Holiday Bowl: (15) Louisville vs USC

The bowl season continues with aplomb as the Holiday Bowl is up next featuring a pair of teams regsiding on opposite ends of the spectrum of expectations, as the (No. 15) Louisville Cardinals battle the USC Trojans tonight from Petco Park in San Diego, California. Coming into this season, many struggled with what to make of Louisville (10-3, 7-2 in ACC), who moved on from (former Head Coach) Scott Satterfield and replaced him with former Quarterback and Offensive Coordinator, Jeff Brohm. Of course, Brohm (pictured below) shocked many by stepping down from his post at Purdue following strong 9-4 and 8-5 campaigns, which included a trip to the BIG 10 Championship Game in 2022. However, the allure of returning home proved to be too strong for the 52-year-old, as the Louisville native is part of a dynasty that has stretched decades at the university. Brohm was a Quarterback under (legendary HC) Howard Schnellenberger from 1989 to 1993, and would later return to campus as a member of Bobby Petrino’s staff in 2003, serving as QB Coach (2003-2006), Passing Game Coordinator (2007), and Offensive Coordinator (2008), before finally leaving the state of Kentucky for various jobs at Florida Atlantic, UAB, Illinois, and Western Kentucky, where he would earn his first HC gig. After three successful seasons with the Hilltoppers, he landed at Purdue, whereas we stated earlier, he turned the Boilermakers back into a competitive program. So, how did this latest return to his alma mater turn out, you ask? Well, we feel like even the most hopeful of Cardinals fan could have thought that they would be this successful in his first year back on campus, as the redbirds are on the verge of earning their first 11-win season since the end of the Charlie Strong era (2012-2013). Strong on both sides of the football, Brohm’s troops averaged 30.9 points per game (45th in FBS) on 419.3 total yards, including 244.0 yards through the air and another 175.3 on the ground, while shipping just 19.7 points (21st in FBS) on 307.4 total yards, including 102.0 yards on the ground on a mere 3.3 yards per carry. (California transfer) Jack Plummer immediately took to Brohm’s aggressive downfield approach to the passing game, completing 63.5% of his throws for 3,063 yards on 8.3 yards per attempt, with twenty-one touchdowns opposed to twelve interceptions. The son of Jake Plummer, he originally played for Brohm at Purdue, before taking advantage of the Transfer Portal, which allowed for a reunion at Louisville this Fall. It appears that Brohm has once again tapped into the Portal to find a new starting signal-caller, as Tyler Shough will be arriving in the Spring. Having spent time at Oregon and Texas Tech, the 24-yar-old failed to find his footing in Eugene and Lubbock, but has the size and arm strength to succeed in what should be the final stop of his collegiate career. When we last saw the Cardinals, they backed into the ACC Championship Game where they eventually met defeat at the hands of (No. 4) Florida State, who were without the top two Quarterbacks on their depth chart due to injury. While (Co-Defensive Coordinator) Mark Hagan and Ron English watched their charges relegate the Seminoles to 220 total yards, twelve first downs, and a scant fifty-five passing yards on 8-of-21 attempts, their cohorts on the opposite side of the football were utterly unable of making much happen against one of the toughest defenses in the country. How bad was it for Plummer & Co, you ask? How about two field goals, 188 total yards, and ten first downs, folks? Indeed, Plummer had a rough day at the office, completing 14-of-36 passes for 111 yards with an interception, while suffering SEVEN sacks and countless other pressures to boot. Granted, FSU had the added motivation of needing to win to complete a perfect season and keep their hopes of reaching the Playoff alive, but it was awfully telling that they still managed to manhandle Louisville even with a third-string QB.

