Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers

Happy holidays from everyone here at Oracle Sports, and what better to put a bow on the day than with a potential Super Bowl preview featuring the two top seeds from the AFC and NFC, as the San Francisco 49ers play host to the Baltimore Ravens from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. While the AFC has been littered with quality teams vying for postseason contention, the Ravens (11-3, 1st in AFC North) have been the most consistent force in the conference, and as such have begun to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. Coming into this Fall, there was a feeling that this team was ready to take flight after struggling down the stretch in each of the previous two campaigns, due in large part to untimely injuries to (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Lamar Jackson. Of course, Baltimore was locked within a contract standoff with Jackson (pictured below) for nearly a year, with the 26-year-old looking to reset the QB market with a fully guaranteed long-term deal. After months of contentious negotiations, (Head Coach) John Harbaugh and (General Manager) Eric DeCosta came to terms with the 2019 MVP, keeping him in Charm City for the foreseeable future with a 5-year, $260 million contract featuring a record $185 million in total guarantees. Apart from the windfall of cash, one of the reasons that Jackson opted to stay in Baltimore was the investment that the club was making in the passing game after years of employing the most run-heavy scheme in the NFL. The Ravens added (veteran Receivers) Odell Beckham Jr and Nelson Agholor in free agency, while selecting (Rookie Wideout) Zay Flowers twenty-second overall in last April’s NFL Draft. However, the most notable addition has been that of (Offensive Coordinator) Todd Monken, who has brought a more balanced, conventional approach to the passing game. The results speak for themselves, folks: Jackson & Co rank fourth in points (27.4) and fifth in total yards (388.3), eighth on third down (42.6%), and tenth in the red zone (60.7%). Sure, they are still the most productive rushing attack in the league (163.8), but they’ve been far more efficient throwing the football; despite ranking twentieth in passing offense (224.5), Monken’s unit ranks sixth in net yards per pass attempt (6.65), with eighteen touchdowns (18th Overall) in comparison to seven interceptions, second-fewest overall. Interestingly, Jackson has grown within the pocket, which is something that his critics have been clamoring for years for. His time in the pocket (2.7 seconds) is the most of his career, while his pressure percentage (16.8%) is the lowest since his magical campaign of 2019. Oh, but he can still carve up opponents with his legs, rushing for 745 yards and five touchdowns on 5.5 yards per carry, though his average yardage per game (52.9) stands as his fewest since his rookie season, which is yet another sign that he is more willing to play from the pocket. Furthermore, it helps that both Beckham, healthy for the first time in years, and Flowers have emerged as dynamic playmakers downfield, accounting for 519 and 680 yards respectively with three scores apiece, which is all the more important given the loss of (Pro-Bowl Tight End) Mark Andrews for the remainder of the season. With that being said, the opposite side of the coin has been a dominant defense that has yielded the fewest points in the league (16.1), which played a huge role in last weekend’s 23-7 drubbing of the Jaguars in Northern Florida. Harbaugh’s troops relegated the hosts to 333 total yards on sixteen first downs, seventy-five rushing yards on seventeen carries, and 3-of-13 on third down, while winning the takeaway battle 2-1. Jacksonville certainly didn’t help their own cause, missing back-to-back field goals in first quarter, but credit the visitors for forcing and recovering a pair of fumbles and turning them away on fourth down on their final possession of the night. Jackson & Co bludgeoned them on the ground, rushing for 251 yards on forty-two carries en route to dominating time of possession for a commanding 34:19 of game time, with the signal-caller rushing for ninety-seven yards on twelve attempts, while (veteran Tailback) Gus Edwards rushed for fifty-eight yards and a touchdown on sixteen carries. (Sophomore Tight End) Isaiah Likely made in impact on primetime, hauling Jackson’s lone passing score, totaling seventy receiving yards on five catches. (Fourth-year Defensive Lineman) Justin Madubuike, who has been have quite the season, logged his twelfth sack, his ELEVENTH consecutive game with at least half a sack, a franchise record.

