NFL Playoffs: Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

Super Wild Card Weekend transitions over to the NFC Playoffs, where we continue the theme of reunions and rematches, as the Dallas Cowboys look forward to what they hope will be a lengthy postseason run as they play host to the young Green Bay Packers, who could very well be primed for an upset. My, oh my, what a difference a year has made for the Packers (9-8, 2nd in NFC North), who this time last season saw their playoff hopes crumble into dust on their home field, which ultimately led to the dramatic departure of (longtime Quarterback) Aaron Rodgers, finally thrusting the franchise into the future. As a result, Green Bay entered this campaign as very much an unknown, for it was difficult to discern just how much of their success over the previous four seasons was due to the sublime play of their former QB. Under the proverbial microscope were two figures: (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur and (fourth year QB) Jordan Love. The former had led the Pack to a stellar 47-19 (.712) record from 2019-2022, including three division titles/playoff appearances and a pair of trips to the NFC Championship Game, while the latter had lived largely within Rodgers’ shadow, attempting just eighty-three passes in three seasons despite being selected twenty-sixth overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. Could LaFleur adjust without Rodgers pulling the trigger? Would Love (pictured below) be worth the wait? Well, with the regular season now in the books, the answer to both questions is YES. The offense has seen a much more balanced approach than in recent years, ranking twelfth in scoring (22.5), eleventh in total yards (359.7), twelfth in passing (247.6) and fifteenth in rushing (112.1), all the while converting a healthy 47.1% of their third downs (5th Overall) and committing the sixth-fewest turnovers in the league (18). LaFleur and his coaching staff have also done a tremendous job of developing the young talent on hand, with a different fresh face making plays each week. (Sophomore Wideout) Romeo Doubs emerged as a growing weapon last season and has thus been joined by the likes of (Rookie Receivers) Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks, who have combined for 103 receptions, 1,374 yards, and twelve touchdowns, with Reed matching Doubs for the team lead in receiving scores (8). Furthermore, (young Tight Ends) Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft have been ever present, with each pass-catcher topping thirty catches, 350 yards and a score. Of course, this growth around the Quarterback has been possible in large part due to the growth of Love, who has exceeded the short-term expectations in succeeding Rodgers. Granted, we’ll have to wait and see if he can lead Green Bay to a Lombardi Trophy as his predecessor did, though the initial results have been promising. The 25-year-old has been very efficient in his first season as the starter, completing 64.2% of his throws for an average of 244.6 yards per game on 6.43 net yards per attempt, with thirty-two touchdowns in comparison to eleven interceptions, equating to a QBR of 62.0. To put that into perspective, each of those figures are improvements over what Rodgers produced in 2022. Credit to both LaFleur and Love for the decision-making of the latter, which was a serious concern when he was coming out of Utah State, though it is clear that three years on the sideline has helped iron out of the proverbial wrinkles. Winners of six of their final eight games, the Packers ended the regular season in the same fashion that they began it, by besting the Bears in a 17-9 affair to book their passage to the playoffs. This one wasn’t quite as high scoring as their previous affair, though Green Bay nonetheless got the job done, scoring touchdowns where their bitter rivals could only offer field goals, as Love found Wicks for two scores. That would be all that the hosts needed, outgaining the visiting side 432-192 in total yards, 124-75 via the run, while converting 7-of-10 third downs. Love completed 27-of-32 passes for 316 yards and those two touchdowns to Wicks, who totaled sixty-one yards on six catches, while Reed hauled in four receptions for a team-high 112 yards. Oh, and then there was (veteran Tailback) Aaron Jones, who missed much of the season due to a nagging hamstring strain, rushing for 111 yards on twenty-two carries. Defensively, five different players logged a sack, combining for six hits of the passer and seven pressures.

