NFL Playoffs: Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

The Divisional Round of the Playoffs rages on with a classic yet unexpected matchup between historic franchises, as the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers play host to the young Green Bay Packers, who are fresh off pulling the biggest upset of the postseason. My, oh my, what a difference a year has made for the Packers (9-8, 2nd in NFC North), who this time last season saw their playoff hopes crumble into dust on their home field, which ultimately led to the dramatic departure of (longtime Quarterback) Aaron Rodgers, finally thrusting the franchise into the future. As a result, Green Bay entered this campaign as very much an unknown, for it was difficult to discern just how much of their success over the previous four seasons was due to the sublime play of their former QB. Under the proverbial microscope were two figures: (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur and (fourth year QB) Jordan Love. The former had led the Pack to a stellar 47-19 (.712) record from 2019-2022, including three division titles/playoff appearances and a pair of trips to the NFC Championship Game, while the latter had lived largely within Rodgers’ shadow, attempting just eighty-three passes in three seasons despite being selected twenty-sixth overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. Could LaFleur adjust without Rodgers pulling the trigger? Would Love (pictured below) be worth the wait? Well, with the regular season now in the books, the answer to both questions is YES. The offense has seen a much more balanced approach than in recent years, ranking twelfth in scoring (22.5), eleventh in total yards (359.7), twelfth in passing (247.6) and fifteenth in rushing (112.1), all the while converting a healthy 47.1% of their third downs (5th Overall) and committing the sixth-fewest turnovers in the league (18). LaFleur and his coaching staff have also done a tremendous job of developing the young talent on hand, with a different fresh face making plays each week. (Sophomore Wideout) Romeo Doubs emerged as a growing weapon last season and has thus been joined by the likes of (Rookie Receivers) Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks, who have combined for 103 receptions, 1,374 yards, and twelve touchdowns, with Reed matching Doubs for the team lead in receiving scores (8). Furthermore, (young Tight Ends) Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft have been ever present, with each pass-catcher topping thirty catches, 350 yards and a score. Of course, this growth around the Quarterback has been possible in large part due to the growth of Love, who has exceeded the short-term expectations in succeeding Rodgers. Granted, we’ll have to wait and see if he can lead Green Bay to a Lombardi Trophy as his predecessor did, though the initial results have been promising. The 25-year-old has been very efficient in his first season as the starter, completing 64.2% of his throws for an average of 244.6 yards per game on 6.43 net yards per attempt, with thirty-two touchdowns in comparison to eleven interceptions, equating to a QBR of 62.0. To put that into perspective, each of those figures are improvements over what Rodgers produced in 2022. Credit to both LaFleur and Love for the decision-making of the latter, which was a serious concern when he was coming out of Utah State, though it is clear that three years on the sideline has helped iron out of the proverbial wrinkles. Make no mistake, there were NO wrinkles to be found in last weekend’s stunning 48-32 upset of the Cowboys, which these young Packers announce themselves to the world before an utterly dejected crowd at AT&T Stadium. While we would love to know what was going on behind the scenes for Dallas prior to Sunday’s debacle, Green Bay more than earned their flowers, racing out to a commanding 27-0 lead before the hosts finally breached the end zone just before halftime. It was academic from that point, folks, for every time that the hosts managed to score in the second half, the visitors were right there to retaliate with another score of their own. In the end, LaFleur’s charges amassed 415 total yards on twenty-two first downs, rushing for 143 yards and three touchdowns on thirty-three carries, while converting 6-of-10 third downs along the way. Green Bay clearly meant business from the opening kickoff, producing a 12-play, 75-yard drive culminating in a short touchdown courtesy of (veteran Tailback) Aaron Jones, bleeding nearly EIGHT minutes off the clock in the process. After exchanging punts, (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Jaire Alexander intercepted Dak Prescott and very nearly returned it to the house, though was ultimately ruled down after making contact with an opponent in snatching the football. Four plays later, Jones barreled into the end zone to double the lead. With the ground game proving to be effective, Love began dissecting Dallas via play-action, finding Wicks twenty yards downfield for the first of two scores. Then, on the ensuing possession, Prescott was intercepted once more, this time by (veteran Safety) Darnell Savage, who successfully returned it to the house. When it was all said done, Love completed an efficient 16-of-21 passes for 272 yards and three touchdowns, while Jones continued to perform at a high level in his home state, rushing for 118 yards and three scores of his own on twenty-one carries. Doubs hauled in all six of his targets for 151 yards and a touchdown, while Musgrave added fifty-two yards and another score on three catches. Defensively, the visiting side sacked Prescott four times and hit him on nine occasions, with those two interceptions breaking the affair wide open.

