NFL Playoffs: Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs

Reunions and rematches continue to define this Wild Card Weekend, with both applying to tonight’s showdown at frigid Arrowhead, where the slumping Miami Dolphins look to stop the bleeding against the reigning Super Bowl Champion, Kansas City Chiefs, who have designs on securing their third Lombardi Trophy in five years. What has been easily the most successful season for the Dolphins (11-6, 2nd in AFC East) in fifteen years has unraveled before their eyes, with their lofty standing at the top of the AFC dissipating over the course of less than a month. Yes, Miami has won eleven games, which is their most in a campaign since 2008. Yes, they have been the most prolific offensive side in the NFL this season, ranking first in total yards (412.2), passing yards (276.4), rushing touchdowns (27), and yards per carry (5.1). A more balanced approach (135.8 rushing yards) coupled with a clean bill of health for (fourth-year Quarterback) Tua Tagovailoa has really unlocked the lofty potential of this unit, with the young QB leading the league in passing yards (4,624). It certainly helps that (Head Coach) Mike McDaniel is one of the most creative play-callers in the league, utilizing a wealth of pre-snap motion in an attempt to create confusion for opposing defenses, with has been regularly exploited given the ridiculous speed that they possess at the skill positions. It is one thing to have one vertical threat on the field, but the Dolphins are capable of fielding up to FOUR of them on any given play. We’re not talking about your average, run-of-the-mill burners here, folks, for this is an attack that features arguably the four fastest players at their respective positions. (Tailbacks) Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane are home-run threats every time they touch the pigskin, with the former erupting for a franchise-record TWENTY-ONE total touchdowns (in fifteen games), while the latter has made just ten appearances during his rookie campaign, though has nonetheless averaged an explosive 7.8 yards per carry and scored ELEVEN touchdowns. With that being said, chief among this group is (All-Pro Receiver) Tyreek Hill, who is unquestionably the premier downfield weapon in the NFL. Sure, he was sensational during his time in Kansas City, but Hill (pictured below) has broken through his limits since being traded to South Beach. Last year, the 29-year-old posted career-highs in receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,710), with the 4-time All-Pro hauling in an identical 119 catches for an NFL-best 1,799 yards and twelve scores. Simply put, his presence alone has proven enough to alter coverages and drag defenders to him, which routinely opens space for his teammates to exploit. Now for the bad news, folks, for this is a team that has enjoyed the bulk of their success against weaker competition, with all but ONE of their eleven victories coming against teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs. In fact, their opposition in those ten wins carries a cumulative win percentage of just .346, while their only victory against a winning team came in a 22-20 triumph over the Cowboys on Christmas Eve. Apart from a puzzling 27-28 upset at the hands of the Titans, their other five losses have come against the Bills, Eagles, Chiefs, and most recently the Ravens, carrying a stellar combined win percentage of .676. As such, the narrative that McDaniel & Co can’t beat good teams has festered throughout the season, which doesn’t bode well for the playoffs given that, well, the field is comprised exclusively of GOOD teams. Just three weeks ago, they were in control of their destiny as the number one seed in the AFC, only to now find themselves on the road for the duration of the playoffs… Their fate was cemented with last Sunday night’s finale at home against the Bills, who completed the season sweep with a 21-14 victory at Hard Rock Stadium. It certainly seemed as if the hosts would get the better of their division rival, particularly given the mistakes that they made in the first half; Buffalo was intercepted on each of their first two drives, though Miami simply couldn’t put them away, clinging to a 14-7 advantage at intermission. Unfortunately, the second half could only be described as a failure to launch for the home side, who could amass just forty-seven yards of offense, with four consecutive punts and an interception of Tagovailoa ending the affair altogether. When it was all said and done, the ‘Fins were held to a season-low 275 total yards on just sixteen first downs, converting 4-of-10 third downs and possessing the football for only 21:53 of game clock. Without the services of (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Jaylen Waddle and Mostert, Tagovailoa was left to complete 17-of-27 passes for a pedestrian 173 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions, though he did find Hill for a short score just before halftime. The diminutive speedster hauled in seven receptions on thirteen targets for eighty-two yards, though refrained from making any big plays deep downfield. For the second time this season, (Defensive Coordinator) Vic Fangio’s unit was torched by the Bills, shipping 473 total yards of offense. The play of the defense has been troubling for a month now, as mounting injuries (which we will cover in more detail shortly) have depleted their ranks; apart from pitching a shutout against the lowly Jets, the Dolphins have been torched for 31.2 points and 426.5 total yards in four of their last five games.

