NFL Playoffs: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions

With half of the Divisional Round of the Playoffs in the books, it is on to Sunday’s slate of action, as the Detroit Lions host their second consecutive home game in the postseason after a wait of over three decades, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are fresh off of eliminating the reigning NFC Champions. Oh, what a difference a year has made for the Buccaneers (9-8, 1st in NFC South), who have grossly exceeded expectations in what was for all intents and purposes supposed to be a transition year for the franchise. After parting ways with (7-time Super Bowl Champion) Tom Brady, this was a franchise that was hitting the proverbial reset button and closing the book on the most successful era in their history. With Brady at Quarterback, Tampa Bay went 32-18 from 2020 to 2022, a period which included three consecutive postseason appearances, back-to-back division titles, and a Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LV. That success was built on the backs of a largely veteran roster, particularly on the offensive side of the football, and when Brady finally opted to call it a career, (Head Coach) Todd Bowles and (General Manager) Jason Licht decided that they were going to turn their attention to youth ($80 million in dead cap space also influenced this decision). As a result, the Bucs fielded the second-most players with two or less years of experience, second only to the Rams, including thirteen rookies. However, they also benefitted from some inspired additions in Free Agency, chief among them the addition of (veteran Quarterback) Baker Mayfield, who has resurrected his once-promising career on the Gulf Coast. By now we should all be well-acquainted with the story of Mayfield (pictured below), the number one overall pick of the Cleveland Browns in the 2018 NFL Draft, who would lead them to their first playoff victory in nearly three decades. However, the Heisman-winner would eventually wear out his welcome in Northern Ohio, as the franchise unceremoniously dumped him in favor pursuing Deshaun Watson (how has that turned out?), trading Mayfield to Carolina where he would struggled mightily en route to being placed on waivers after just seven games. From there, he would land with the Rams, who were dealing with their own issues at QB, starting four contests and rehabbing his image. In free agency, nobody knew what to make of the 28-year-old, whose metrics and personality weren’t for everyone. Thankfully, he landed with the Buccaneers, who remarkably had no succession plan in place following Brady’s departure, which has developed into a marriage that appears to have a serious future in South Florida. Despite clear deficiencies along the Offensive Line and the ground game, (new Offensive Coordinator) Dave Canales has crafted an attack that plays to the strength of the personnel: a methodical, efficient passing game. Mayfield has completed 64.3% of his throws for an average of 237.9 yards on 6.29 net yards per attempt, with twenty-eight touchdowns in comparison to just ten interceptions, equating to a QBR of 54.4, all of which rank among his best marks in years. Taking care of the football has been the key, for the Bucs have committed just eighteen turnovers all season, the sixth fewest in the NFL, which has really proven to be their saving grace. It has also helped immensely that Mayfield has had premium pass-catching options at his disposal, with the ageless Mike Evans hauling in seventy-nine receptions for 1,255 yards and a league-best thirteen touchdowns, setting an NFL record with TEN consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns to begin a career. When we last saw these Bucs, they physically manhandled the reigning NFC Champion Eagles in a 32-9 affair in last Monday Night’s Wild card affair, avenging an earlier loss in which they struggled to find any semblance of rhythm. There would be no such issues in this one, folks, as the hosts rung up 426 total yards on twenty-three first downs, converting 6-of-14 third downs, and possessing the rock for a commanding 34:03. Tampa managed to flip the script on the ground, rushing for 119 yards on twenty-nine carries, which was enough to open up a wealth of opportunities downfield, which Mayfield exploited mercilessly for 337 yards and three touchdowns on 22-of-36 passing. All three touchdowns came 20+ yards downfield, including a 44-yard bomb to (journeyman Wideout) David Moore in the first quarter, followed a 56-yard strike to (Rookie Receiver) Trey Palmer in the third period, and later a 23-yarder to (veteran Wideout) Chris Godwin in the final stanza. Poetically, Bowles’ defense played a large role in earning the first playoff win of his coaching career, completely stifling Philadelphia’s flailing attack, shipping just 276 total yards on thirteen first downs, including a mere forty-two yards on fifteen attempts, and blanking them on a combined eleven attempts on third and fourth down. Furthermore, they sacked Jalen Hurts three times, logging a safety after the Quarterback was flagged for intentional grounding in the end zone, while stepping up to actually stuff a tush push on the goal line, which has been unheard of for two years now.

