NFL Playoffs: Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The final act of Super Wild Card Weekend takes us down to the Gulf Coast, where the reeling Philadelphia Eagles hope to finally snap out of the malaise that they have been mired in for the past six weeks, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are simply asking the question “Why not us?” Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but my, oh my, what a difference a year makes, which is a sentiment that certainly applies to these Eagles (11-6, 2nd in NFC East), who just a year ago ran roughshod through the NFC en route to participating in their fourth Super Bowl in franchise history. Coming into this campaign, Philadelphia was considered a serious threat to finish the job, though now that we’ve completed the regular season it is clear that they are far removed from the side that nearly hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. Indeed, it has been the tale of two seasons for these birds: the first twelve weeks in which they owned the league’s best record (10-1), and the last six contests in which they’ve struggled to win only once. So, what in the name of Ron Jaworski has happened in the City of Brotherly Love, you ask? Well, we’ve been shouting from the mountaintop for months now that this team has not only been dramatically affected by the loss of a number of personnel (6 starters left in Free Agency), but more so by the departure of Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon, who were hired as the Head Coaches of the Colts and Cardinals respectively. Simply put, those two tacticians were very good at their jobs, with (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni very fortunate to have them, though the skipper has utterly failed in replacing them. Succeeding Steichen is (former QB Coach) Brian Johnson, whose work with (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Jalen Hurts earned him the promotion. Hurts’ (pictured below) growth over his first three years in the NFL has been exponential, culminating in last year’s emergence as the runner-up for MVP honors. However, going from position coach to chief playcaller has been a difficult transition for Johnson, who has overseen plenty of regression on this side of the football. Sure, this unit ranked seventh in scoring (25.5) and eighth in total yards (368.7), but they seriously lacked rhythm and cohesiveness, due in large part to a whopping TWENTY-EIGHT turnovers (23rd Overall), nine more than last season. And then there is the defensive side of things, where Sean Desai was imported from Seattle to take over a unit that finished third in both points allowed and total defense, while amassing twenty-seven takeaways and a staggering SEVENTY sacks, the most that the league has seen in over forty years. Unfortunately, Desai looked like someone who never quite understood what he was working with, as the Eagles plummeted to thirtieth in points allowed (25.2), twenty-sixth in total defense (356.1), next-to-last against the pass (252.7) and on third down (46.4%), and thirtieth in the red zone (66.1%), aided by just eighteen takeaways (23rd Overall) and forty-three sacks, which is twenty-seven fewer than last season. Things got so bad that Sirianni opted to demote Desai in favor of (Senior Defensive Assistant) Matt Patricia, though that change hasn’t netted anything close to the desired results. The last two losses have been the most damning for Philadelphia, including a stunning 31-35 affair at home against Gannon’s new employers, the Cardinals, and last weekend’s 10-27 capitulation to the Giants. Keep in mind that those two teams sport a combined record of 10-24, though they nonetheless moved the football at will against Philly’s beleaguered unit, amassing well over 400 total yards apiece. Hell, Arizona rushed for 221 yards despite that being the lone thing that this group still does well, converting 5-of-10 third downs and each of their attempts on fourth to keep their final frantic final drive alive. At this point, it is very clear that there is something broken within the team, with very little time to fix things. No matter the outcome of tonight’s contest, Sirianni and (General Manager) Howie Roseman are going to have some very difficult questions to answer, for they have completely dropped the ball following one of the most successful campaigns in franchise history.