From a betting perspective, the Dolphins were one of the most rewarding teams in the NFL this season, posting an 11-6 record straight-up and a 10-7 mark against the spread. With that being said, they have failed to cover each of their last two games to close out the campaign, standing as the first and only time that they have failed to cover back-to-back contests. Interestingly, both of these defeats came as an underdog, which has been a telltale sign for those wagering upon them. Of Miami’s seven losses against the spread, four of them have come when receiving points from the oddsmakers, with a dismal overall ledger as a dog (1-4 ATS). Furthermore, this is a team that has failed to cover four consecutive games when receiving points, while doing the same in their last four road games against opponents above .500. With that being said, they have shown a talent for bouncing back after a sluggish offensive performance, posting an 8-1 record against the spread in their last nine outings after being held below fifteen points. Looking at this particular matchup, the ‘Fins have seen the series’ balance fall out of their favor of late, losing each of the last four encounters both straight-up (1-3 ATS), including their most recent, a 14-21 affair in Frankfurt, Germany last November. McDaniel’s high-powered attack was shut out in the first half where they were relegated to a mere 100 total yards including five punts and a sensational fumble from Hill, who was stood up and stripped of the football, with the Chiefs returning the pigskin to the house. The Dolphins would draw within seven points in the second half on the strength of a 31-yard touchdown from Tagovailoa to (young Receiver) Cedrick Wilson followed by a 13-yard scamper courtesy of Mostert, though that would be it as their two possessions in the fourth quarter netted zero points. Tagovailoa managed to drive Miami all the way to their opponent’s 31-yard line, only to fumble the final snap for a loss of thirteen yards. In the end, they were limited below 300 yards of total offense for the first time all season, with the league’s leading passer held to 193 yards on 21-of-34 attempts. As for Hill, he was held in check in his first showdown with his former employers, hauling in eight passes for sixty-two yards, as that lost fumble proved to be the difference in the affair. On the injury front, the losses are mounting on South Beach, with a number of key defenders out of action for this trip to Arrowhead; (Edge-Rushers) Bradley Chubb (ACL) and Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) are out for however long their postseason run lasts, while (Linebackers) Andrew van Ginkel (foot) and Jerome Baker (wrist), along with (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Xavien Howard (foot) are all expected to miss this Wild Card clash. Furthermore, (Offensive Linemen) Connor Williams (knee) and Isaiah Wynn (quadriceps) have landed on injured reserve with respective ailments, while Mostert and Waddle are both officially questionable after being held out of the last two tilts with lower leg ailments. Looking ahead, should McDaniel & Co move on to the next round, they will in all likelihood be heading to Baltimore for a rematch with the Ravens (provided Buffalo handles their business against Pittsburgh), who hammered them in a 19-56 rout two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, there has been plenty of blood in the water in Kansas City (11-6, 1st in AFC West) as well, though the difference between their struggles and those of their opponent tonight is that there thankfully wasn’t anyone in the division strong enough to challenge them. Indeed, despite appearing to be well below the level that earned them their third Lombardi Trophy last February, the Chiefs nonetheless managed to secure their EIGHTH consecutive AFC West crown, the most consecutive first place finishes in the history of the division. However, we would be well to warn you that this is not the same team that rallied back to defeat the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, for if they found themselves in another division, they may have missed the postseason altogether. So, what in the name of Christian Okoye has been going on in Arrowhead, you ask? Well, like many great teams, this is a group that has become a victim of their own success, succumbing to the attrition of free agency and other transactions. Sure, (Head Coach) Andy Reid and (General Manager) Brett Veach managed to avoid this pitfall last season despite dealing away the aforementioned Hill in what was equal parts a blockbuster trade and a salary dump for the club. They did a stellar job in replenishing their ranks, bringing in veteran pass-catchers such as JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, along with a host of draft picks that turned into young playmakers on the defensive side of the football. These moves worked out beautifully, with the offense ranking first in a litany of categories and (perennial Pro-Bowler) Patrick Mahomes turning in arguably the finest campaign of his career (which is really saying something) en route to earning his second MVP award. This past Spring saw Smith-Schuster leave for greener pastures, while the Offensive Line underwent sizeable changes, what with the additions of (veteran Tackles) Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith to man the flanks. While the defense has remained stellar, the offense has regressed mightily, ranking fifteenth in points scored (21.8), the worst since Mahomes (pictured below) was drafted back in 2018. Furthermore, the vertical passing game has all but disappeared (6.3 net yards per attempt) due in large part to an uninspiring