NFL Playoffs: Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

What is commonly referred to as the best weekend of football kicks off this evening from Charm City, as the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens look to punch their ticket to the AFC Championship Game as they play host to the surging young Houston Texans, who have been nothing short of a revelation in the first season of their bold, new era. In case you were wondering, the term revelation is not hyperbole when discussing the Texans (10-7, 1st in AFC South), it is apropos, for you would be hard-pressed to find a team that has improved as exponentially as they have. Just a year ago, Houston stumbled to their third consecutive losing campaign (3-13-1), capping an era of ineptitude in which they held the worst record in the league at 11-38-1 (.220). During that time, the franchise was mired in the ongoing saga of the aforementioned Watson, whom they subsequently traded to Cleveland following a year-long suspension imposed by the team and cycled through four different Head Coaches (including one interim), while (General Manager) Nick Caserio, who was hired following the 2020 term, struggling to lure any of his initial targets to Southern Texas. Thankfully, he hit a home run with the hiring of (Head Coach) DeMeco Ryans, who was fresh off of coordinating the number one defense in the league in the form of the 49ers. Of course, this marked a homecoming for Ryans, who played the first six years of his career with the franchise that drafted him back in 2006, earning two Pro-Bowl nods to boot. The 39-year-old also brought a number of assistant coaches with him from San Francisco, most notably (Offensive Coordinator) Bobby Slowik, who has installed the prolific scheme that has made their former employers the envy of the league. Of course, you need players to make any system work, and the Texans struck gold on this front too, particularly in the 2023 NFL Draft, where they enjoyed back-to-back selections in the first round, picking two franchise players in the process in the form of (Quarterback) C.J. Stroud and (Edge-Rusher) Will Anderson Jr. Of the two, Stroud (pictured below) has been nothing short of sensational, particularly when you consider that the Panthers opted to pass on his talents at number one overall. Needless to say, their error has been Houston’s gain, as the Ohio State product has shattered expectations in completing 63.9% of his passes for an average of 273.9 yards per game, the highest figure in the NFL, on a healthy 7.03 net yards per attempt, with twenty-three touchdowns opposed to just five interceptions, leading to a QBR of 57.4. His ability to throw accurately from multiple arm angles to all three areas of the field, while exhibiting excellent movement skills within and outside the pocket, makes him a passer well ahead of schedule, which in turn has accelerated the growth of this team exponentially. These skills were on full display in last weekend’s stunning 45-14 demolition of the Browns on Wild Card Weekend, as the rookie eviscerated what was statistically the top defense in the NFL. Hell, Cleveland thumped Houston just three weeks prior to this rematch at NRG, a 22-36 affair in which both Stroud (concussion) and Anderson were sidelined with injuries. Well, their return would ensure that the second first would not be anything like the first, as the signal-caller came out firing, tossing three touchdowns in the first half, including a 76-yard bomb to (young Tight End) Brevin Jordan early in the second period. When it was all said and done, Stroud completed an efficient 16-of-21 passes for 274 yards and those three scores, while suffering ZERO sacks along the way. (Veteran Tailback) Devin Singletary rushed for sixty-six yards and a touchdown on thirteen carries, while (emerging Wideout) Nico Collins reeled in six receptions on seven targets for ninety-six yards and a score of his own. Ryans’ defense also bounced back nicely after Cleveland’s Joe Flacco unleashed an onslaught of deep balls in their previous encounter, sacking the veteran passer on four occasions and hitting him seven times, while logging a pair of interceptions on back-to-back possessions, with each returned to the house. They also turned the Browns away on fourth down FOUR times, while limiting their rushing attack to just fifty-six yards on twenty carries as the gulf between the sides continued to grow. The victory was Houston’s first since besting the Bills in the 2019 Wild Card Round and only their fifth in franchise history, though it should be noted that they have NEVER progressed past the Division Round before.

