NFL Playoffs: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills

Super Wild Card Weekend rages on into Sunday afternoon, as resiliency is the key word in the showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, despite it looking like neither franchise would be in this position a few weeks ago. Of the two, the Steelers (10-7, 3rd in AFC North) being a part of this playoff field is certainly the more surprising, particularly given how dead in the water they looked a month ago; they had just fallen to 7-7 after losing their third game in four outings, thanks in large part to a rudderless offense that continued to misfire despite a very uncharacteristic change at Offensive Coordinator. Indeed, Pittsburgh also lost (Sophomore Quarterback) Kenny Pickett during that stretch as well, first turning to (journeyman) Mitch Trubisky, which proved to be an unmitigated disaster, before handing the reins over to (longtime Backup) Mason Rudolph. Fortunately for everyone involved, the third QB to start for the Black & Yellow proved to be the charm, as Rudolph has helped ignite a stagnant passing game just enough for (Head Coach) Mike Tomlin & Co to take advantage of a soft close to the schedule to advance to the postseason. During that aforementioned 5-game swoon, Tomlin fired embattled (former OC) Matt Canada and promoted the tandem of (Running Backs Coach) Eddie Faulkner and (QB Coach) Mike Sullivan to playcalling duties, though change did not have the desired effects; the Steelers failed to score more than eighteen points in five consecutive games, averaging a meager 293.4 total yards, including just 171.2 passing yards with a turnover differential of -3. Following a 13-30 loss at Indianapolis in which Trubisky was intercepted twice, Tomlin (pictured below) turned to Rudolph, the longest-tenured passer on the roster, with the 28-year-old repaying the skipper in kind. Over the final three games, all of which have been victories, the first of two featuring back-to-back 30-point performances, Rudolph completed an efficient 74.6% of his passes for an average of 238.7 yards on a healthy 9.63 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns opposed to zero interceptions. Big plays have inexplicably become his calling card, with the Oklahoma State product pushing the football downfield, resuscitating (Sophomore Wideout) George Pickens, who had been rather vocal about being underutilized for months. In wins over the Bengals and Seahawks, Pickens exploded for 326 yards and two touchdowns on eleven catches, which equates to a whopping 29.6 yards per reception! Of course, this passing expansion has coincided with the rebirth of the ground game, as Faulkner and Sullivans have transitioned to a more physical, man-blocking approach in the trenches, which has opened holes with greater frequency, churning out 156.7 rushing yards on 38.3 carries, parlaying to 4.1 yards per carry. With all that being said, there is a very real argument to be made that these Steelers may be the worst 10-win team in NFL history, for if not for an absolute gift from their bitter rivals, the Ravens, in last weekend’s 17-10 victory in Baltimore, you wouldn’t even be reading this particular game preview. On the whole of the campaign, Pittsburgh was outscored (-20 points) and outgained (-643 total yards), though they managed to compensate for those shortcomings by posting one of the healthiest turnover margins in the league this season (+11), in large part to committing the second-fewest turnovers (16). Even with that said, they came into last Saturday’s trip to M&T Bank Stadium needing a victory and a lot of help in order to get into the playoffs, and in a surprising turn of fate, the first two dropped in their favor as the Ravens opted to sit just about every major offensive player, including (MVP frontrunner) Lamar Jackson. Tied at 7-7 heading into the fourth quarter, Rudolph found (veteran Wideout) Diontae Johnson for a 71-yard touchdown to break the deadlock, followed by a 25-yard field goal courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Chris Boswell to make it 17-7 with just over three minutes left to play. The hosts would drive down into the red zone, though were ultimately forced to settle for a short field goal to set up the ensuing onside kick, though that attempt would fall short as the visitors recovered the football. In persistent wind and rain, neither team offered much offensively with neither managing to cross the 300-yard threshold, though it was Tomlin’s troops who made the big plays when needed, rushing for 155 yards on thirty-nine carries en route to possessing the ball for a commanding 34:54. Rudolph completed an efficient 18-of-20 passes for 152 yards and that touchdown to Johnson, who finished eighty-nine yards on four receptions, while (young Tailback) Najee Harris rushed for 112 yards and a score of his own on twenty-six carries, with (fellow Tailback) Jaylen Warren amassing sixty yards from scrimmage on fourteen touches.