From a betting perspective, the Eagles backed into the playoffs with a11-6 record straight-up, winning just one of their final six games of the campaign. However, they have been a far less rewarding team against the spread, posting a mediocre 7-8-2 mark in that regard. This is a team that has now failed to cover the spread SIX consecutive weeks, which is the longest barren stretch that any team has suffered this season. In fact, these birds have now gone winless versus the spread in SEVEN straight games (0-6-1 ATS), all of which coming against NFC opponents. Furthermore, it should be noted that they haven’t responded very well to getting blown out, which has been a bit of rarity under the current regime; Philadelphia is 0-6-1 versus the spread in their last seven tilts following a straight-up loss of fourteen points or more, which is the case tonight. Basically, this is what happens when a very talented team finds themselves in a prolonged funk brought on by not just injuries, but internal issues. As a result, they’ve been favored in each of their last four outings, including two by 12+ points, yet have nonetheless failed to cover the spread. Yet again, Philly is a favorite tonight, though a much smaller one, which could very well benefit them here and win back the favor of the betting community; Sirianni’s troops are a stellar 7-1-1 against the spread in their last nine games when favored by 0.5-3.0 points. Looking at this particular matchup, the Eagles have lost all but one of the last five meetings dating back to 2015 straight-up (2-3 ATS), with the most prominent being a 15-31 blowout at Raymond James Stadium in the 2021 Wild Card Round. However, they did leave the Big Sombrero victorious when they crossed paths with Tampa back in late September, which was coincidentally a Monday Night affair as well. This one was all Philly, folks, as the visitors steadily amassed a 25-3 lead until the home side finally breached the end zone midway through the fourth quarter. By then, it was a case of too little, too late; Philadelphia outgained the Bucs 472-174, outrushed them 201-41, logged twenty-seven first downs opposed to their twelve, and converted 10-of-16 third downs (and 2-of-3 fourth downs) en route to possessing the football for a commanding 38:55. If not for a pair of interceptions on the part of Hurts, which were partly induced by a driving rainstorm that blew through the stadium for much of the game, then this contest could have looked even more one-sided. Hurts completed 23-of-37 passes for 277 yards, a touchdown and those two picks, while rushing ten times for twenty-eight yards and another score. (Young Tailback) D’Andre Swift churned out 130 rushing yards, while (Pro-Bowl Receiver) A.J. Bown hauled in nine receptions on fourteen targets for 131 yards. Defensively, the birds forced a pair of turnovers themselves, picking off Baker Mayfield (much more on him in a bit) and forcing/recovering a fumble to boot. On the injury front, Hurts has been nursing a bulky knee for nearly a month, though all anyone could talk about following last weekend’s loss at the Meadowlands was the dislocated finger on his throwing hand. He will be toughing it out tonight, but the same cannot be said about the aforementioned Brown, who missed that finale and will be sidelined once more with an ailing knee of his own. Looking ahead, if the Eagles manage to finally right the ship and leave the Gulf Coast as victors, then they will be heading to Ford Field next Sunday to battle the Lions, who are fresh off their first playoff victory in over three decades.

Meanwhile, that same notion of “oh, what a difference a year makes” also applies to the Buccaneers (9-8, 1st in NFC South), who have grossly exceeded expectations in what was for all intents and purposes supposed to be a transition year for the franchise. After parting ways with (7-time Super Bowl Champion) Tom Brady, this was a franchise that was hitting the proverbial reset button and closing the book on the most successful era in their history. With Brady at Quarterback, Tampa Bay went 32-18 from 2020 to 2022, a period which included three consecutive postseason appearances, back-to-back division titles, and a Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LV. That success was built on the backs of a largely veteran roster, particularly on the offensive side of the football, and when Brady finally opted to call it a career, (Head Coach) Todd Bowles and (General Manager) Jason Licht decided that they were going to turn their attention to youth. As a result, the Bucs fielded the second-most players with two or less years of experience, second only to the Rams, including thirteen rookies. However, they also benefitted from some inspired additions in Free Agency, chief among them the addition of (veteran Quarterback) Baker Mayfield, who has resurrected his once-promising career on the Gulf Coast. By now we should all be well-acquainted with the story of Mayfield (pictured below), the number one overall pick of the Cleveland Browns in the 2018 NFL Draft, who would in just his third season would lead them to their first playoff victory in nearly three decades. However, the Heisman-winner would eventually wear out his welcome in Northern Ohio, as the franchise unceremoniously dumped in favor pursuing Deshaun Watson, trading Mayfield to Carolina where he would he struggled mightily en route to being placed on waivers after just seven games. From there, he would land with the Rams, who were dealing with their own issues at QB, starting four contests. In free agency, nobody knew what to makes of 28-year-old, metrics and personality weren’t for everyone. Thankfully, he landed with the Buccaneers, who remarkably had no succession plan in place following Brady’s departure, which has developed into