From a betting perspective, the Ravens may be a stellar 11-3 straight-up this Fall, but they have been nearly as rewarding versus the spread, posting a 9-5 record thus far. Consistency and resilience best define Baltimore in this regard, as they yet to go back-to-back games without a cover this season. Interestingly, tonight’s trip to Santa Clara marks only the second time that they have been an underdog this year, with the only other instance being a 27-24 victory at Cincinnati (+3.5) back in Week Two. In fact, it has become a general rule of thumb to take these birds when they are getting points; Harbaugh’s troops are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten outings as an underdog, including 4-1 in their last five such contests. On the flipside, you may want to be wary of the fact they are coming off of such a one-sided performance, for they have failed to cover FOUR straight tilts after limiting an opponent to fewer than fifteen points, while posting an 0-6-1 mark against the spread in their last seven games following a win of fourteen or more points. Looking at this particular matchup, these franchises have met on just seven occasions since the Ravens arrived in Baltimore back in 1996, with the blackbirds taking five of those encounters (3-4 ATS). Of course, the most notable meeting came in Super Bowl XLVII, where Harbaugh & Co bested his brother Jim in a thrilling triumph that resulted in the club’s second Lombardi Trophy. However, that affair took place over a decade ago, with their most recent battle, a 20-17 victory at M&T Bank Stadium, likely serving as good reference point for tonight’s game. Both teams entered the playoffs as the number one seed of their respective conferences, with Jackson well on his way to earning MVP honors, which may be the case once again. After San Francisco drew first blood, the hosts struck back with a 20-yard touchdown from Jackson to the aforementioned Andrews, before the QB ran one in by himself on the next possession. From there, the visitors would square it away at 14-14, before the elements took a turn for the worse, turning the game into a field goal fest, which (perennial All-Pro Kicker) Justin Tucker took advantage, drilling the game-winning 49-yarder as time expired. In the end, both sides kept it on the ground with over 170 rushing yards, though the Ravens made more timely plays when they needed them, converting on two key fourth downs, including one on the final drive. Jackson completed 14-of-23 passes for 105 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for 101 yards and another score (with a fumble) on sixteen carries. Andrews, who will likely miss the rest of the current campaign due to a cracked fibula and torn ligament in his ankle, hauled in three receptions for fifty yards and that aforementioned score. Defensively, Baltimore did a great job of disrupting the Niners’ rhythm on offense, limiting them to 4-of-12 on third down and just fifteen first downs, while forcing and recovering a fumble and sending one of their field goal attempts in the second half wide of the sticks. On the injury front, (Sophomore Safety) Kyle Hamilton is listed as questionable with soreness in his knee sustained two weeks ago, while the season is unfortunately over for (Rookie Tailback) Keaton Mitchell, who tore his ACL in last weekend’s victory in Jacksonville, further depleting a backfield that has lost their projected starter, J.K. Dobbins for the year thanks to another serious knee injury. Looking ahead, if the Ravens wish to maintain their grip in the AFC’s number one seed, then they will surely earn it, for after this potential Super Bowl preview they will play host to the most prolific attack in the league, the Dolphins, before wrapping up the regular season with a visit from the Steelers.

Meanwhile, the NFC has been nothing short of top-heavy this Fall, with the 49ers (11-3, 1st in NFC West) staking their claim as the clear frontrunner in the conference. After falling in the NFC Championship Game in each of the last two seasons, San Francisco appears to be poised to return to the Super Bowl, where they will be seeking the franchise’s sixth Lombardi Trophy, which would be their first in thirty years. So, what makes this particular iteration of the Niners different from their recent predecessors, you ask? Well, this is easily the most potent offense that (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan has had in his seven years in Santa Clara. Through fourteen games, they rank third in points (30.4), second in total offense (412.9), second in passing yards (273.0), third in rushing yards (139.9), fourth on third down (47.9%), and first in the red zone (68.5%), all the while leading the league with the fewest turnovers (12) and most takeaways (25). Furthermore, the defense continues to be excellent with their third different coordinator in four years, with Steve Wilks’ unit permitting just 16.7 points (2nd Overall) on 310.0 total yards (9th Overall). Two in-season acquisitions from last year have propelled this team to new heights, namely (All-Pro Tailback) Christian McCaffrey and (unheralded Quarterback) Brock Purdy. McCaffrey (pictured below) is the ultimate chess piece within this offense, racking up 1,801 yards from scrimmage and TWENTY total touchdowns, averaging a healthy 6.0 yards per touch. The versatility of this guy along with (veteran Receiver) Deebo Samuel (pictured alongside McCaffrey) has allowed Shanahan to move them around the formation in a variety of positions, with their pre-snap motion causing chaos for opposing defenses. Of course, there needs to be a reliable hand to get them the football, which is where Purdy comes into the equation. It has been quite a while that we’ve seen a story like his; the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft (262nd Overall), the Iowa State product took over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo late last season and helped lead the Niners an 8-game win streak into the playoffs before suffering an elbow injury early in the NFC Championship Game. Shanahan and (General Manager) John Lynch were so convinced that Purdy was their guy, that they parted ways with both Garoppolo and (2021 third overall pick) Trey Lance in short order, which is investment that has paid off in spades. Indeed, the 23-year-old has grossly exceeded expectations by leaps and bounds, leading the league with TWENTY-NINE touchdowns while completing an efficient 69.8% of his throws for an average of 271.1 yards on a healthy 8.90 net yards per attempt, with just seven interceptions and a QBR of 76.0, which also paces the NFL. To put this into perspective, this is a passing game that has attempted the FEWEST passes in the NFL (391) only to produce the second-most yards through the air (3,677). No wonder Purdy has become the betting favorite to win MVP honors, which would be quite the story. When we last saw the 49ers, they marched to a SIXTH consecutive victory, with last Sunday’s 45-29 affair in Arizona clinching a second NFC West crown in as many years. In an entertaining contest that saw both sides rack up over 400 of yards of total offense, the difference ultimately proved to be turnovers, with the redbirds committing two, the most notable being a 66-yard interception return to the house by (veteran Cornerback) Charvarius Ward. Sure, the Cardinals did rush for a whopping 234 yards against the league’s top run defense, but it wasn’t enough to keep pace with a visiting attack that met very little resistance throughout the evening. Shanahan’s charges faced just SEVEN third downs altogether, which should give you all an idea as to what kind of performance that they put together. Purdy completed 16-of-25 passes for 242 yards, four interceptions and zero turnovers, while McCaffrey erupted with 187 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns, with Samuel hauling in two scores on four receptions for forty-eight yards. Ward had TWO picks on the day, while the defense as a whole logged three sacks, four QB hits, and seven pressures.