From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Steelers, who finished the regular season 10-7 both straight-up and against the spread. In fact, this is a team that didn’t thread the proverbial needle at all this year, so when they won, they covered, and when they lost, the did so versus the spread as well. Despite looking dead in the water after three consecutive defeats on each front, Pittsburgh took advantage of a largely fortuitous schedule to win and cover each of their last three contests, to return to the postseason as an immaculate qualifier. Today’s Wild Card venture marks the eleventh time in seventeen years that Tomlin has guided his troops to the playoffs, where he owns an 8-9 record straight-up (.471) and 7-10 against the spread (.411), though it should be noted that he hasn’t won such a contest since 2016 (0-4 ATS). Furthermore, they are 2-5 in that latter regard as an underdog (.285), which is the case this afternoon. Looking at this particular matchup, these classic franchises have crossed paths in each of the last four seasons, with the Steelers taking just one of them, a 23-16 upset back in the 2021 Opener at Orchard Park. Of course, that one kicked off what would be the swan song for (legendary Quarterback) Ben Roethlisberger, thanks in large part to a blocked punt returned to the house that completely flipped the affair on its axis. However, a more accurate sample could be found in last Fall’s 3-38 drubbing in Western New York, in which the visitors were throttled during a 0-21 second quarter en route to being outgained 364-552 despite possessing the football for 36:08. It was Pickett making the first start of his career and receiving a formal welcome to the NFL from the reigning AFC East Champions, who was 34-of-52 passing for 327 yards and an interception, with three sacks, seven hits, and eight pressures. The aforementioned Pickens hauled in six receptions for a team-high eighty-three yards, while Warren amassed sixty-three yards from scrimmage on just nine touches. Pickett will likely be active for this afternoon’s Wild Card affair having recovered from a high ankle sprain that required surgery back in late November, though will be serving as Rudolph’s backup once more. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of (2021 Defensive Player of the Year) T.J. Watt, who suffered a sprained MCL in last weekend’s over the Ravens. The 6-time Pro-Bowler figures to be sorely missed in this one, folks, given that he has paced the league in sacks in three of the last four seasons, including nineteen this year. Simply put, this is a massive loss for Tomlin & Co, who are a damning 1-9 in games that he has missed since 2020. Fortunately, (Pro-Bowl Defensive Back) Minkah Fitzpatrick, who missed the final three weeks of the campaign with an ailing knee of his own, should be good to go for this trip to Buffalo. Looking ahead, an upset of the Bills would be immense, though the road to glory would only get harder for these Steelers, for as the lowest seed in the AFC, any win would guarantee a third meeting with the Ravens, where they would once again be considerable underdogs despite sweeping their two regular season meetings.

Meanwhile, resilience also describes the Bills (11-6, 1st in AFC East), who after a particularly dreadful midseason swoon, circled the proverbial wagons and went on to win their final five games en route to capturing their fourth consecutive division crown. Like their opponent this afternoon, it appeared that Buffalo was dead in the water about a month ago; losers of five out of eight games, (Head Coach) Sean McDermott & Co entered their bye week at a middling 6-6 thanks to a stretch in which they committed FIFTEEN turnovers (-5 differential), prompting the skipper to take a page from his former James Madison classmate and fire his Offensive Coordinator, replacing Ken Dorsey with (QB Coach) Joe Brady. With a tough remaining schedule that featured trips to Kansas City and Miami bookending a date with Dallas, the deck was stacked against this team, who have rose to the occasion and built quite a bit of momentum for themselves in the process. So, what in the name of Jim Kelly has happened in Orchard Park, you ask? Well, the shift to Brady as offensive playcaller has seen the offense as whole become more balanced, rushing for 148.8 yards on thirty-six carries per game, which has helped allow them to generally dominate time of possession, with over thirty-two minutes of the offense being on the field in four of their last five outings. This change has also helped the unit clean up some of the many mistakes that they had been making this season, with eight of them committed during this stretch, translating to a +1 margin along the way. On the whole of the campaign, the Bills totaled TWENTY-EIGHT turnovers (23rd Overall), due in large part to the aggressive play of (veteran Quarterback) Josh Allen, who has thrown a career-high EIGHTEEN interceptions, the fifth-most in the league. For four years now, Allen (pictured below) has been one of the best in the NFL, averaging a staggering 4,385.0 total yards per game with 173 passing and rushing touchdowns, by far and away the most in the league during that period. However, if there is one drawback it is that such statistical success has also come with a good deal of risk, for no player has committed more turnovers between 2020 and 2023 than the 27-year-old, who has tossed fifty-seven interceptions and lost twenty-three fumbles. This season, he has accounted for FORTY-FOUR touchdowns (including a career-high 15 rushing scores) in comparison to TWENTY-ONE turnovers, with eleven of them coming within that aforementioned midseason swoon. Fortunately, McDermott’s defense has been nothing short of opportunistic themselves, offsetting the offense’s errors with THIRTY takeaways, the third-most in the league this season. In fact, this is a unit that forced turnovers in bunches, claiming multiple takeaways in eight different games, owning a stellar 7-2 record in such games. This was the case in last weekend’s finale on South Beach, in which Buffalo stormed into Hard Rock Stadium and swept the season series with the Dolphins, earning a playoff spot and a division title all in one fell swoop. Indeed, that 21-14 affair served as a microcosm for their campaign, as Allen tossed two reckless interceptions in the first quarter, only to slowly work their way back into the contest and pull ahead late. Ironically, this tilt shifted on its axis not by a play made by the offense or defense, but on special teams, where (veteran Wideout) Deonte Harty fielded a 58-yard punt early in the fourth quarter and proceeded to return it ninety-six yards to the house, tying the score at 14-14. Then, on the very next possession, the visitors marched seventy-four yards downfield in eight plays, culminating short passing score from Allen to (veteran Tight End) Dawson Knox. The hosts would threaten one last time, though Buffalo intercepted Tua Tagovailoa for the second time, ending the threat and completing their quest to get back to the playoffs. When it was all said and done, the Bills outgained the ‘Fins by a staggering 198 total yards, led by Allen who completed 30-of-38 passes for 359 yards and rushed for another sixty-seven yards, including a crucial 15-yard run on a third-and-thirteen deep in their own territory to continue bleeding the clock. He tossed two touchdowns, but was also intercepted twice to boot, while losing a fumble and failing to convert on fourth down two times as well. However, they possessed the football for a commanding 38:07, while more or less squatting on Miami’s prolific attack, which was without a number of their own playmakers.

