CFP Semifinal: Texas vs Washington

While points may be at a premium in today’s other National Semifinal, that likely won’t be the case in tonight’s Sugar Bowl, as the (No. 3) Texas Longhorns battle the undefeated (No. 2) Washington Huskies, with both teams frothing at the mouth for the opportunity to advance to next Monday Night’s National Championship Game. Over the last twelve years, we have heard repeated whispers that “Texas (12-1, 9-1 in BIG XII) is back”, only to see those rumors ultimately proven to be a hoax. From 2010 to 2021, this is a program that found itself stuck in neutral, with just one 10-win campaign to their credit and zero BIG XII Titles or appearances in the College Football Playoff to show for it. Furthermore, the premier football program in the Lone Star State fell behind many of their counterparts, which was an indictment on the atmosphere in Austin. After all, how in the hell could the likes of Texas A&M, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston keep outrecruiting and outperforming the Longhorns? That question ultimately cost (former Head Coaches) Mack Brown, Charlie Strong, and Tom Herman their jobs, with that same question posed to (Head Coach) Steve Sarkisian when he was hired in 2021. Fresh off coordinating an explosive offense for (reigning National Champion) Alabama, Sarkisian set out to successfully rebuild the ‘Horns, with designs on being capable of not only competing in the BIG XII (and eventually the SEC), but for National Titles as well, which many in the state feel should be the standard. Fortunately for everyone involved, Coach Sark has done just that. Recruiting? Check. Player development? Check. Success on the gridiron? Absolutely. No matter how you look at it, 2023 has proven to be a MASSIVE success for Texas, who earned their first BIG XII Title in fourteen years and their last as a member of the conference, thus making the leap to their first playoff appearance since the advent of the CFP in 2014. With sixteen returning starters, this team improved greatly on both sides of the football, with an experienced offense averaging 36.2 points (15th in FBS) on 475.9 total yard per game, and an athletic defense that has shipped just 17.5 points (11th in FBS) on 321.7 total yards. (Ohio State transfer) Quinn Ewers showed flashes in his first season in Austin, but really found his rhythm this Fall, completing an efficient 70.7% of his throws for 3,161 yards on 9.0 yards per attempt, with twenty-one touchdowns opposed to just six interceptions, while also proving to be subtle threat with his legs in the red zone where he rushed for five more scores. If not for a shoulder injury suffered at Houston that cost him two games, Ewers (pictured below) could very well have been invited to the Heisman ceremony. Behind a veteran Offensive Line, the Junior has spread the wealth to a plethora of playmakers, including (Receivers) Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell, who combined for 155 receptions, 1,782 yards, and fifteen touchdowns, along with Ja’Tavion Sanders, who logged thirty-nine catches for 607 yards and a pair of scores. Defensively, Sarkisian is making sure that he has plenty of SEC-caliber talent in the trenches, which will be the key for this matchup with Washington; the Longhorns amassed eighty-two tackles for loss and thirty-two sacks this season, while forcing twenty-three takeaways, including sixteen interceptions. At 6’4″ 355 pounds, (Senior Defensive Tackle) T’Vondre Sweat is a load to handle in the trenches, while (fellow Linemen) Anthony Hill, Byron Murphy, and Ethan Burke each logged 5+ sacks. These monsters will be asked to apply pressure upon a Quarterback that was sacked the fewest times in the country, which should make for an entertaining game within the game. When we last saw Texas, they hammered (No. 19) Oklahoma State in a 49-21 coronation for their final BIG XII as a member of the conference, which was nothing short of a dominant performance from Sarkisian’s charges. The Longhorns outgained the Cowboys 662-281 in total yards, including a 198-31 advantage in rushing yards. Ewers & CO churned out THRITY-THREE first downs, with the gunslinger completing a surgical 35-of-46 passes for 452 yards, four touchdowns and an interception. Both Sanders and Mitchell hauled in 100+ yards and a score, while the aforementioned Sweat even got in on the fun, lining up in a special red zone package for a 2-yard score at the end of the first quarter. Defensively, the ‘Horns relegated the Pokes to just thirteen first downs, with Hill getting a sack and a forced fumble. This performance, coupled with an eye-opening 34-24 victory at (No. 4) Alabama back in early September, was a huge reason for all the chaos during the final selection process for this year’s Playoff.

