Super Bowl LVIII: Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

Finally, it all comes down to this, as the Kansas City Chiefs look to become the first repeat holders of the Lombardi Trophy in nearly two decades, against the San Francisco 49ers, who in turn are simply trying to finally break through after coming so agonizingly close in recent years, in this, Super Bowl LVIII from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. You may get a sense of deja vu in the buildup for this one, folks, for these teams squared off in Super Bowl LIV back in 2019, with the Chiefs overcoming a 20-10 deficit to earn their first Lombardi since 1969. Granted, these two teams have changed a great deal in the last four years, though at their core they absolutely championship material.

Believe it or not, the Chiefs (11-6, 1st in AFC West) spent much of the campaign looking like a shell of themselves rather than a team vying for their fourth Lombardi in five years. A midseason swoon in which they lost five of eight contests, hastened by a plethora of drops, penalties, and turnovers (-10) actually had Kansas City on the brink of missing the playoffs altogether. However, (Head Coach) Andy Reid and (two-time MVP) Patrick Mahomes managed to flip the proverbial switch and redefine themselves into a physical, power-running team, which they rode to their eighth straight AFC West Title and three successive postseason victories. Over their last 5 outings, this is an offense that has averaged 127.4 rushing yads per game, which is notable because they only cracked 100 yards on the ground twice in the previous 11 games. Unsurprisingly, the turnover margin flipped in their favor (+1), with Mahomes rediscovering his connection with (All-Pro Tight End) Travis Kelce, who has 23 catches for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns in these playoffs.

Meanwhile, the 49ers (12-5, 1st in NFC West) looked like the clear frontrunner for Super Bowl glory for much of the season, up until getting blasted by the Ravens in a brutal 19-33 loss on Christmas Day. Since that point, San Francisco has yet to resemble the juggernaut that they had been, as they were forced to rally back in the second half of each of their postseason affairs, a 24-21 victory over the Packers in the Division Round followed 34-31 triumph over the Lions in the Conference Championship. On both occasions, the Niners found themselves in an early hole, thanks in large part to a defense that has begun springing leaks at the absolute wrong time. They trailed 24-7 at halftime against Detroit, only to run off 27 unanswered points after intermission, stopping their opponent twice on fourth down and forcing a key fumble deep in enemy territory. (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan & Co are beginning to change the narrative that they can't play without a lead, with the likes of newly minted Offensive Player of the Year, looking like a modern-day Marshall Faulk, amassing a staggering 2,283 yards from scrimmage and 25 touchdowns in the regular season and playoffs.

Things to Know: Approximately 73% of the money and 68% of all bets are on the Chiefs. San Francisco is the only team in the NFL to be favored in every game this season (9-9-1 ATS). Kansas City finds themselves as an underdog for the third consecutive games, which marks the first time that has been the case for Mahomes since his first 3 starts back in 2018. Speaking of Mahomes, he has been sublime as an underdog, posting a 10-3 record SU and 11-1-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Mahomes has beaten the Niners in each of their three meetings, including Super Bowl LIV where he completed 26-of-42 passes for 286 yards and 3 touchdowns. When these teams clash, there is typically a plethora of points scored, with each of their last three encounters surpassing 50 points, including a whopping 67 when they crossed paths last season (44-23). San Francisco is 0-4 in their 4 games against opponents above .500. The 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 150+ rushing yards. The Niners are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after shipping 30+ points.

Playmakers to Watch: Who else but Mahomes, who in three Super Bowls has completed 61.8% of his throws for an average of 246.0 yards on 5.87 net yards per attempt, with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, with 7 sacks. Keep an eye on how he uses his legs, as he has rushed for ninety-five yads and another score, including a crucial 26-yard scramble late in the fourth quarter of last year's triumph over the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII. Furthermore, Mahomes has FEASTED on the Niners, completing 65.7% of his passes for 341.0 yards on a healthy 8.70 net yards per attempt, with 9 total touchdowns in comparison to 3 interceptions.

Playmakers to Watch: In juxtaposition to Mahomes, Brock Purdy is the one to watch for the 49ers. The last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft is about as unheralded as they come, though has nonetheless enjoyed a meteoric rise to this stage. Including the playoffs, the former Mr. Irrelevant is a stellar 21-5 as the starting QB with a completion percentage of 67.7% for an average of 259.3 yards on a very healthy 8.76 net yards per attempt, with 49 touchdowns opposed to 16 interceptions. Shanahan's chosen triggerman, he operates like a Point Guard in basketball, distributing the ball to his plethora of playmakers. However, he has self-destructed when asked to make too many plays outside the confines of the system; in his 4 losses this season, Purdy has been near disastrous with 11 turnovers opposed to three touchdowns.

Our Call; Chiefs 34, 49ers 30