From a betting perspective, what you see is basically what you get with the Packers, who are 10-8 both straight-up and against the spread this season. Essentially, when they win, they almost always cover, and when they lose, they typically don’t cover either, with only two games proving to be outliers. The reason for that has been the fact that they have received points from the oddsmakers on more occasions this year than in any of the previous seventeen campaigns, including THIRTEEN tilts as an underdog (8-5 ATS). As the first seventh seed to advance to the next round of the playoffs, we wouldn’t expect that to change anytime soon, particularly as they travel to Santa Clara to face the 49ers, who are favored by 9.5 points tonight. Interestingly, the road team has won and covered each of the last three meetings between these classic franchises, who will be meeting in the postseason for the third time in the last five years. Green Bay is 4-5 all-time against San Francisco in such affairs, with their most recent coming in the 2022 Division Round, in which the top-seeded Pack succumbed to a calamity of errors in the second half en route to a bitter 10-13 defeat. That was coincidentally the last time that these sides crossed paths, though as we have kept hammering home, this is a very different group now that Rodgers is no longer the triggerman. While tonight’s contest will be Love’s first start against the Niners, let us instead focus on LaFleur, who will be matching wits with his mentor, Kyle Shanahan, for the sixth time in his career. The 44-year-old was part of the prodigious coaching staff in Washington that featured future Head Coaches such as Shanahan, Sean McVay, and Mike McDaniel, all of which having gone to achieve varying levels of success. LaFleur would follow Shanahan to Atlanta where he served as the QB Coach for the NFC Champion Falcons in 2016, before eventually being hired by the Packers to be their new leading man in 2019. The apprentice is 2-3 all-time against the master, with both playoff battles ending in favor of the latter. On the injury front, Green Bay hopes to see the return of (veteran Tailback) A.J. Dillon, who missed the last two contests due to the effects of a stinger. The 6-0, 247-pound Dillon serves as the thunder to Jones’ lightning, rushing for 613 yards and a pair of touchdowns this season. With the ground game playing such a key role in their domination of Dallas last weekend, we can expect an even heavier dose of the same if the big fella is good to go. Joining him in the list of those questionable to participate tonight are (Tackle) Caleb Jones (illness/foot), (Sophomore Receiver) Christian Watson (hamstring), and the aforementioned duo of Alexander (shoulder) and Reed (chest). Looking ahead, a second successive upset by these young Packers would propel them to their eleventh NFC Title Game in franchise history and third in the last five years, where they would meet the winner tomorrow’s duel between the Buccaneers and Lions.

