NFL Playoffs: Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

The Divisional Round concludes with a familiar matchup, as the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Kansas City Chiefs travel to Orchard Park for a showdown against the surging Buffalo Bills, in the latest chapter of one of the best modern rivals that the NFL has to offer. Despite appearing to be well below the level that earned them their third Lombardi Trophy last February, the Chiefs (11-6, 1st in AFC West) nonetheless managed to secure their EIGHTH consecutive AFC West crown, the most consecutive first place finishes in the history of the division. However, we would be well to warn you that this is not the same team that rallied back to defeat the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, for if they found themselves in another division, they may have missed the postseason altogether. So, what in the name of Len Dawson has been going on in Arrowhead, you ask? Well, like many great teams, this is a group that has become a victim of their own success, succumbing to the attrition of free agency and other transactions. Sure, (Head Coach) Andy Reid and (General Manager) Brett Veach managed to avoid this pitfall last season despite dealing away (All-Pro Wideout) Tyreek Hill in what was equal parts a blockbuster trade and a salary dump for the club. They did a stellar job in replenishing their ranks, bringing in veteran pass-catchers such as JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, along with a host of draft picks that turned into young playmakers on the defensive side of the football. These moves worked out beautifully, with the offense ranking first in a litany of categories and (perennial Pro-Bowler) Patrick Mahomes turning in arguably the finest campaign of his career (which is really saying something) en route to earning his second MVP award. This past Spring saw Smith-Schuster leave for greener pastures, while the Offensive Line underwent sizeable changes, what with the additions of (veteran Tackles) Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith to man the flanks. While the defense has remained stellar, the offense has regressed mightily, ranking fifteenth in points scored (21.8), the worst since Mahomes (pictured below) was drafted back in 2018. Furthermore, the vertical passing game has all but disappeared (6.3 net yards per attempt) due in large part to an uninspiring Receiving Corps that has struggled to get open and catch the damn football. Seriously, folks, that last bit has been the topic of discussion all season, with the Chiefs dropping a whopping THIRTY-NINE passes thrown by Mahomes, including twenty-six from Receivers, which has driven the 28-year-old and just about everyone in the state of Missouri crazy. It also certainly hasn’t helped that they have come in the biggest games: (veteran Wideout) Kadarius Toney’s THREE drops were all anyone could talk about following their season-opening loss to the Lions, while Valdes-Scantling’s whiff on the would-be game-winner against the Eagles was stunning. Last season, Mahomes led the NFL with forty-one touchdowns, only to toss twenty-seven of them this year, with this suddenly inefficient attack committing twenty-eight turnovers (23rd Overall), equating to a disastrous -11 differential, while hitting paydirt in the red zone less frequently with a 54.1% success rate (16th Overall). Fortunately, they didn’t need an offensive explosion in last weekend’s 26-7 Wild Card triumph over the visiting Dolphins, who were a shell of their prolific selves in what were uncomfortably frigid temperatures. Seriously, folks, it was -4 degrees at Arrowhead Stadium which were conditions not conducive to Miami, who struggled mightily to get much going outside of a 53-yard touchdown courtesy of Hill early in the second quarter. As the game went on, the visitors found it more difficult to battle the elements, turning it over on downs on each of their final three possessions of the night. (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo’s troops to 1-of-12 on third down and 3-of-6 on fourth, relegating the league’s leading passer, Tua Tagovailoa to 199 yards on 20-of-39 passing, a touchdown and an interception, along with a pair of sacks, five hits, and seven pressures. As for Mahomes, he completed 23-of-41 passes for 262 yards and an 11-yard touchdown to (Rookie Wideout) Rashee Rice to open their ledger in the first quarter, with the young pass-catcher hauling in eight of twelve targets for 130 yards. (Pro-Bowl Tight End) Travis Kelce added seven receptions on ten targets for seventy-one yards, while (Sophomore Tailback) Isiah Pacheco rushed for eighty-nine yards and a touchdown on twenty-four carries.