From a betting perspective, what you see is just about what you get with the Packers, who enter this postseason 9-8 both straight-up and against the spread, with all but two of their outings culminating in identical outcomes. Simply put, when they win, they generally cover, and when they lose, they usually do so against the spread as well. Winners of seven of their last ten contests, Green Bay has covered six of those tilts along the way, including last weekend’s clincher over Chicago (-2.5). Remarkably, this evening’s trip to Arlington marks only the second time this season in which they have been receiving seven or more points from the oddsmakers, with the only other instance being a 29-22 outright upset of the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, in which they were 8.5-point underdogs. LaFleur’s troops have been dogs on many occasions this year, which has suited them just fine in posting a 7-5 mark against the spread in such affairs. Speaking of the skipper, the Pack are 2-3 in the playoffs under his leadership, including an identical record against the spread. With that being said, Wild Card Weekend has oftentimes been good to Green Bay, who have won and covered FIVE consecutive contests in the first round of the postseason. Looking at this particular matchup, these classic franchises have met eight times over the last decade, with the Packers taking all but one of them (6-1 ATS), though there is the rather small caveat that each of those clashes featured the aforementioned Rodgers under center for the cheeseheads. Their most recent encounter occurred last season, a wild 31-28 overtime affair from Lambeau Field in which the world became acquainted with (Sophomore Receiver) Christian Watson, who erupted for 107 yards and THREE touchdowns on four receptions. The hosts trailed 14-28 late in the third quarter before Rodgers linked up with the then-rookie Wideout for a pair of touchdowns to push the game past regulation, where (former Kicker) Mason Crosby drilled the game-winner from twenty-eight yards out. Both teams logged well over 400 yards of total offense, though the key was Green Bay’s ability to keep Dallas honest by running the football, rushing for 207 yards and a score on thirty-nine carries en route to possessing the rock for 35:55 of game time. Of course, Love was still entrenched as Rodgers’ backup at that point, which makes this evening’s tilt at AT&T Stadium his first formal affair with the Cowboys. On the injury front, (veteran Tailback) A.J. Dillon was held out of last weekend’s win over the Bears due to thumb and neck maladies, while Watson also missed out thanks to lingering hamstring soreness, though the former is listed as doubtful to participate in this Wild Card showdown, while the latter has been branded as questionable. (Veteran Cornerback) Jaire Alexander is in the same boat, having been held out of practice on Friday due to shoulder and ankle soreness, though he is expected to take the field. Looking ahead, if the Packers were to pull the upset, then they will book their trip to the divisional round where the top-seeded 49ers will be waiting, setting up yet another clash of classic franchises with plenty of postseason history.

Meanwhile, after yet another 12-win campaign, the REAL season begins for the Cowboys (12-5, 1st in NFC East), who are desperate to recapture the glory of the 1990s. By now we are all well-acquainted with their story: since winning Super Bowl XXX (no pun intended) twenty-eight years ago, this is a franchise that has advanced to the playoffs on thirteen occasions, though have failed to advance to even an NFC Championship Game. Hell, in the last two seasons alone, we’ve seen them run roughshod through portions of the regular season only to come up short in the postseason, oftentimes due to self-inflicted wounds and a serious lack of discipline. As a result, mountains of pressure have been heaped upon the broad shoulders of (Head Coach) Mike McCarthy, who could very well be facing a mandate of Super Bowl or bust in these coming weeks. McCarthy (pictured below) shook things up following a second straight defeat to the 49ers in the divisional round, firing (longtime Offensive Coordinator) Kellen Moore in favor of calling plays himself, which is a role that he is no stranger to, having performed that task throughout the bulk of his coaching career. However, the 60-year-old hasn’t done so since he was fired by none other than the Packers five years ago, and the good folks in Green Bay would likely contend that he wasn’t very good at it towards the end of his tenure there. With that being said, Dallas would find their stride with the big fella calling the shots, ranking first in points scored (29.9) and fifth in total offense (387.0), along with third in passing yards (274.1), sixth in net yards per attempt (6.7), fourteenth in rushing yards (112.9), and twentieth in yards per carry (4.1). Furthermore, they converted a healthy 48.3% of their third downs (2nd Overall) and would overcome their early troubles in the red zone to finish with a middling 56.3% success rate (14th Overall). (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Dak Prescott would bounce back from an uneven campaign in which he led the NFL in interceptions (15), this time pacing the league in passing touchdowns (36), while completing a career-best 69.1% of his passes for 4,516 yards on 6.77 net yards per attempt, with just nine interceptions, equating to a QBR of 72.6, over twelve points higher than that of last season. Seriously, Prescott has become a legitimate MVP candidate under McCarthy’s watch, which is a boon to the skipper’s case to remain in his post. Furthermore, (fourth year Wideout) CeeDee Lamb has developed into an All-Pro performer, leading the NFL with 135 receptions for 1,749 yards and a dozen touchdowns. So, with that in mind, we have to ask the question: why is this guy on the proverbial hot seat? Well, while a third straight premature playoff exit carries its own weight, there are other factors at play here, folks. First, there are a plethora of Head Coach openings around the league (7 in total), creating a wealth of quality candidates that typically have been off-limits, including the likes of (former Patriots HC) Bill Belichick and (former Alabama HC) Nick Saban. Would it really be out of character for (longtime Owner) Jerry Jones to pursue such a profile if they were available? Again, Jones, 81-years old, is desperate to win a fourth Super Bowl, and if he felt that he had a better chance with Belichick (6 Super Bowl titles from 2001 to 2018) or Saban (7 National Titles from 2003 to 2020) steering the ship, then he could very well hire either candidate. Remember, (current Defensive Coordinator) Dan Quinn, who has done an excellent job in rebuilding the defense into the most opportunistic unit in the NFL over the last three years, is once again in high demand and could very well land with one of these franchises looking for new leadership, particularly Seattle, where he directed their Legion of Boom defense back in the early 2010s. Simply put, McCarthy could end up being a victim of circumstance, though the solution to his murky future is to keep winning, which is what his troops did in the regular season finale at Washington, where they hammered the Commanders in a 38-10 victory to secure the division crown and the second seed in the NFC. Dallas actually trailed 7-10 midway through the second quarter before putting their foot on the gas pedal, running off THIRTY-ONE unanswered points to end the day, including back-to-back touchdowns from Prescott to Lamb. In the end, this was domination by the visiting side, who outgained the hosts 440-180 in total yards, with thirty-one first downs opposed to twelve, 131-50 in rushing yards, and a time of possession of 33:55. Prescott completed a surgical 31-of-36 passes for 279 yards, four touchdowns and an interception, while Lamb hauled in all thirteen of his targets for ninety-eight yards and those two scores. Quinn’s defense logged four sacks and seven QB hits and pressures apiece, while forcing three turnovers, two of which were interceptions, including the last being from (young Cornerback) DaRon Bland, who finished the campaign with a league best NINE picks, five of which were returned for six.

