NFL Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions

Super Wild Card Weekend rages on and the theme of reunions is no more relevant than in tonight’s affair between the surging Los Angeles Rams and the Detroit Lions, which will feature opposing Pro-Bowl Quarterbacks that were ironically traded for one another two years ago. Indeed, we’ll dive deep into the happenings in Detroit shortly, but for now, we’re going to show the Rams (10-7, 2nd in NFC West) some love, as they return to the playoffs after a brief hiatus. About two months ago, you would be hard-pressed to have found many people outside of Southern California that believed that Los Angeles would be competing at this stage, particularly as they entered their early-November bye week at an uninspiring 3-6. However, since that point, they have emerged as one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning SEVEN of their last eight contests, with that lone loss coming at the hands of (AFC top seed) Baltimore, in overtime no less. So, what in the name of Eric Dickerson has happened in LA, you ask? Well, this campaign was always set up to be one with a learning curve, as (Head Coach) Sean McVay and (General Manager) Les Snead were resigned to paying the price after chasing high-priced free agents for the better part of the previous five years, instead turning to a plethora of youth. This season, no team in the league featured more players with three or fewer years of experience (34), including FIFTEEN rookies, though many of them developed into quality contributors for the team. After years of brashly proclaiming !@#$ them picks!, McVay and Snead struck gold in the Draft, as four different rookies would go on to make a profound impact on their season, including (Defensive Linemen) Kobe Turner and Byron Young, (Guard) Steve Avila, and of course, (Receiver) Puka Nacua, who went on to shatter rookie receiving records with 1,486 yards on 105 catches. (Sophomore Tailback) Kyren Williams also blossomed into a lethal playmaker, rushing for a league-best 95.3 yards per game along with a dozen touchdowns, including 114.7 yards during their post-bye surge. And it is with all that said that this youthful injection has seemingly revitalized the career of (veteran Quarterback) Matthew Stafford, who was riddled by injuries in last year’s ill-fated defense of their Lombardi Trophy. Stafford (pictured below alongside McVay) missed eight games last season with a variety of injuries, though has been largely healthy in 2023, resulting in a fine comeback from the 35-year-old. In fifteen games he has completed 62.6% of his throws for an average of 264.3 yards on a much-improved 6.82 net yards per attempt, with twenty-four touchdowns in comparison to eleven interceptions, equating to a QBR of 63.7. Since the bye week, he too has taken his play to another level in connecting on 65.8% of his passes for 270.7 yards on 7.55 net yards per attempt, with sixteen touchdowns opposed to four picks. This surge concluded with a 26-25 victory over the Giants two weeks ago, as the Rams fended off a late rally from Big Blue. McVay’s troops led 14-10 at halftime thanks to touchdowns from Williams and (former triple crown Receiver) Cooper Kupp, eventually extending that advantage to ten points courtesy of another score form the former. However, a bust in coverage led to an 80-yard touchdown for the home side, who drew within one point following a short field goal at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Again, Williams would play the hero, ripping off a 28-yard jaunt into the end zone, though a missed extra point would throw this one into chaos. Trailing by seven points, New York promptly returned a 58-yard punt NINETY-FOUR yards to the house, though failed on the ensuing two-point conversion, leading the difference at only one point once again. Following a quick three-and-out, the G-Men once again drove downfield, setting up a potential game-winning field goal from fifty-four yards out, through it would ultimately sail wide of the mark, booking Los Angeles’ ticket to the postseason. When it was all said and done, the Rams rung up 391 total yards on twenty-two first downs, though experienced their share of struggles the cold and wind of MetLife Stadium, with three turnovers and just 2-of-8 conversions on third down. Stafford completed 24-of-34 attempts for 317 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, while suffering four sacks, eight hits, and seven pressures. Williams rushed for eighty-seven yards and those three scores on twenty carries, while Nacua hauled in five receptions for 118 yards. Defensively, (Defensive Coordinator) Raheem Morris may have shipped 389 total yards, but they got after Tyrod Taylor with SIX sacks, ten hits, and twelve pressures, along with an interception.