From a betting perspective, Texas may come into this National Semifinal with a sterling 12-1 record, but they have been just about average against the spread, posting a 7-6 mark in that regard. After getting off to a hot start in covering three of their first five contests, the Longhorns fell into a malaise on this front, as they went on to cover just one of their next five outings. Keep in mind that this dip in form coincided with shoulder suffered by Ewers in a narrow 31-24 victory over Houston. Thankfully, they have managed to right the ship with three consecutive covers in as many games, including that 49-21 drubbing of Oklahoma State in the BIG XII Championship Game. Under Sarkisian’s direction, this is a program that is 20-18 against the spread, including 6-4 in non-conference games. The ‘Horns have also made a habit of rising to the occasion against good teams, owning a 4-0-1 record against the spread in their last five tilts versus opponents over .500. Looking at this particular matchup, these schools have met on just five occasions dating back to 1974, with Texas taking three of them straight-up. However, there is a far more recent encounter that should inform us as to what we can expect in tonight’s Sugar Bowl, as these teams met roughly a year ago in the 2022 Alamo Bowl. The Longhorns (-3) would come up just short in this 20-27 affair, despite a late rally; the BIG XII residents trailed 10-27 early in the fourth quarter, though managed to cut the deficit to seven points after a short touchdown run from (Sophomore Tailback) Jonathon Brooks followed by a 26-yard field goal courtesy of (Sophomore Kicker) Bert Auburn. Unfortunately, it wouldn’t be enough, as (Defensive Coordinator) Pete Kwiatkowski’s unit couldn’t slow down the Huskies, who torched them on a balanced 445 total yards, which forced Ewers & Co to abandon the run altogether and throw the ball over and over again to get back into it. As a result, the Sophomore QB completed 31-of-47 passes for 369 yards, and a touchdown, linking up with Worthy for seven receptions and eighty-four yards, while (Sophomore Wideout) Casey Cain erupted for 108 yards on four catches. Kwiatkowski’s Defensive Line struggled to get pressure on Michael Penix (much more on him in a bit), as they failed to register a single sack or tackle for loss, though (Junior Safety) Jerrin Thompson did manage to intercept the Washington Quarterback. On the injury front, Brooks is out for this contest and any that may follow in this Playoff due to a torn ACL suffered back in mid-November. This is notable for the fact that he led the team in rushing with 1,139 yards and ten touchdowns, while also proving to be quite the threat in the passing game with twenty-five receptions for 286 yards and another score. (Underclassmen) C.J. Baxter and Jayden Blue will carry the load in his stead. (Defensive Backs) Ryan Watts and Austin Jordan are both listed as questionable to participate in this National Semifinal with undisclosed maladies, while the aforementioned Worthy is in the same boat with an ailing leg. Looking ahead, a win tonight will propel Texas to their first National Championship Game since 2009, which began their 12-year malaise. Ironically, they could find themselves matched up with none other than Alabama, who defeated them in that BCS Championship, 37-21, kicking off their dynasty under Sarkisian’s former employer, Nick Saban.