From a betting perspective, the 49ers too are 11-3 straight-up this Fall, though they haven’t been quite as rewarding as their opponent tonight when it comes to the spread, posting an 8-5-1 record in that regard. San Francisco started off like a house on fire, going unbeaten versus the spread in their first five games (4-0-1 ATS), only to go on a 3-game losing streak perpetuated by a rash of injuries to key personnel. However, Shanahan’s troops have bounced right back, with SIX consecutive outright victories, while covering four of them along the way. The problem when it comes to betting on this team is that they been heavily favored on a number of occasions, facing double-digit spreads FIVE times thus far, posting a 3-2 mark along the way, including last weekend’s thumping of the Cardinals (-11). With that being said, these Niners have failed to cover three consecutive homes games, though they have generally turned up when facing tougher opponents in Santa Clara, with FOUR straight covers at home versus teams above .500. Looking at this particular matchup, we talked about the relative history between these franchises, including their encounter in Super Bowl XLVII, in which the 49ers furious second half rally came up just short of delivering their first Lombardi Trophy since 1994. While they would get a measure of revenge two years later at Levi’s Stadium, their most recent meeting, that aforementioned 17-20 affair in Baltimore four years ago, would see the league’s top two teams trade blows in what every bit was the heavyweight battle that it was billed to be. Samuel got them on the board with a 33-yard touchdown on their opening possession, before the hosts struck back with back-to-back touchdowns take the lead. (Former Tailback) Raheem Mostert tied it up with a 40-yard sprint to the end zone, before a field goal gave the lead back to the Ravens. Wit the wind and rain picking up in the second half, scoring opportunities were scarce, as the visitors were forced to settle for a despite driving deep into the red zone, while their final possession ended on a fourth-and-one on the fringes of (former Kicker) Robbie Gould’s field goal range. In the end, the 49ers simply didn’t make enough plays to win a game that was up for grabs for much of the afternoon, fumbling away the football deep in their own territory to set up the hosts’ second touchdown, while Gould missed a field goal attempt from fifty-one yards that would have squared it away heading into intermission. The aforementioned Garoppolo completed 15-of-21 passes for just 165 yards and a touchdown, but lost that crucial fumble on a sack midway through the second period. Samuel was quiet after that opening score, with just forty-one yards on two catches, while (Pro-Bowl Tight End) George Kittle was relegated to a mere seventeen yards on two receptions and failed to reel in a short throw on that fateful fourth down. On the injury front, the status of a number of Niners hangs in the balance, as (veteran Defensive Tackles) Arik Armstead (foot/knee) and Javon Hargrave (hamstring), (young Cornerback) Deommodore Lenoir (ribs), and (backup Tailback) Elijah Mitchell (knee) are listed as questionable to participate in this primetime affair. Looking ahead, if Shanahan & Co make it out of this one with a win, then they have to like their chances of clinching the NFC’s number one seed next weekend as they travel to Landover to battle the struggling Commanders, before ending the regular season at home against the Rams.

Projected Outcome: 49ers 33, Ravens 27