From a betting perspective, what you see has been pretty much what you get with the Rams this season, who enter the playoffs 10-7 straight-up and 10-6-1 against the spread. Either way, they’ve been a profitable option for those wagering upon them, particularly of late with SEVEN straight-up wins in their last eight contests, a stretch that includes six covers. Los Angeles once again finds themselves receiving points from the oddsmakers, which has been a solid foundation for them in posting a 4-3-1 mark versus the spread. With that being said, they have split their last four outings as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0 points, which is notable because they are getting three points in tonight’s trip to Ford Field. This excursion into the postseason marks their fifth since McVay took over back in 2017, with the skipper owning a stellar 7-3 record (5-5 ATS), including their triumphant run to Super Bowl LVI where they claimed the franchise’s second-ever Lombardi Trophy. Looking at this particular matchup, these teams have met on just four occasions over the last decade, with St. Louis/Los Angeles taking three of them, including their most recent encounter, a 28-19 victory at SoFi Stadium two years ago. With the wounds still fresh from the blockbuster deal that brought Stafford to the City of Angels in exchange for Goff, the hosts were favored by a whopping 16.5 points in that late-October clash only to find themselves trailing twice in the affair. The visitors raced out to an early 13-3 lead, though the Rams responded with back-to-back touchdown passes from Stafford to take a 17-16 advantage into halftime. The Lions would retake the lead after a pair of field goals, but Stafford would not be denied by his former employers, finding the aforementioned Kupp for their second score that evening, followed by a 47-yard field goal from (veteran Kicker) Matt Gay to put a stamp on the win. In the end, Los Angeles shipped 415 total yards to the visiting side, including 137 on the ground, though balanced the scales with two interceptions of Goff on his final two possessions, courtesy of (former Defensive Backs) Jalen Ramsey and Nick Scott. As for Stafford, he completed 28-of-41 passes for 334 yards, three touchdowns, linking up with Kupp for ten receptions, 156 yards, and those two scores. Over the course of his career, Stafford is 4-3 in the playoffs, completing 66.9% of his throws for an average of 299.4 yards on a healthy 7.84 net yards per attempt, with thirteen touchdowns opposed to six interceptions, while rushing for three more scores and losing a pair of fumbles. On the injury front, the Rams are a largely healthy team at this point, particularly after resting many of their notables in last weekend’s finale in Santa Clara, though there are a few players that should be monitored: (Tight End) Tyler Higbee (shoulder), (Offensive Lineman) Joe Noteboom (foot), (Linebacker) Troy Reeder (knee), and (Defensive Back) Jordan Fuller (ankle) are all listed as questionable with various ailments. Looking ahead, if Los Angeles springs the upset tonight, then they will in all likelihood be headed to San Francisco for a rubber match with the 49ers, whom they defeated in last weekend’s otherwise meaningless conclusion to the regular season. However, if the Packers happen to upset the Cowboys earlier today, then they will meet the winner of the Eagles/Buccaneers.

Meanwhile, has there been a better story in the NFL this season than that of the Lions (12-5, 1st in NFC North), who claimed their first division crown since 1991? Simply put, the resurrection of this long-starved franchise should serve as the blueprint for any team looking to pull themselves out of the doldrums, for their progress through these three years under the direction of (Head Coach) Dan Campbell and (General Manager) Brad Holmes has been undeniable. In their first campaign together, they went winless in their first eleven attempts en route to a fourth consecutive last-place finish. Year number two also started slowly, with five losses in their first six contests, though they would flip the proverbial script the rest of the way, with EIGHT victories in their final ten tilts, narrowly missing the playoffs as a result. The fact that Campbell had his charges playing so hard in a meaningless season finale at Lambeau Field which saw them eliminate Green Bay from playoff qualification was very telling, leaving many pundits proclaiming that this Pride was indeed ready for the big time in 2023. And it is with that said, that all of their hard work has paid off this season, as the Lions have won twelve games for the first time since 1991, which is coincidentally the last time that they won the NFC North and hosted a postseason affair. So, what is there to like about Detroit, you ask? As it turns out, A LOT. First and foremost, Campbell has found himself on the shortlist for Coach of the Year honors, even drawing interest from (his alma mater) Texas A&M in their search for a Head Coach. Furthermore, his two chief lieutenants, (Offensive Coordinator) Ben Johnson and (Defensive Coordinator) Aaron Glenn are two of the hottest names in the NFL’s current hiring cycle, with the former cultivating an attack that is arguably the most balanced in the league, ranking fifth in points scored (27.1), third in total offense (406.8), second in passing yards (270.9) and fifth in rushing yards (135.9). Campbell and Holmes have also done a tremendous job of drafting and developing talent, with a plethora of young players showing up in a big way this year, some even turning into stars. (Former Bears Tailback) David Montgomery and (Rookie RB) Jahmyr Gibbs came just fifty-five yards short of fielding TWO 1,000-yard rushers, with the latter emerging as a factor in the passing game too, with fifty-two receptions for 311 yards and a score, while (Rookie Tight End) Sam LaPorta set an NFL record with TEN receiving touchdowns in his first season as a professional. Furthermore, Sophomore Defensive End) Aidan Hutchinson is headed to the Pro-Bowl with 11.5 sacks, thirty-three QB hits, sixty-two pressures, while (young Safeties) Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch logged a combined seven interceptions, twenty-four defended passes, and a touchdown. Oh, and (third-year Receiver) Amon-Ra St. Brown posted career-highs in catches (119), receiving yards (1,515), and touchdowns (10). And then there is (veteran Quarterback) Jared Goff, who has served as the poster boy for this rebuild. Two years ago, Goff (pictured below alongside Campbell) was run out of Los Angeles in spectacular fashion, with the club that traded up to select him number one overall in 2015, packaging him along with TWO first-round picks in a deal with Detroit for the aforementioned Stafford. If that wasn’t bad enough, while he struggled in his new surroundings, he had to watch his former employers go on to win the Super Bowl that same year. Fastforward to the present and the 29-year-old has successfully rebuilt his once-promising career, completing 67.3% of his throws for an average of 269.1 yards on 6.89 net yards per attempt, with thirty touchdowns in comparison to twelve interceptions, equating to a QBR of 59.8. He and his teammates clinched the division with two weeks to spare, manhandling the Vikings in a 30-24 affair that wasn’t quite as close as the final score would indicate; Detroit outrushed the hosts 143-17 en route to possessing the football for a commanding 38:22, converting 6-of-12 third downs and both attempts on fourth. Furthermore, they registered FOUR takeaways in this one, picking off the hapless Nick Mullins four times, two of which came courtesy of Joesph. Goff completed an efficient 30-of- 40 throws for257 yards and a touchdown, while St. Brown hauled in twelve of his fourteen targets for 106 yards and a score. Gibbs amassed 100 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns on nineteen touches, while Montgomery sixty-nine of his own on the same volume.