Meanwhile, after the shocking events of Wild Card Weekend, it is very difficult not to like the 49ers’ (12-5, 1st in NFC West) prospects to advance to Super Bowl LVIII. Coming into this campaign, the common opinion was that there were just three teams that were capable of emerging from the NFC and legitimately challenge for the Lombardi Trophy, with the likes of the Cowboys and Eagles having already been eliminated in spectacular fashion. By that math, San Francisco is the lone side standing, which should sound the alarms in Santa Clara with the hopes that they manage to avoid suffering the same fate this weekend. Simply put, it would be a MAJOR upset if these Niners don’t make it to Las Vegas in two weeks, for apart from a disappointing loss to the Ravens on Christmas Night, this has been the most dominant side in the NFC. On the season, (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan’s troops ranked third in both points scored (29.8) and allowed (17.5), second in total offense (409.7) and eighth in total defense (303.9), fourth on third down (47.5%) and first in the red zone (67.2%), all the while operating with a healthy +10 turnover differential. For those concerned over the growth of (Sophomore Quarterback) Brock Purdy, the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft has continued to prove his naysayers wrong, completing an efficient 69.4% of his throws for an average of 267.5 yards on 8.74 net yards per attempt, with thirty-one touchdowns in comparison to eleven interceptions en route to a QBR of 72.7, the highest such figure in the league. Indeed, the Pro-Bowler is much more of a distributor than a raw thrower of the football, but that is just fine within Shanahan’s scheme, particularly when you consider the talent that he is surrounded by. In his first full season with the 49ers after being acquired at the trade deadline last year, (All-Pro Tailback) Christian McCaffrey led the NFL with 1,459 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per carry, while continuing to play a sizable role in the passing game with sixty-seven receptions for another 564 yards and seven scores, bringing his all-purpose totals to 2,023 yards and twenty-one touchdowns, both of which were first among his peers. McCaffrey (pictured below) is the chess piece that Shanahan utilized in a myriad of ways, oftentimes lining up as a Receiver in an effort to create mismatches with Linebackers, while (fellow Pro-Bowler) Deebo Samuel in turn lines up in the Backfield as the rare Wideout that can carry the football from behind the line of scrimmage. Defensively, San Francisco faced the prospect of replacing their second Defensive Coordinator in three seasons, bringing in Steve Wilks to call the shots in place of DeMeco Ryans, who became the Head Coach of the Texans. Interestingly, Wilks was an import rather than an in-house option, which has its pros and cons, though the 54-year-old eventually became acclimated to a unit that was the league’s finest in 2022. Under his direction, the Niners ranked third in run defense (89.7), fourteenth against the pass (214.2), and fifth in takeaways (28), though they weren’t quite as impressive from a situational sense, yielding a generous 40.9% success rate on third down (24th Overall) and a middling 54.5 red zone percentage (16th Overall). This group still ended up with four Pro-Bowlers, including (All-Pro Linebacker) Fred Warner, who led the team with 132 tackles, along with four interceptions and forced fumbles apiece. (Reigning Defensive Player of the Year) Nick Bosa logged 10.5 sacks and thirty-five QB hits, while (Defensive Tackle) Javon Hargrave made quite the impact after coming over from Philadelphia with seven sacks and and fourteen hits of the passer.

From a betting perspective, the 49ers may have finished the campaign with a 12-5 record straight-up, but they haven’t been nearly as rewarding against the spread, posting a 9-7-1 mark. Unlike the Packers, this is a team that has been laying points all over the place as favorites in literally EVERY game this season. San Francisco was favored by 9.5 or more points on SEVEN occasions, including tonight, which shows just how much deference that the oddsmakers have given to the NFC’s number one seed. That is part of the reason when there is such a disparity between their SU/ATS ledgers, but they have proven more than capable of covering such large spreads, owning a 4-2 record when favored by double-digits. Now, brace yourselves for a wave of varying trends that may or may not inform your decision to wager up Shanahan & Co. tonight. First, the Niners are quite at home at this stage of the playoffs, covering SIX consecutive Divisional Round contests. Second, they also fancy performing on Saturdays, with FIVE straight covers on this particular day of the week. However, on the opposite side of the coin, they have failed to cover FIVE games in a row at Levi’s Stadium, all of which have come as a favorite of at least four points. Looking at this particular matchup, these classic franchises are meeting for the seventy-third time, with the 49ers trailing the all-time series 33-38-1, though they do hold a slim advantage in the playoffs (5-4). San Francisco is 3-3 against Green Bay since Shanahan was hired back in 2017, including two very significant victories in the postseason, including the 2019 NFC Championship Game and that aforementioned 2022 Divisional Round affair at Lambeau. As we covered earlier, both Shanahan and LaFleur served as assistant coaches under the former’s father in Washington from 2011 to 2013, before getting back together in Atlanta from 2015-2016. Shanahan generally owns his former colleagues, with a commanding record of 14-7 versus the likes of McVay, LaFleur, and McDaniel. On the injury front, you would think that the 49ers would be as healthy as they could be given that they opted to rest many of their starters in the season finale and are fresh off of enjoying the bye week, but that simply is not the case. (Veteran Defensive Lineman) Arik Armstead is listed as questionable with foot and knee maladies and has thus been limited throughout the week of practice, alongside the likes of (veteran Safeties) Tashaun Gipson (quadriceps) and Logan Ryan (groin), and (Linebacker) Dre Greenlaw (Achilles). Keep in mind that this team is rather thin at Safety, with (Pro-Bowler) Talanoa Hufanga out for the duration of the postseason after tearing his ACL back in mid-November. Looking ahead, a win tonight over Green Bay would send the Niners to their NINETEENTH NFC Championship Game in franchise history, which is the most in league history, where they will meet either the Bucs or Lions, whom they will be sizeable favorites against.

Projected Outcome: 49ers 34, Packers 22