a marriage that has future in South Florida. Despite clear deficiencies along the Offensive Line and the ground game, (new Offensive Coordinator) Dave Canales has crafted an attack that plays to the strength of the personnel, a methodical, efficient passing game. Mayfield has completed 64.3% of his throws for an average of 237.9 yards on 6.29 net yards per attempt, with twenty-eight touchdowns in comparison to just ten interceptions, equating to a QBR of 54.4, all of which rank among his best marks in years. Taking care of the football has been the key, for the Bucs have committed just eighteen turnovers all season, the sixth fewest in the NFL, which has really proven to be their saving grace. It has also helped immensely that Mayfield has had premium pass-catching options at his disposal, with the ageless Mike Evans hauling in seventy-nine receptions for 1,255 yards and a league-best thirteen touchdowns, tying the (Hall of Fame Wideout) Jerry Rice with TEN consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns to begin a career. He and his Quarterback clinched their third consecutive NFC South crown with last weekend’s glacial 9-0 shutout of the lowly Panthers, an affair that saw Mayfield gut it out through a variety of ailments (more on that in a bit) to see off the worst team in the NFL. Three field goals courtesy of (young Kicker) Chase McLaughlin is all Tampa needed to get the job done here, as Bowles’ defense relegated the cats to 199 total yards, eleven first downs, 2-of-12 on third down, and a net sixty-eight passing yards. Struggling through pain, Mayfield completed 20-of-32 passes for just 137 yards, while suffering three sacks, six hits, and eight pressures. However, the dormant rushing attack showed signs of life with 113 yards on twenty-nine carries, led by (Sophomore Tailback) Rachaad White amassed ninety-three yards from scrimmage on twenty-three touches. The visitors forced two fumbles, including a clutch strip sack courtesy of (young Edge-Rusher) Joe Tryon-Shoinka, who ripped the ball loose of Bryce Young as Carolian threatened late.

From a betting perspective, the Buccaneers have very much been the anti-Eagles this season, posting a middling 9-8 record straight-up, only to be far more rewarding against the spread with an 11-6 ledger. Our opinion is that the oddsmakers never really had a handle on Tampa this season, particularly when you consider the exodus of veteran talent on the offensive side of the football during the offseason. Then again, you could make the argument that they didn’t know what to make of them last year either; the 2022 Bucs were among the worst in NFL history when it came to covering the spread, with a nauseating 4-13-1 mark (including the playoffs). We’ll call it the Tom Brady Effect, for this was a team that favored on FOURTEEN occasions, including each of their first twelve outings, only to turn around and find themselves receiving points from the oddsmakers twelve times this season, including tonight. For those of you wondering, Bowles’ troops have really relished being underdogs with an 8-3 record as such, winning five of them outright, which if the most of any team in the league. It should also be noted that this is a group that has done a really solid job of bouncing back from a poor offensive showing, covering TEN out of their last eleven games after being relegated below 250 total yards of offense in the previous week. Looking at this particular matchup, the Buccaneers OWNED this series four the bulk of seven years, winning four meetings between 2015 and 2022. However, once again, we’re going to chalk that up to the Brady Effect, as the GOAT participated in two of them, including that aforementioned blowout in the 2021 Wild Card Round. As for this season’s 11-25 loss on Monday Night Football back on September 25th, that was a different story altogether. Tamp Bay ran head on into a brick wall in that one, as Mayfield & Co proved incapable of doing just about anything when they had the football, amassing just 174 total yards and twelve first downs. Apart from a 13-play drive that culminated in a field goal, the hosts punted on each of their first four possessions, before finally getting on the board. Mayfield would then be intercepted in his own territory, while the aforementioned White was stripped of the football on the following drive. Then after another punt, the Bucs found themselves backed up on their own goal line, leading to White being stuffed behind the line of scrimmage for a safety. It wasn’t until they trailed 3-25 that they managed to find any semblance of rhythm, driving seventy-five yards downfield against a much softer defense, concluding with Mayfield finding Evans and Godwin for the touchdown and ensuing two-point conversion. When it was all said and done, the veteran Quarterback completed 15-of-25 passes for 146 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while suffering a pair of sacks, five hits, and eight pressures. White experienced something of a nightmare, amassing sixty-two yards from scrimmage on seventeen touches, with a lost fumble and that safety. Evans accounted for the lone touchdown for the home side, but caught just five of his ten targets for sixty yards. On the injury front, Mayfield has been dealing with a multitude of maladies for a few weeks now, including tender ribs and ankle, though he’s played through much worse, so we can expect to see him tonight. Ditto for (Left Tackle) Tristan Whirffs, who has been dealing with an illness throughout the week. Looking ahead, if the Buccaneers manage to eliminate the reigning NFC Champions, then they will be heading north to Detroit, where the Lions will be waiting to host their second consecutive home playoff game after a 32-year drought.

Projected Outcome: Buccaneers 20, Eagles 17