From a betting perspective, Louisville may have finished a surprising 10-3 this Fall, but they weren’t nearly as rewarding to those wagering on them, posting a mediocre 6-6 record against the spread. The Cardinals alternated non-covers and covers over the first eight games, though did begin to build some momentum with three covers in four games, though they ultimately failed to do in their final two outings, a 31-38 loss at home against (instate rival) Kentucky (-7.5), before falling to shorthanded Florida State (+1) in that aforementioned ACC Championship Game. Under the leadership of Brohm, this is a team that is 5-6 against the spread when favored by the oddsmakers, while going 2-2 in that regard versus non-conference opponents. Interestingly, the redbirds have covered four consecutive Wednesday games, while covering as many in a row after rushing for less than 100 yards in the previous outing. Furthermore, as their middling record against the spread would suggest, they have bounced back well following a straight-up defeat, posting a 6-1 record in their last seven contests after suffering such a loss, which is absolutely the case tonight. Louisville is 11-12-1 all-time in bowl games, posting a 5-4 mark in their last nine postseason affairs. Their most recent appearance was a successful one in last Winter’s Fenway Bowl, which saw them handle (former Conference USA rival) Cincinnati in a 24-7 victory. With the battle deadlocked 7-7 early in the second quarter, the Cardinals went on to score the final seventeen points of the afternoon, as (Junior Tailback) Jawhar Jordan ripped off huge touchdown runs of forty-nine and forty-one yards. When it was all said and done, they dominated the Bearcats across the board, particularly in total yards (419-127), first downs (24-10), and rushing yards (287-44). In all honesty, the final score didn’t begin to describe just how lopsided this game really was, as the ‘Ville committed FOUR turnovers on the day as (Quarterbacks) Brock Domann and Braden Smith each tossed an interception. Thankfully the ground game took care of this one, as Jordan piled up 115 yards and those two scores on just nine carries, while (Sophomore Tailback) Maurice Turner led the way with 160 yards on thirty-one rushes. Looking at who may or may not be participating in tonight’s showdown in San Diego, the following players have opted out and entered the Transfer Portal: (Defensive Linemen) Ryheem Craig, Victoine Brown, Yirayah Lanier, and Popeye Williams, (Linebackers) Kameron Wilson and Jackson Hamilton, and (Defensive Backs) Josh Minkins, Marquis Groves-Killebrew, and Derrick Edwards. Furthermore, the aforementioned Jordan is listed as questionable to compete in this Holiday Bowl due to an undisclosed ailment suffered in the ACC Championship Game. Looking forward, as we discussed earlier, Brohm has already hit the Transfer Portal to replace outgoing stars, while bringing in what should be a fruitful recruiting class to build upon his stellar return to his alma mater.

Meanwhile, as their opponent tonight was one of the many pleasant surprises of the Fall, USC (7-5, 5-4 in Pac-12) was undoubtedly one of the biggest disappointments in crashing out of the rankings altogether during a miserable second half of their schedule. After an 11-3 finish in his first season at Southern Cal, much was expected of (Head Coach) Lincoln Riley to propel the Trojans to the status of playoff contender, which was more than reasonable given the return of (2022 Heisman winner) Caleb Williams, buoyed by a host of talented playmakers and yet another praised recruiting class. Coming into this season, they were ranked fifth overall by the Associated Press and remained among the nation’s elite as they won each of their first six contests. However, alarming issues on the defensive side of the football that began late last season began to reveal themselves once again, as (Defensive Coordinator) Alex Grinch’s unit relinquished forty-one points apiece in back-to-back victories over Colorado and Arizona. Those leaks eventually sprung into full-blown chasms, as USC would go on to drop all but ONE of their final six games, a period in which Grinch was finally relieved of his duties. So, how bad did it get for the Trojans, you ask? Well, as they faced the better teams within the competitive Pac-12, their defense shipped 29.2 points per game on an untenable 456.3 total yards, in which they logged just six takeaways, though four of them came in a 50-49 victory over lowly Cal. Simply put, this team was so poor on this side of the football that Williams & Co couldn’t overcome said shortcomings; the offense was more than potent in averaging a prolific 41.8 points per game (4th in FBS) on 469.7 total yards, while Williams was responsible for FORTY-ONE touchdowns and 3,775 total yards. We have a feeling that Riley (pictured below) will be regretting the decision not to part ways with Grinch, who arrived with him from Oklahoma last season, earlier than he did, for it appears that this team wasted the considerable talents of Williams, who many have proclaimed a generational playmaker. With that being said, the question that Riley must answer is how he will make this right? Ironically, the 40-year-old didn’t look far for Grinch’s replacement, hiring D’Anton Lynn from rivals, UCLA. Lynn, the son of former Chargers’ Head Coach Anthony Lynn, helmed what was one of the stingier defenses in the country this Fall, with the Bruins permitting the fewest points in the Pac-12 (18.4) and the eighth-fewest yards per play in the country (4.55), while counting themselves as one of only eleven teams in to allow less than 300 total yards per game. Despite his age, the 34-year-old has a wealth of NFL coaching experience to boot, featuring stints with the Bills, Chargers, Texans, and Ravens before joining Chip Kelly’s staff in Los Angeles. Hell, he must have made quite the impression when they crossed paths in the season finale; UCLA held USC to twenty points, 387 total yards, and a season-low seventeen first downs, while forcing three turnovers in an 18-point victory at the Coliseum. They also did a number on Williams, who completed 31-of-42 passes for 384 yards, though limited him to just one touchdown with an interception, four sacks, and a forced fumble. Joining Lynn on this side of the football will be (former Houston DC) Doug Belk and (North Dakota State HC) Matt Entz to be the new Defensive Backs and Linebackers Coaches, with the latter a notable hire given that he won a pair of FCS National Titles and four more as their Defensive Coordinator. Will this be enough to resolve these lingering issues? Riley & Co had better hope so, lest they be in for a rude awakening once they begin their first season as members of the BIG 10 next Fall.