Receiving Corps that has struggled to get open and catch the damn football. Seriously, folks, that last bit has been the topic of discussion all season, with the Chiefs dropping a whopping THIRTY-NINE passes thrown by Mahomes, including twenty-six from Receivers, which has driven the 28-year-old and just about everyone in the state of Missouri crazy. It also certainly hasn’t helped that they have come in the biggest games: (veteran Wideout) Kadarius Toney’s THREE drops were all anyone could talk about following their season-opening loss to the Lions, while Valdes-Scantling’s whiff on the would-be game-winner against the Eagles was stunning. Last season, Mahomes led the NFL with forty-one touchdowns, only to toss twenty-seven of them this year, with this suddenly inefficient attack committing twenty-eight turnovers (23rd Overall), equating to a disastrous -11 differential, while hitting paydirt in the red zone less frequently with a 54.1% success rate (16th Overall). This team’s saving grace proved to be a very soft schedule to close the regular season, with zero opponents above .500 in their last four games, including the Patriots, Raiders, Bengals, and Chargers. Needless to say, this was hardly a murderer’s row, what with two of them having fired their Head Coach or in the case of Cincinnati and Los Angeles, lost a Pro-Bowl Quarterback for the season due to injury. Even with that said, they were far from dominant against either the pats or cats, while offering up the king of all stinkers in a 14-20 loss at home to Las Vegas on Christmas Day. In a game in which the visitors failed to complete a single pass in the second half, the hosts saw a pair of Mahomes turnovers returned for touchdowns. Thankfully, Reid’s troops handled their business against the Bengals in a 25-17 affair, so that they could rest who they wanted to rest in last weekend’s finale at the Chargers, which ended in a narrow 13-12 victory.

From a betting perspective, the Chiefs may be 11-6 straight-up this season, but they have been less-rewarding against the spread, where they have posted a 9-7-1 mark. After getting off to a healthy 7-4 start, they failed to cover four consecutive games (0-3-1 ATS) before ending the regular season with back-to-back wins/covers. The problem has been this: given their reputation, Kansas City has often found themselves as sizeable favorites, with this year being no different as eight games saw them favored by at least seven points. Their record in such contests is 4-3-1, though given their sudden mortality in 2023, we feel the oddsmakers had a difficult time adjusting to them. With that being said, they are favored by four points tonight, which is a slightly higher spread than when these teams met back on November 5th. When favored by less than seven points, Reid’s troops are 7-8 against the spread dating back to last season. Coincidentally, the only time that this team has been favored by exactly four points during that span was back in September on opening night, when a slew of drops from the Receiving Corps ensured defeat at the hands of Detroit. Looking at this particular matchup, the Chiefs have owned this series of late, winning each of the last four encounters (3-1 ATS), including that aforementioned 21-14 battle in Germany. Kansas City grabbed ahold of this tilt from the word go, marching seventy-five yards downfield on the opening possession of the afternoon, culminating in an 11-yard strike from Mahomes to (Rookie Receiver) Rashee Rice. They would punt on their next three drives, before adding another touchdown at the end of a marathon series of plays that bled over eight minutes off the clock, with Mahomes finding (veteran tailback) Jerick McKinnon for a 17-yard score. Then, as the Dolphins set up shop following the kickoff, the aforementioned Hill was stood up and stripped of the football behind the line of scrimmage by (Cornerback) Trent McDuffie, with (fellow Corner) Mike Edwards recovering the ball and pitching it to (young Safety) Bryan Cook, who promptly took it back to the house for a commanding 21-0 lead at halftime. That would be all the scoring that Reid & Co would accomplish, as (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo’s troops really did a number on the league’s most prolific offense, relinquishing just fourteen points, 292 total yards, including a mere 193 through the air, and 3-of-12 on third down. Furthermore, they sacked Tagovailoa three times, hit him on six occasions, and racked up eleven pressures along the way. For his trouble, Mahomes completed a workmanlike 20-of-30 passes for just 185 yards and those two touchdowns, with (Sophomore Tailback) Isiah Pacheco rushing for sixty-six yards on sixteen carries, while nine different players caught a pass from the reigning MVP, though none surpassing forty yards. On the injury front, Reid rested many of his key figures in last weekend’s win over the Chargers, so we can in all likelihood expect to see the likes of (veteran Cornerback) L’Jarius Sneed (calf), (veteran Tackle) Donovan Smith (neck), (All-Pro Tight End) Travis Kelce (neck), and Rice (hamstring), who were all shelved for that affair. With that being said, both McKinnon and Cook are out of action for tonight’s Wild Card clash, with the former expected to miss this postseason run due to a strained hamstring, while the latter is working his way back from a sprained ankle that forced him to injured reserve. Looking ahead, depending on the outcomes in Houston and Orchard Park, the Chiefs could be on the road for a meeting with either the top-seeded Ravens or the Bills next weekend or could be home for one more week against the Texans or Browns.

Projected Outcome: Dolphins 24, Chiefs 20