From a betting perspective, the Chiefs are once again a darling for those who have played them on the money line (12-6 SU), while also proving to be rewarding against the spread (10-7-1). In that latter regard, Kansas City got their act together down the stretch, emerging from a run of four consecutive games without a cover (0-3-1 ATS) to have now covered three straight outings, including last weekend’s frigid affair with Miami. However, all story that has dominated the news headlines coming into this rematch with the Bills is that this evening’s trip to Orchard Park represents the first true road game in the playoffs for Mahomes, and as such he and his teammates find themselves as underdogs, which doesn’t happen very often. Dating back to last season, Kansas City has received points from the oddsmakers on just four occasions, though only three of them really count given that Mahomes and a host of starters were rested in the regular season finale against the Chargers a few weeks ago. When the two-time MVP has been a dog, he has generally been sensational, winning the other three tilts outright, including Super Bowl LVII in which he successfully rallied KC from a late 10-point deficit. For those wondering, the Chiefs are 13-2-1 in their last sixteen contests as a road underdog, though that is a trend that certainly predates the decorated Quarterback. However, it should be stated that this is a team that has struggled to cover the spread following a sizable victory; Reid’s troops have failed to cover five straight games after a win of 14+ points, which is the case this evening. Looking at this particular matchup, Kansas City is just 1-3 against Buffalo since drafting Mahomes in the regular season, with the signal-caller completing 63.8% of his throws for an average of 276.5 yards on 6.60 net yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns opposed to five interceptions. With that being said, it has been a completely different story in the playoffs, where Mahomes has taken each of their two meetings, including the 2020 AFC Championship Game and a thrilling overtime epic a year later in the Divisional Round. In those postseason encounters, Mahomes has eviscerated the Bills defense to the tune of 351.5 yards on a healthy 8.47 net yards per attempt, while completing an efficient 75.0% of his passes with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. When he and Josh Allen (much more on him in a bit) matched wits back in early December, a 17-20 showdown at Arrowhead Stadium, the hosts struggled to find a rhythm offensively in what proved to be a defensive struggle. Reid & Co amassed 346 total yards, rushing for just eighty-two yards on eighteen carries, with a pair of crucial turnovers halting their progress, including an interception of Mahomes on the opening drive deep into enemy territory. The home side would have an opportunity to draw even or take the lead late, as Kelce surprisingly lateraled a short pass back to Toney, who proceeded to take ball twenty-four yards for what appeared to be the go-ahead touchdown, only to be negated after it was discovered that the much-maligned Wideout had lined up offside, which prompted Mahomes to lose his mind on the sideline. When it was all said and done, the QB completed 25-of-43 passes for 271 yards, a touchdown and that opening pick, while Kelce and Rice were targeted ten times apiece, with the former hauling in six passes for a team-high eighty-three yards, and the latter reeling in seven catches for seventy-two yards and short score late in the third quarter. On the injury front, (Defensive Lineman) Derrick Nnadi (triceps), (Sophomore Wideout) Skyy Moore (knee), and (Offensive Lineman) Wanya Morris (concussion) are all out of action with various maladies, while Toney if listed as questionable with a sore hip. (Linebacker) Willie Gay Jr. (wrist) and (Cornerback) L’Jarius Sneed (calf) are two of the most influential defenders at Reid’s disposal, and they are both expected to play despite being limited throughout the week of practice. Looking ahead, a win this evening would send Kansas City to a SIXTH consecutive AFC Championship Game, though it remains to be seen if they will remain on the road against top-seeded Baltimore or returning to Arrowhead for a date with upstart Houston.

Meanwhile, the Bills (11-6, 1st in AFC East) have now successfully circled the wagons after a particularly dreadful midseason swoon, going on to win their final five games en route to capturing their fourth consecutive division crown. Like their opponent this evening, Buffalo was forced to do some soul searching; losers of five out of eight games, (Head Coach) Sean McDermott & Co entered their bye week at a middling 6-6 thanks to a stretch in which they committed FIFTEEN turnovers (-5 differential), prompting the skipper to take a page from his former James Madison classmate and fire his Offensive Coordinator, replacing Ken Dorsey with (QB Coach) Joe Brady. With a tough remaining schedule that featured trips to Kansas City and Miami bookending a date with Dallas, the deck was stacked against this team, who have rose to the occasion and built quite a bit of momentum for themselves in the process. So, what in the name of Jim Kelly has happened in Orchard Park, you ask? Well, the shift to Brady as offensive playcaller has seen the offense as whole become more balanced, rushing for 148.8 yards on thirty-six carries per game, which has helped allow them to generally dominate time of possession, with over thirty-two minutes of the offense being on the field in four of their last five outings. This change has also helped the unit clean up some of the many mistakes that they had been making this season, with eight of them committed during this stretch, translating to a +1 margin along the way. On the whole of the campaign, the Bills totaled TWENTY-EIGHT turnovers (23rd Overall), due in large part to the aggressive play of (veteran Quarterback) Josh Allen, who has thrown a career-high EIGHTEEN interceptions, the fifth-most in the league. For four years now, Allen (pictured below) has been one of the best in the NFL, averaging a staggering 4,385.0 total yards per game with 173 passing and rushing touchdowns, by far and away the most in the league during that period. However, if there is one drawback it is that such statistical success has also come with a good deal of risk, for no player has committed more turnovers between 2020 and 2023 than the 27-year-old, who has tossed fifty-seven interceptions and lost twenty-three fumbles. This season, he has accounted for FORTY-FOUR touchdowns (including a career-high 15 rushing scores) in comparison to TWENTY-ONE turnovers, with eleven of them coming within that aforementioned midseason swoon. Fortunately, McDermott’s defense has been nothing short of opportunistic themselves, offsetting the offense’s errors with THIRTY takeaways, the third-most in the league this season. In fact, this is a unit that forced turnovers in bunches, claiming multiple takeaways in nine different games, owning a stellar 8-2 record in such games. This includes last Monday’s 31-17 victory over the Steelers on Wild Card Weekend, an affair that was ultimately moved after serious snowfall swept through Orchard Park. Heavy favorites in this one, the hosts played the part, racing out to 21-0 lead, highlighted by a 29-yard touchdown pass from Allen to (Rookie Tight End0 Dalton Kincaid, followed by a sensational 52-yard sprint to the end zone from the Quarterback. However, the well would begin to dry up for the hosts, who could muster just a field goal for most of the second half, allowing Pittsburgh to get within seven points in the fourth quarter. Thankfully, Allen put an end to that, finding (unheralded Receiver) Khalil Shakir for a 17-yard score to effectively end the game. When it was all said and done, the home side amassed 368 total yards, including a179 of the rushing variety, while logging a pair of takeaways to boot. Allen completed 21-of-30 passes for 203 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for another seventy-four yards and that aforementioned score. Kincaid reeled in three of his six targets for fifty-nine yards, while (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Stefon Diggs added fifty-two yards on seven receptions. (Sophomore Tailback) James Cook rushed for seventy-nine yards on fourteen carries, while (Sophomore Cornerback) Kaiir Elam picked off Mason Rudolph early int he second quarter.