From a betting perspective, the Bills have proven to be one of the great mysteries of this season, posting an 11-6 record straight-up despite being one of the least-rewarding teams against the spread with a 7-10 mark. Buffalo has won but failed to cover FOUR games this year, including two of their last three outings, which highlights the disconnect between the team that they are versus the group that they are perceived to be. Could this be the case of living off one’s reputation? McDermott’s troops have been favored in all but THREE of their contests this Fall, going 6-8 versus the spread along the way. Furthermore, EIGHT of those tilts have come as favorites of at least 7.5 points, covering just two of them along the way, including an 0-4 mark against the spread when that number has reached double-digits, which is obviously the case today. With that being said, this is a team that has generally played to the level of their competition, covering three of their last four encounters with opponents above .500 (3-0-1 ATS). Looking at this particular matchup, the Bills have really owned this series of late, winning and covering three of the last four meetings since 2019, which is relevant given that sample size covers the partnership between McDermott and Allen. When they crossed paths last Fall, Buffalo DESTROYED Pittsburgh in that aforementioned 38-3 blowout in Orchard Park, which saw the hosts outscore the visiting side 31-3 in the first half alone. Allen & Co amassed 552 yards of total offense with the veteran Quarterback accounting for 466 of that figure, completing 20-of-31 passes for four touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another forty-two yards on just five carries despite sitting for the bulk of the fourth quarter. (Wideouts) Stefon Diggs and Gaberiel Davis each cracked the 100-yard threshold, with the former reeling in eight catches on eleven targets for 102 yards and a touchdown, while the latter needed just three receptions to post 171 yards and two scores of his own. Furthermore, Shakir got into the act too, with three balls for seventy-five yards and another touchdown. As you can imagine, big plays were the difference in this one, as Allen terrorized the Steel Curtain downfield, with SEVEN passes completed for 20+ yards, including a 98-yard rocket to Davis to open their ledger in the first period. Over the course of his career, Allen is 3-1 in four encounters with Pittsburgh, completing 58.0% of his throws for an average of 267.8 yards on 6.92 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while rushing for another 35.5 yards and a touchdown to boot. On the injury front, we have known that the defense has been hurting for a while now, with (Cornerback) Tre’Davious White (Achilles), (Linebacker) Matt Milano (leg), and (Defensive Tackle) Harrison Phillips (wrist) all out for the duration, though there a number of other situations to keep an eye on. (Defensive Backs) Rasul Douglas (knee) and Taylor Rapp (calf) both suffered knocks in last weekend’s triumph at Miami, with the same said on the opposite side of the football with (Left Tackle) Dion Dawkins (hand) and the aforementioned Davis (knee) all listed as questionable to participate in this Wild Card clash. Looking ahead, as the highest-seed team playing this weekend, Buffalo will in turn host the highest-remaining seed in next weekend’s division round, which could be Kansas City, Houston, or Cleveland depending on the outcome of their respective contests.

Projected Outcome: Bills 31, Steelers 13