From a betting perspective, the Texans have been an unexpectedly rewarding side both straight-up and against the spread this season, posting an 11-7 record for the former and 10-8 for the latter. As was the case in last weekend’s blowout of the Browns, this is a team that has really made the betting community some money as an underdog. When receiving points from the oddsmakers, Houston is 7-3 thus far, including SIX outright victories as a dog, which is the most in the NFL this season. With that being said, this evening’s return to Baltimore marks only the third time they have been a dog of more than five points (2-1 ATS). Ironically, the 9.5 points that they find themselves receiving today is identical to that of their previous meeting with the Ravens, a 9-25 defeat back in the opener. Both teams started slowly, particularly the visitors, who turned their opening march over on downs, before punting on the next two possessions. It was evident that Stroud was still very much trying to figure things out in the first start of what quickly became a stellar rookie campaign, producing 15-play and 11-play drives just before halftime, though was nonetheless forced to settle for a pair of field goals. The second half would see more of the same, with only one more field goal to show for their troubles bookended by two more turnovers on downs and a lost fumble by the Pro-Bowler, who suffered five sacks, was hit on ten occasions, and pressured a total of fourteen times. In the end, both teams were held below 300 yards of offense, including 268 for Ryans’ troops, with a plethora of penalties keeping either side from finding much of a rhythm; Baltimore and Houston combined for TWENTY-TWO penalties for a loss of 194 yards. The difference though was the fact that the hosts managed to finish a few of their drives with touchdowns, while the visiting side ultimately failed to breach the end zone altogether. Stroud would go on to complete 28-of-44 passes for 242 yards, while scrambling for another twenty yards on four carries, and even catching a pass that was deflected to himself. The aforementioned Collins led the Receiving Corps with six catches on eleven targets for eighty yards, while (veteran Wideout) Robert Woods added fifty-seven yards on six receptions of his own. (Edge-Rushers) Jonathan Greenard and the aforementioned Anderson each logged a sack, with a combined three hits and pressures of the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson (much more on him shortly), while (veteran Cornerback) Steven Nelson logged the first of his four interceptions of the season. That opening defeat was their eighth in ten meetings with Baltimore dating back to 2010 (4-6 ATS), a stretch that includes a 13-20 loss in the Division Round of the 2011 Playoffs, which was also contested at M&T Bank Stadium. On the injury front, (veteran defenders) Jerry Hughes and Denzel Perryman are both listed as questionable for this evening’s rematch in Charm City due to ankle and rib soreness, though are expected to suit up after taking light reps throughout the week of practice. Looking ahead, an upset of the top-seeded Ravens would propel these Texans to a new frontier, as they would be participating in their first ever AFC Championship Game, though it remains to be seen if they will be playing at the Chiefs or Bills next Sunday.

Meanwhile, it is hard to imagine this season having played out more ideally for the Ravens (13-4, 1st in AFC North), who have clinched the number one overall seed in the AFC for just the second time in franchise history. Of course, it was only a year ago in which this organization found themselves at a proverbial crossroads. (Former MVP Quarterback) Lamar Jackson suffered a knee injury in early December and missed the final four games of the campaign, including a narrow 17-24 loss at the Bengals on Wild Card Weekend, with the lingering black cloud of his free agency permeating through every corridor of the franchise. (Head Coach) John Harbaugh and (General Manager) Eric DeCosta were locked in a prolonged stalemate with their QB for months, before both sides eventually came to an agreement on a lucrative 5-year, $260 million contract, including a $72.5 million signing bonus and $185 million in total guarantees, the most ever in NFL history. On the gridiron, Baltimore did everything within their power to make the offense more inviting for Jackson (pictured below), offloading (former Offensive Coordinator) Greg Roman in favor of the more balanced approach of Todd Monken, while bolstering a long-neglected Receiving Corps with (22nd Overall Pick) Zay Flowers alongside (veteran pass-catchers) Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor. The result was a familiar, yet more balanced attack, that despite ranking first in both rushing attempts (31.8) and yards (156.5) has proven that they can indeed make plays when they take to the air. Under Monken’s direction, the Ravens attempted the third-fewest passes in the league (29.0) leading to 228.3 yards per game (21st Overall), though it was more about what they did when they did decide to let it fly, logging a healthy 6.79 net yards per attempt, the fifth-highest figure. As for Jackson, he turned in his finest campaign as a passer, posting career-bests in completion percentage (67.2%), yards (3,678), and yards per attempt (8.0), while tossing twenty-four touchdowns opposed to just seven interceptions, with a QBR of 64.7. Mind you, he remains an absolute rushing threat with over 800 yards on the ground for the fifth consecutive season, though he has shown a propensity for being more comfortable within the pocket, posting personal-bests in average pocket time (2.7 seconds) and pressure percentage (15.7%). Around him, Flowers proved to be quite a find, with the diminutive joystick leading the team in receptions (88), receiving yards (858), and touchdowns (5), while Beckham has successfully revitalized his career after missing all of last season recovering from a torn ACL, hauling in thirty-five catches, 565 yards and three scores. With all that being said, this team’s success can only be partly attributed to the evolution of the offense, for the defense has been dominant throughout the campaign. In his second year calling plays (Defensive Coordinator) Mike McDonald has established himself as one of the hot young profiles of this current coaching cycle, with his unit shipping the fewest points in the NFL (16.5), while ranking sixth in total yards allowed (301.3), first in takeaways (31), seventh on third down (36.4%), and second within the red zone (40.8%). This group has made a habit of pummeling the opposition, having recently relegated the likes of the Jaguars, 49ers, and Dolphins to a combined forty-five points in successive weeks. In the case of San Francisco and Miami, to teams billed as Super Bowl contenders, Baltimore outscored them by margin of FIFTY-ONE points, forcing the former into four turnovers on Christmas Day in Santa Clara, before hanging a 50-burger on the latter a week later at M&T Bank Stadium. All of those takeaways have helped drive their success, with Harbaugh’s troops enjoying a very healthy +7 turnover differential in those two affairs alone. Now, with the proverbial book closed on the regular season, these blackbirds will be looking to reverse their misfortunes in the playoffs, where they have not tasted victory since the 2014 Wild Card Weekend. Jackson is just 1-3 in four postseason starts, completing 55.9% of his throws for an average of 225.0 yards on just 5.08 net yards per attempt with more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (3), while rushing for a whopping 91.8 yards per contest, but with one touchdown opposed to five fumbles.