From a betting perspective, USC didn’t just finish a disappointing 7-5 straight-up this season, but they were also one of the least-rewarding teams in the country with a 3-9 record against the spread. After covering two of their first three games, the Trojans only covered ONE of the remaining NINE games left on the schedule, and that came as 16.5-point underdog at (No. 6) Oregon, which was coincidentally the most points that they had been granted by the oddsmakers since Riley arrived in Los Angeles last Fall. The problem for those betting on this group is that they were obscenely large favorites for half of the season, facing spreads of 20+ points in each of the first six contests. However, their porous defense prohibited them from slowing down the better teams that they faced down the stretch within the Pac-12 even with that high-powered attack to fall back on. Given the number of opt-outs for this game tonight, USC finds themselves as an underdog for just the fifth time under Riley, having split the previous four tilts against the spread. Under the skipper’s leadership, this is a team that is 11-15 against the spread overall, including 4-3 versus non-conference opponents. Furthermore, the Trojans are just 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games when receiving points from the oddsmakers, while generally struggling in these postseason affairs as they have failed to cover SIX consecutive bowl games. Last Winter in Riley’s first bowl with Southern Cal, they clearly didn’t take Tulane seriously in a 45-46 loss in the Cotton Bowl, which saw the Green Wave rally back from a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter, aided by a safety and capped by a touchdown pass with just nine seconds remaining. This one only fueled the criticism of the aforementioned Grinch, whose unit was gashed for 539 total yards, including 305 on the ground. It was simply too much for Williams to overcome despite completing 37-of-52 passes for 462 yards, FIVE touchdowns and an interception. All-time, USC is a stellar 35-21 (.625) straight-up in bowls, though they have dropped four of their last five such contests. Looking at who will and won’t be participating in this Holiday Bowl, the list is quite long: both Williams and (Junior Wideout) Brenden Rice are opting out this game after declaring for the NFL Draft, while the likes of (Receivers) Mario Williams and Michael Jackson III, (Left Tackle) Michael Tarquin, (Edge-Rusher) Korey Foreman, (Linebackers) Tackett Curtis, (Cornerback) Domani Jackson, and most notably (former number one overall recruit) Malachi Nelson all entering the Transfer Portal. Looking ahead, Riley won’t have the benefit of many returning starters next Fall, though that may be for the best given how poorly they performed over the second half of the campaign. With that being said, a rebuilt defensive coaching staff should provide optimism along with what is expected to be another fruitful recruiting class to bolster these Trojans as they make the transition to the BIG 10.

Projected Outcome: Louisville 27, USC 17