From a betting perspective, the Buccaneers may come into this Divisional Round showdown with a 10-8 record straight-up, but they have been far more rewarding against the spread, posting a 12-6 mark in that regard. Our opinion is that the oddsmakers never really had a handle on Tampa this season, particularly when you consider the exodus of veteran talent on the offensive side of the football during the offseason. Then again, you could make the argument that they didn’t know what to make of them last year either; the 2022 Bucs were among the worst in NFL history when it came to covering the spread, with a nauseating 4-13-1 mark (including the playoffs). We’ll call it the Tom Brady Effect, for this was a team that was favored on FOURTEEN occasions, including each of their first twelve outings, only to turn around and find themselves receiving points from the oddsmakers THIRTEEN times this season, including tonight. For those of you wondering, Bowles’ troops have really relished being underdogs with a 9-3 record as such, winning SIX of them outright, which if the most of any team in the league. Furthermore, the Bucs have covered four consecutive tilts as a road dog of 3.5-10.0 points, which is precisely the case this afternoon. Looking at this particular matchup, the road team has taken eight of the last nine encounters both straight-up and against the spread, with the underdogs winning half of them outright. When they crossed paths earlier this season, Tampa Bay took one on the proverbial chin in a 6-20 defeat at Raymond James Stadium on October 15th. Despite the fanfare around donning their classic cream sickle uniforms, the hosts failed to get much of anything going offensively, amassing just 251 total yards on thirteen first downs, rushing for a scant forty-six yards on sixteen carries, converting a dismal 2-of-12 third downs, and possessing the football for a mere 23:30. It was a rough day at the office for Mayfield, who completed 19-of-37 passes for 206 yards and an interception on the first play of their second drive of the afternoon. On the flipside, Bowles’ defense shipped 380 total yards though managed to limit the visitors to twenty points, while altogether nullifying one of the most dynamic rushing attacks in the NFL to the tune of forty yards on twenty-two attempts. Unfortunately, it was a different story against the pass, where they were shredded for 353 yards and a pair of long touchdowns, the first going for twenty-seven yards and the latter forty-five yards. Over the course of his career, Mayfield is 2-1 in the playoffs, completing 61.7% of his throws for an average of 268.0 yards on 6.84 net yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns opposed to only one interception. On the injury front, Mayfield has been dealing with ankle and rib soreness for a few weeks now, though as we saw last Monday, he is more than capable of playing through the pain. (Veteran Edge-Rusher) Shaquil Barrett (ankle) and (veteran Receiver) Chris Godwin (knee) are both listed as questionable after being limited throughout the practice week, though they are expected to participate in this trip to Ford Field. Looking ahead, if the Buccaneers manage to pull a second successive upset, then they will be on their way to their fifth NFC Championship Game in franchise history and their first since 2020, which saw them best the top-seeded Packers and go on win Super Bowl LV on their home field.