Meanwhile, the most overlooked team in this year’s Playoff is easily Washington (13-0, 9-0 in PAC-12), though that really shouldn’t be the case. While it had earned a reputation for being a soft conference in recent years, the PAC-12 was arguably the best league in the country this Fall, what with six of its number regularly occupying a place in the AP Poll. The fact that these Huskies managed to pilot through such an arduous path, which included six ranked opponents, four of which were ranked in the Top-10 at the time, including TWO victories over (No. 8) Oregon, should cement their status as one of the four best teams in the country. In just his second season in Seattle, (2023 Coach of the Year) Kalen DeBoer has done a tremendous job in rebuilding a program that really fell off the rails after the departure of (former HC) Chris Petersen, recruiting his ass off and making full use of the Transfer Portal. Alongside (Offensive Coordinator) Ryan Grubb, he has cultivated the most formidable passing attack in the country, built on the arm of (Heisman finalist) Michael Penix Jr., who has reinvented himself since transferring to UW. Despite flashes of greatness, injuries ultimately prevented him from reaching his potential during his four years at Indiana, though that has not been the case at Washington, where in two seasons he has thrown for a staggering 8,891 yards and SIXTY-FOUR touchdowns. This Fall, Penix (pictured below) has been the trigger man for an attack that has averaged 37.7 points (10th in FBS) on 469.1 total yards, including 343.8 through the air on 9.24 yards per attempt. The lefty has been the recipient of excellent pass-protection from 2023 recipients of the Joe Moore award, which goes to the nation’s best collective Offensive Line, who conceded just NINETEEN sacks (1st in FBS). If not for the exploits of Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr, (Junior Wideout) Rome Odunze would be billed as the top Receiver in the country, providing his Quarterback with a physical 6’3″ target that has plenty of speed and runs precise routes. Since Penix arrived, Odunze has hauled in 156 receptions for 2,573 yards and twenty touchdowns, including 1,428 yards and thirteen scores this Fall. However, he is far from the only weapon in the Huskies’ arsenal, with (fellow Wideouts) Ja’Lynn Polk (1,000 yards, 8 TD) and Jalen McMillan (468 yards, 3 TD) along with (Junior Tailback) Dillon Johnson (1,113 yards, 14 TD). When we last saw Washington, they too captured their final conference title as a member of said league, upsetting Oregon in a 34-31 affair. DeBoer’s troops took it to the Ducks from the opening kickoff, racing out to a 20-3 lead on the strength of Johnson, who rushed for a touchdown at the end of the first quarter, while finding (Sophomore Receiver) Germie Bernard for a short score on a trick play midway through the second quarter. With that said, their opponent would respond with TWENTY-FOUR unanswered points to retake the lead late in the third quarter, putting the pressure back on the Huskies. Thankfully, Johnson & Co would retaliate in kind, with the Junior rushing for another score before Penix found (Senior Tight End) Quentin Moore for a short touchdown of his own to make it 34-24 with 2:44 left to play. UO would strike back in short order with a 63-yard touchdown to cut the deficit to three points, but that would be as close as they would get, as UW would run out the clock and claim their first PAC-12 Title since 2018. In the end, Washington outgained Oregon 481-363 in total yards, with the ground game churning out 157 yards and two scores on thirty-seven carries. Johnson was HUGE in bringing some balance to what has been a very pass-happy attack, accounting for all but five of those yards on twenty-eight attempts. As for Penix, he completed 27-of-39 passes for 319 yards, a touchdown and an interception, with Odunze and McMillan front and center with a combined seventeen receptions for 233 yards. That victory was their third consecutive win by three points or less, which serves as proof that this is a team that is accustomed to performing under pressure and should be well-prepared for tonight’s Sugar Bowl showdown with the Longhorns, whom they defeated little over a year ago (more on that shortly).

From a betting perspective, Washington enters this National Semifinal with a perfect 13-0 record straight-up, but they have been a VERY different team against the spread, treading water at 6-6-1 this season. After getting off to a promising 3-1 start in that latter regard, the Huskies have covered just three of their last nine games (3-5-1 ATS). Under the direction of DeBoer, these dogs are 14-11-1 against the spread since he was hired two years ago, including a 6-1 mark against non-conference opponents. This is a team that has mastered the art of winning without covering, which is because they managed to win A LOT of close games this Fall, with seven of their wins decided by seven or fewer points, including each of the last four outings. However, they did cover their most recent tilt, that aforementioned victory over Oregon in the final PAC-12 Championship Game, in which they underdogs (+10) for the first time this season. This is relevant because DeBoer’s troops are once again receiving points from the oddsmakers in this encounter with Texas, which was ironically the case in last year’s Alamo Bowl, which saw Washington best them in that 27-20 affair. After both teams traded field goals in the opening eight minutes of play, the Huskies asserted control through the rest of contest; (former Tailback) Wayne Taulapapa ripped of a 42-yard touchdown run late in the first quarter to retake the lead, while the second field goal of the half from (former Kicker) Peyton Henry ensured that the PAC-12 residents entered intermission with a 13-3 advantage. From there, the Longhorns would strike back with a long touchdown right out of halftime, but Penix & Co would respond with back-to-back passing scores, the first to the aforementioned McMillan and the second to (former Receiver) Taj Davis, which would be enough to seal the deal. In the end, UW rolled up 445 total yards on twenty-five first downs, rushing for 158 yards on twenty-eight carries, while Penix carved up the ‘Horns for 287 yards and those two touchdowns on 32-of-54 passing. Taulapapa rushed for 108 yards and that score on just fourteen carries, while McMillan and Odunze each posted 50+ receiving yards as seven different Huskies reeled in at least three catches. On the injury front, DeBoer should benefit from a largely healthy group on both sides of the football. Looking ahead, a win tonight would propel Washington to their first National Championship Game in school history, with a shot at securing their first National Title since 1991.

Projected Outcome: Washington 31, Texas 27