From a betting perspective, the Cowboys finished the regular season at 12-5 for the third year in a row, while being nearly as profitable against the spread with a 10-7 record. All anyone has been talking about in regard to this matchup is their stellar form at home, where they have won SIXTEEN consecutive games, covering all but four of them along the way. This year, they are 6-2 against the spread when playing at AT&T Stadium, though it should be noted that they have covered just one of the last three contests in Arlington, which includes their most recent, a narrow 22-20 victory over the Lions (-5) two weeks ago. As you can imagine, McCarthy’s troops have been favored in all eight of their home tilts this season, oftentimes by a sizeable margin; the ‘Boys have been favored by 7+ points on six occasions at AT&T, posting a 5-1 record against the spread as a result. With all that being said, the postseason has been a different story altogether for this franchise, who have failed to cover FOUR straight playoff home games, while generally capitulating opposite quality competition, covering just one of their last seven outings against opponents above .500. And then there is McCarthy, who from a spread standpoint has proven to be one of the most successful postseason coaches, owning a 14-6-1 record throughout the course of his career in the playoffs (11-10 SU), including 1-2 with the Cowboys (1-2 SU). Since parting ways with the Pack in 2018, he has faced his former employers just once, being that aforementioned mid-November affair at Lambeau Field from last Fall. The visitors took an early lead on the strength of a short touchdown pass from Prescott to Lamb, with the two linking up yet again in the third quarter on a 35-yard score to take a 14-point lead into the final stanza. However, the defense simply could not matchup with the Watson, who as we stated earlier, torched them for three touchdowns on the evening, including two in the final period, sending the affair into overtime. The visitors received possession to begin the extra period, though what began as a promising drive bogged down at the hosts’ 35-yard line, where they would fail to convert on a fourth-and-three. From there, Green Bay would retaliate by getting well into Crosby’s field goal range, which saw the game on veteran kicker’s stroke of the pigskin. When it was all said and done, Dallas rung up 421 total yards, including 265 yards on the right arm of Prescott, who tossed three scores, though was also intercepted on back-to-back possessions in the second quarter, which allowed the home side to get back into the game after their early assault. Lamb reeled in eleven of his fifteen targets for 150 yards and those two touchdowns, while (veteran Tailback) Tony Pollard churned out 115 yards and a score of his own on twenty-two carries. Over the course of his career, Prescott is only 1-4 all-time versus the Packers, completing 63.3% of his throws for an average of 305.6 yards on 7.70 net yards per attempt, with fourteen touchdowns in comparison to eight interceptions, which does include their lone postseason encounter, a 21-26 affair in the 2016 Divisional Round, which saw the 3-time Pro-Bowler make his first playoff start as a rookie. On the injury front, McCarthy & Co are looking in pretty good shape coming into this Wild Card Weekend, with the only notable players in question being (Defensive Linemen) Dorance Armstrong (ankle) and Jonathan Hankins (knee), along with (Sophomore Guard) Tyler Smith (foot). Looking ahead, if the Cowboys handle their business this evening, then they will face the highest-seeded team remaining from this round of the playoffs within the NFC, which could be anyone of the Eagles, Lions, or Rams, all of whom they have defeated earlier this season at AT&T.

Projected Outcome: Cowboys 34, Packers 20