apiece, knocking down 9-of-15 treys along the way (60.0%), as the hosts earned their THIRD 50-point victory of the campaign.

When we last saw the Celtics, it was a bit of different story as they followed that 50-point deluge with a curious 104-105 loss as the Cavaliers. Boston led 87-71 heading into the fourth quarter, only to be outscored 34-17 in the period, in which they shot a miserable 8-of-26 from the field (30.8%), including 0-of-8 from beyond the arc (0.0%). Meanwhile, Cleveland caught fire, shooting 11-of-15 (73.3%) and knocking down 8-of-11 threes (72.7%). The visitors did have one final look to win the game, as Tatum missed a contested 19-footer with one second left, though there was some controversy on what many felt was a foul, but turned into a jump ball with fractions of a second left on the clock effectively ending the game altogether. Tatum finished with twenty-six points, thirteen rebounds, and a pair of assists, though shot just 8-of-21 from the field (38.1%), while Brown added twenty-one points on 8-of-20 shooting (40.0%), with a pair of boards and four assists. Porzingis returned after missing the previous contest, scoring twenty-four points, nine rebounds, and three blocks. From a betting perspective, the Celtics are a middling 29-29-3 against the spread thus far, thanks in large part to being branded heavy favorites by the oddsmakers on a number of occasions, with seventeen games as double-digit favorites. Tuesday night’s loss snapped a streak of six consecutive SU/ATS victories, while also bringing an end to their 11-game outright win streak. Looking at this particular matchup, Boston had won six straight meetings between these franchises, though have surrendered each of the last two encounters, including their most recent, a 100-102 affair in Beantown back on January 19th. Regarded by many as the finest game of the season regardless of opponents, the two sides only reinforced the notion that they will be crossing paths once again come June. The hosts clung to a 61-55 advantage at halftime, though were outscored 47-39 over the final two quarters, failing to net a number of attempts down the stretch. This was one of the few games in which Mazzula’s charges outright struggled on the offensive end, shooting 42.7% from the field, including 14-of-44 from downtown (31.8%), and just twenty-one assists. It was a hard day at the office for both Tatum and Brown, who combined for thirty-five points on 15-of-43 shooting (34.8%), including 2-of-17 from three (11.7%). On the injury front, Brown is listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s showdown in Denver due to a sacroiliac strain in his pelvis. Needless to say, this is potentially a major loss for the shamrocks, who could be without 22.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.1 steals tonight. Looking ahead, the Celtics will continue this road trip with a stop in Phoenix on Saturday followed by dates with the Blazers and Jazz before finally returning home next week for the second leg of their tie with the Suns.

Meanwhile, as we reach the stretch run of the campaign, the Nuggets (42-20, 3rd in Western Conference) have rounded back into form as one of the true favorites to emerge from the always competitive Western Conference. After winning the first Larry O’Brien Trophy in franchise history last June, Denver entered this season with a very strong case to repeat as champions, reveling in their identity as a self-made juggernaut. Indeed, in an era in which free agency and blockbuster trades routinely shift the balance of power across the league, this is a team that was largely constructed the old-fashioned way: drafting and developing. Of the ten players that have logged the most minutes within (Head Coach) Mike Malone’s rotation, six of them were drafted by the club and all of them are under the age of thirty to boot, with nary a top-five pick among their number. If there has ever been a case of hitting a long shot in the draft, (two-time MVP) Nikola Jokic is the gold standard; the towering Serbian international was the forty-first pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, arriving stateside woefully out of shape, though has cultivated himself into arguably the most dominant force in the Association. Operating as a Point-Center, Jokic (pictured below) is easily one of the most unique talents that the league has ever seen, averaging 25.9 points on 57.9% shooting, 12.3 rebounds, 9.2 assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.9 bocks, all the while logging nineteen triple-doubles. This season will likely see him average at least nine assists for the second consecutive season, which is remarkable for a player of his stature. Malone has surrounded him with a bevy of shooters and athletes for him to set up, including another pair of homegrown products, (Shooting Guard) Jamal Murray and (Swingman) Michael Porter Jr. Murray’s return to health from a torn ACL that claimed nearly two years of his career was a major component in their run to the O’Brien last June, while Porter’s steady growth on both ends of the floor have further fleshed out the attack. Winners of six of their last seven games since the All-Star Break, the Nuggets have really put their foot on the proverbial gas pedal of late, averaging 118.1 points on a staggering 51.6% shooting from the field, including 36.4% from beyond the arc, while dishing out a healthy 32.0 assists in comparison to committing just 13.1 turnovers, while relegating the opposition to a mere 107.0 points on 43.6% shooting. Those are margins of +11.1 in points and +8.0% in field goal percentage, which spells dominance in no uncertain terms. Given the relative inexperience of their competition at the top of the West, there is a sense that Denver is turning up at the right time, understanding that carrying momentum into the postseason is paramount to achieving postseason success.

When we last saw the Nuggets, they too fell victim to what can only be described as looking ahead, capitulating to the Suns in 107-117 overtime thriller on Tuesday night. After looking sluggish through three quarters of play, Denver clawed their way back into it in the final stanza, outscoring Phoenix 21-12 in a period in which both teams were clearly running on fumes. The hosts netted just8-of-24 attempts (33.3%), including 3-of-13 from beyond the arc (23.1%), while the visitors were even worse on 5-of-24 shooting (20.8%). However, after a 12-0 run gave them a 102-99 lead with forty-five seconds left in regulation, the visiting side managed to send it into overtime on the strength of Kevin Durant’s first triples of the night. From there, it was ALL Suns, who went on to edge Jokic & Co 15-5 in overtime, thanks to eight points from Durant on three attempts. When it was all said and done, the triumvirate of Jokic, Murray, and Porter accounted for seventy-three points on 28-of-61 shooting (45.9%), including 10-of-25 from downtown (40.0%), with thirty rebounds, and fourteen assists. The reigning champs owned a clear edge in fastbreak points (26-13), though were at a disadvantage in points via turnovers (13-18), while also coming up short at the charity stripe (-8). From a betting perspective, the Nuggets are 27-33-2 against the spread thus far, with Tuesday night’s defeat marking their second non-cover in three games after enjoying a run of four consecutive covers following the All-Star Break. In regard to tonight’s matchup, Denver has taken each of the last two meetings with Boston, including that aforementioned 102-100 epic back in mid-January. Despite being outscored by eighteen points from beyond the arc, Malone’s troops made up for it by slowing down the tempo to a crawl and executing in the halfcourt. The visitors shot a stellar 51.9% from the field against arguably the best defensive team in the Association, committing just nine turnovers as the ball remained in the capable hands of Jokic and Murray throughout the affair. In fact, those two did just about all of the damage in Beantown, with the Serbian totaling thirty-four points on 14-of-22 shooting (63.6%), twelve rebounds, and nine assists, while the Kentucky product led the team with thirty-five points on a blistering 15-of-21 shooting (71.4%), including 3-of-7 from three (42.9%), with eight rebounds, and five assists to boot. Looking ahead, the Nuggets will round out this current homestand with visits from the Jazz and Raptors before embarking on a four-game road trip with stops in Miami, San Antonio, Dallas, and Minnesota, which will likely go a long way towards shaping the standings at the top of the West.

Our Call; Celtics 114, Nuggets 110