From a betting perspective, the Bills have proven to be one of the great mysteries of this season, posting an 12-6 record straight-up despite being one of the least-rewarding teams against the spread with an 8-10 mark. Buffalo has won but failed to cover FOUR games this year, including two of their last four outings, which highlights the disconnect between the team that they are versus the group that they are perceived to be. Could this be the case of living off one’s reputation? McDermott’s troops have been favored in all but THREE of their contests this Fall, going 7-8 versus the spread along the way. Furthermore, NINE of those tilts have come as favorites of at least 7.5 points, covering just two of them along the way. However, that clearly isn’t the case this evening, which is probably a good thing for Allen & Co, who have been far more successful as a smaller favorite, owning a 3-1 record as a favorite of no more than three points this season. It should also be stated that this is a team that has generally played to the level of their competition, going unbeaten against the spread (0-4-1 ATS) in their last five tilts against opponents above .500. Of course, that will be the case in this latest edition to their rivalry with the Chiefs, whom they have split the last six encounters with since Allen was drafted back in 2018. As we covered earlier, there has been a clear divide between these teams in the regular season, where the Bills have taken three out of four, in comparison to the postseason, where they have suffered a pair of crushing defeats. Twice in the last three years they have seen their campaign come to an abrupt end at Arrowhead Stadium, which is why it is so important that today’s showdown is taking place in Orchard Park. In the regular season, Allen has completed 58.5% of his passes for an average of 249.8 yards on 7.14 net yards per attempt, with eleven total touchdowns opposed to three turnovers, while in those two seismic playoffs he connected on 64.7% of his throws for 308.0 yards on 6.43 net yards per attempt with six touchdowns and an interception, along with another 78.0 rushing yards to boot. In that 20-17 victory at Arrowhead back on December 10th, the visitors jumped on their hosts early, engineering back-to-back touchdown drives, the latter of which encompassed twelve plays for seventy-three yards, culminating in a 6-yard jaunt into the end zone courtesy of Allen. McDermott’s charges would manage just a pair of field goals the rest of the way, which certainly allowed Kansas City to get back into things, threatening to the very end. When it was all said and done, Buffalo controlled this contest with their ground game, rushing for 118 yards on twenty-eight carries, while forcing a pair of significant turnovers that allowed them to possess the football for a commanding 35:21, which is a common strategy employed against the Chiefs. Allen completed 23-of-42 passes for 233 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while rushing for thirty-two yards and another score. Cook accumulated 141 yards from scrimmage on fifteen touches, highlighted by a 24-yard rushing touchdown to open their ledger, while eight other Bills hauled in a pass from their Quarterback. On the injury front, this is NOT a healthy team coming into this Divisional Playoff, with (Wideout) Gabriel Davis (knee), (Cornerback) Christian Benford (knee), (Safety) Taylor Rapp (calf), and (Linebacker) Baylon Spector (back) all listed as out of action this evening with various ailments. Furthermore, (Cornerbacks) Taron Johnson (concussion) and Rasul Douglas (knee) are listed as questionable along with (Linebacker) Terrel Bernard (ankle), who were all limited throughout the week of practice, potentially compounding concerns at positions where this defense was already perilously thin. Remember, Buffalo has been without (longtime starters) Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano since September due to season-ending injuries. Looking ahead, if the Bills finally get over the hump against the Chiefs, then they will be off to their tenth Conference Championship Game in franchise history and first since 2020, though it remains to be seen if they will be heading to Baltimore or hosting Houston next Sunday.

Projected Outcome: Bills 24, Chiefs 20