Meanwhile, has there been a better story in the NFL this season than that of the Lions (12-5, 1st in NFC North), who claimed their first division crown since 1991? Simply put, the resurrection of this long-starved franchise should serve as the blueprint for any team looking to pull themselves out of the doldrums, for their progress through these three years under the direction of (Head Coach) Dan Campbell and (General Manager) Brad Holmes has been undeniable. In their first campaign together, they went winless in their first eleven attempts en route to a fourth consecutive last-place finish. Year number two also started slowly, with five losses in their first six contests, though they would flip the proverbial script the rest of the way, with EIGHT victories in their final ten tilts, narrowly missing the playoffs as a result. The fact that Campbell had his charges playing so hard in a meaningless season finale at Lambeau Field which saw them eliminate Green Bay from playoff qualification was very telling, leaving many pundits proclaiming that this Pride was indeed ready for the big time in 2023. And it is with that said, that all of their hard work has paid off this season, as the Lions have won twelve games for the first time since 1991, which is coincidentally the last time that they won the NFC North and hosted a postseason affair. So, what is there to like about Detroit, you ask? As it turns out, A LOT. First and foremost, Campbell has found himself on the shortlist for Coach of the Year honors, even drawing interest from (his alma mater) Texas A&M in their search for a Head Coach. Furthermore, his two chief lieutenants, (Offensive Coordinator) Ben Johnson and (Defensive Coordinator) Aaron Glenn are two of the hottest names in the NFL’s current hiring cycle, with the former cultivating an attack that is arguably the most balanced in the league, ranking fifth in points scored (27.1), third in total offense (406.8), second in passing yards (270.9) and fifth in rushing yards (135.9). Campbell and Holmes have also done a tremendous job of drafting and developing talent, with a plethora of young players showing up in a big way this year, some even turning into stars. (Former Bears Tailback) David Montgomery and (Rookie RB) Jahmyr Gibbs came just fifty-five yards short of fielding TWO 1,000-yard rushers, with the latter emerging as a factor in the passing game too, with fifty-two receptions for 311 yards and a score, while (Rookie Tight End) Sam LaPorta set an NFL record with TEN receiving touchdowns in his first season as a professional. Furthermore, Sophomore Defensive End) Aidan Hutchinson is headed to the Pro-Bowl with 11.5 sacks, thirty-three QB hits, sixty-two pressures, while (young Safeties) Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch logged a combined seven interceptions, twenty-four defended passes, and a touchdown. Oh, and (third-year Receiver) Amon-Ra St. Brown posted career-highs in catches (119), receiving yards (1,515), and touchdowns (10). And then there is (veteran Quarterback) Jared Goff, who has served as the poster boy for this rebuild. Two years ago, Goff (pictured below alongside Campbell) was run out of Los Angeles in spectacular fashion, with the club that traded up to select him number one overall in 2015, packaging him along with TWO first-round picks in a deal with Detroit for the aforementioned Stafford. If that wasn’t bad enough, while he struggled in his new surroundings, he had to watch his former employers go on to win the Super Bowl that same year. Fastforward to the present and the 29-year-old has successfully rebuilt his once-promising career, completing 67.3% of his throws for an average of 269.1 yards on 6.89 net yards per attempt, with thirty touchdowns in comparison to twelve interceptions, equating to a QBR of 59.8. Earning their first playoff victory in over three decades, the Lions outlasted the Rams in a 24-23 thriller last Sunday, which was a deeply personal affair that saw Goff and Matthew Stafford encounter their former employers, including (Rams Head Coach) Sean McVay. Detroit clearly looked like the superior team in the first half, marching seventy-five yards downfield for touchdowns on three successive drives, while in large part limiting the visitors to ten points prior to halftime. However, Los Angeles would hit paydirt with a late score just before intermission to cut the deficit to four points, which began to shift momentum in their favor. Campbell’s troops could muster just three points in the second half, while the visiting side threatened continuously, though they were ultimately kept from breaching the end zone, settling for a pair of field goals. With that being said, Stafford would guide his side to the opponent’s 44-yard line, where a deep attempt to Puka Nacua was battered away by (veteran Cornerback) Cameron Sutton, putting the ball back in Goff’s hands to run out the clock. As such, the veteran came out of the two minute warning opting to throw the football instead of hand it off, finding St. Brown for a clutch 11-yard completion for a first down to effectively end the game. When it was all said and done, the Lions found a way to succeed even after the run game stalled, making plays downfield, while the defense continued to come up with timely stops. in what must have been a very cathartic afternoon, Goff completed an efficient 22-of-27 passes for 277 yards and a touchdown, while both Montgomery and Gibbs scored on the ground. St. Brown hauled in seven of nine targets for 110 yards, while LaPorta was responsible for the lone passing score. As for Hutchinson, he played a sizable role on the opposite side of the football, logging a pair of sacks, five QB hits, and as many pressures.

From a betting perspective, the Lions have been one of the most profitable teams in the NFL this season, owning a 13-5 record straight-up and a 12-6 mark against the spread, meaning that there has been a plethora of happy bettors in the city of Detroit and beyond for quite some time now. To give you an idea as to how much the tide has turned in favor of Campbell & Co, this is a team that was favored in FOURTEEN games this season (10-4 ATS), which is the most respect that the oddsmakers have shown them in, well, it really has been quite a while. Last weekend’s watershed victory over the Rams was seismic for a variety of reasons, though it should be noted that it also marks the first time since Thanksgiving that they had failed to cover an affair at Ford Field. This is significant, folks, for it continues a trend in which they have struggled to cover the spread in the playoffs, with just one win in that regard in their last five such games. Looking at this particular matchup, Campbell’s troops will be looking to break the trend of road teams winning in this series, which is something that they are very intimate with given that they did so when these sides met back in mid-October. This aforementioned 20-6 tilt at the Big Sombrero was a fairly dominant performance on the part of the Lions, who really leaned into their passing game as the hosts had no answers for Goff & Co downfield. 340 of their 380 total yards came on the right arm of the veteran, who completed 30-of-44 passes for 353 yards and two touchdowns, with ten different targets catching a ball. Chief among them was St. Brown, who hauled in twelve of fifteen targets for 124 yards and a 27-yard score, while (Sophomore speedster) Jameson Williams logged all but eight of his fifty-three yards on a third quarter touchdown to stretch the lead out of reach. Over the course of his career, Goff is 3-3 in the playoffs, with a completion percentage of 60.3% for an average of 225.3 yards on a very healthy 8.50 net yards per attempt, with five touchdowns opposed to two interceptions. On the injury front, the Lions are fairly healthy coming into the Divisional Round showdown at Ford Field, with the only questionable that have been listed being (Wideout) Khalif Raymond, who missed last weekend’s win with a sore knee, while LaPorta ended up playing in that win over the Rams after looking like he would be out of action due to a knee malady of his own. Looking ahead, if Detroit does in fact win for the second time in the same postseason, it will be the first time that they have done so since winning the NFL Championship back in 1957, setting up a date with either the 49ers or Packers next Sunday.

Projected Outcome: Lions 27, Buccaneers 17