From a betting perspective, the Lions have been arguably the most profitable team in the NFL this season, posting identical 12-5 records straight-up and against the spread, meaning that there has been a plethora of happy bettors in the city of Detroit and beyond for quite some time now. Indeed, this Pride ended the campaign much like they began it, covering each of their final four outings as they get set to host their first playoff game in over three decades. To give you an idea as to how the tide has turned in favor of Campbell & Co, this is a team that was favored in FOURTEEN games this season (10-4 ATS), which is the most respect that the oddsmakers have shown them in, well, it really has been quite a while. They have also begun performing well against quality competition, particularly when they have faced them at Ford Field, covering FIVE consecutive home tilts against opponents with winning records on the road, which is exact scenario that they find themselves in tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, it is difficult to place much emphasis at all on their previous meetings over the past decade for the fact that both teams have experienced some particularly dreadful form, especially the Lions, who won just seventeen games from 2018 to 2021, which was coincidentally a period in which the Rams featured in a pair of Super Bowls. Of course, that aforementioned 19-28 affair from two years ago saw Detroit given them all they could handle for long stretches of play despite the negative result. It was evident that Campbell’s troops, who began that campaign winless through twelve weeks, were looking for a spark in rallying behind Goff, who had been cast out of the LA clubhouse in favor of Stafford. The visitors came out firing, traveling seventy-five yards in little under three minutes as Goff found (former Tailback) D’Andre Swift for a 63-yard touchdown. Unfortunately, that would be the only time that he and his teammates would breach the end zone, as the contest would be characterized by settling for field goals despite routinely driving into enemy territory. These cats totaled 415 yards of offense, rushed for 137 yards on twenty-eight carries, converted 6-of-15 third downs and 2-of-3 fourth downs en route to possessing the football for 32:40, though they would burry four field goals, while the home side scored three touchdowns. In his first and only encounter with his former employers, Goff completed 22-of-36 passes for 268 yards and that opening score, though he was intercepted twice in the fourth quarter, the first while threatening at Los Angeles’ 12-yard line, with the latter effectively ending the game at midfield less than five minutes later. Swift had arguably his best day as a Lion, amassing 144 yards from scrimmage on twenty-one touches, though seeing as how he’s no longer on the team, let’s look at someone who is, as (underrated Receiver) Kalif Raymond reeled in 115 yards on six receptions. Over the course of his career, Goff is 3-3 in the playoffs, completing 57.3% of his throws for an average of 216.7 yards on 6.12 net yards per attempt, with four touchdowns and two interceptions. On the injury front, Raymond will mis tonight’s game with sore knee, though the by far and away the biggest potential absence may be that of LaPorta, who is officially listed as questionable due to a bulky knee of his own. However, reports out of Detroit indicate that the rookie did indeed practice on Friday, which is a good sign that he will take the gridiron for this Wild Card Clash. Looking ahead, if the Lions do in fact handle their business at home, then they will be headed to Dallas for a rematch with the Cowboys, who narrowly bested them in a 22-20 primetime affair at AT&T Stadium two weeks ago.

Projected Outcome: Lions 34, Rams 27