From a betting perspective, the Ravens have been by far and away one of the most rewarding teams to wager upon this season, finishing the campaign with the best straight-up record in the NFL (13-6), while posting a stellar 11-6 mark against the spread to boot. Whereas their opponent has feasted upon receiving points from the oddsmakers, Baltimore has been the opposite, owning a 9-5 record when laying points as a favorite, though they are 2-3 when they have found themselves favored by more sizable margins of six points or greater. This is relevant for this particular matchup, for they are once again favored by 9.5 points at home against the Texans, which as we covered earlier, was the same case back in Week One. Sloppy and disjointed would be the best way to describe this one, folks, as the offense would spend the first month of the campaign finding their footing with the aforementioned Monken calling plays. The hosts only managed 265 total yards on the day, hampered in large part to a series of self-inflicted wounds, including a season high THIRTEEN penalties for a loss of 106 yards. With that being said, as they have on so many occasions in the past when the passing game failed to gain traction, they simply put their heads down and pounded the rock. Harbaugh’s troops rushed for 110 yards and three touchdowns on thirty-two carries, the latter two scores coming courtesy of (young Tailback) Justice Hill, who four months later is one of the only healthy options that remain available in the Backfield. All eyes were fixated upon Jackson though, with the newly-minted $260 million man making his first start within Monken’s scheme. Simply put, it was a mixed bag for the MVP frontrunner, who completed an efficient 17-of-22 passes for just 169 yards and an interception, though still managed to lead the team with thirty-eight rushing yards on six carries. Indeed, it was apparent that Jackson was still trying to figure things out, as he was sacked four times and fumbled twice, losing one late in the third quarter. The aforementioned Flowers showed glimpses of the playmaker that he would grow into, hauling in nine receptions on ten targets for seventy-eight yards. Fortunately, McDonald’s defense handled their business, thwarting Houston time and time again despite their many ventures into the hosts’ territory, turning them away on fourth down twice and strip-sacking Stroud to boot. (Defensive Tackle) Justin Madubuike logged the first of his career-high thirteen sacks on that day, earning him his first Pro-Bowl nod in a contract year no less. On the injury front, the Ravens have a slew of questionable listed for this evening’s tilt with the Texans, including (Guard) Kevin Zeitler (knee/quad), (Safety) Kyle Hamilton (knee), (Safety) Geno Stone (knee), (Wideout) Devin Duvernay (back), (Cornerback) Marlon Humphrey (calf), and Flowers (calf), though all are expected to give it a go after many of them sat out the season finale against the Steelers before enjoying the luxury of last weekend’s bye. However, the most notable turn of events came with the return of (perennial Pro-Bowl Tight End) Mark Andrews, who was recalled from injured reserve earlier in the week from a nasty ankle injury that was initially expected to have ended his season altogether. With 544 yards and six touchdowns in just ten games, his return would return another dimension to this growing passing attack, which would be a boon to Baltimore as they face stronger opposition. Looking ahead, a win this evening would propel Harbaugh & Co. to their fifth AFC Championship Game in franchise history, awaiting the winner of Kansas City and Buffalo tomorrow evening.

Projected Outcome: Ravens 30, Texas 13