Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens

The penultimate weekend of the regular season is highlighted by a seismic clash at M&T Bank Stadium this afternoon, as the surging Baltimore Ravens return home to play host to the prolific Miami Dolphins in an affair packed with plenty of postseason implications, none greater than the number one seed in the AFC. Securing that prize would mean a great deal for the Dolphins (11-4, 1st in AFC East), who are enjoying their most impressive campaign in fifteen years. After advancing to the playoffs for the first time in six years in (Head Coach) Mike McDaniel’s first season with the franchise, Miami has made a sizeable leap in 2023, building upon the foundation laid last Fall. First and foremost, these Fins were one of the better offensive teams in the league last season, though have become downright LETHAL this year; they sit atop the NFL in a slew of categories, including points scored (30.9), total yards (422.4), passing yards (285.9), rushing touchdowns (26), and yards per rush (5.0). A more balanced approach (136.4 rushing yards) coupled with a clean bill of health for (fourth-year Quarterback) Tua Tagovailoa has really unlocked the lofty potential of this unit, with the young passer leading the league in completion percentage (70.5%) and passing yards (4,214). It certainly helps that McDaniel is one of the most creative play-callers in the league, utilizing a wealth of pre-snap motion in an attempt to create confusion for opposing defenses, with has been regularly exploited given the ridiculous speed that they possess at the skill positions. It is one thing to have one vertical threat on the field, but the Dolphins are capable of fielding up to FOUR of them on any given play. We’re not talking about your average, run-of-the-mill burners here, folks, for this is an attack that features arguably the four fastest players at their respective positions. (Tailbacks) Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane are home-run threats every time they touch the pigskin, with the former erupting for a franchise-record TWENTY-ONE total touchdowns, while the latter has appeared in just nine games of his rookie campaign, though has nonetheless averaged an explosive 7.9 yards per touch and scored NINE touchdowns thus far. With that being said, chief among this group is (All-Pro Receiver) Tyreek Hill, who is unquestionably the premier downfield weapon in the NFL. Sure, he was sensational during his time in Kansas City, but Hill (pictured below) has broken through his limits since being traded to South Beach. Last year, the 29-year-old posted career-highs in receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,710), though those will likely be eclipsed soon, with the 4-time All-Pro hauling in 106 catches for an NFL-best 1,641 yards and twelve scores. Simply put, his presence alone has proven enough to alter coverages and drag defenders to him, which routinely opens space for his teammates to exploit. With that being said, Miami isn’t all about offense this Fall, for they have grown over the course of the campaign under the direction (Defensive Coordinator) Vic Fangio. Since a 17-31 loss at Philadelphia, this unit has yielded 20+ points just three times, allowing an average of 15.9 points on a mere 253.8 total yards, including 181.8 yards against the pass on a scant 4.9 net yards per attempt, and 72.0 rushing yards on 3.5 yards per carry, all the while permitting a 33.3% success rate on third down, along with TWENTY-EIGHT sacks and SIXTEEN takeaways (+6). The defense played a major role in last weekend’s 22-20 victory over the Cowboys, holding up very well against one of the league’s most formidable offenses. Credit to Fangio & Co, for after Dallas struck quickly with a 49-yard touchdown after fumbling away possession on their opening drive, they held the visitors to just fifteen yards on their next four possessions, before stiffening in the red zone to permit a pair of field goals late in the second half. This contest was the kind of win that we had been waiting for from the Dolphins, who finally beat a quality opponent, and did so while playing outside of their wheelhouse; in rainy conditions, McDaniel’s troops emerged victorious despite scoring just one touchdown, a short strike from Tagovailoa to Mostert, with (veteran Kicker) Jason Sanders drilling FIVE field goals on the evening, the first three coming from 50+ yards. In the end, the hosts amassed 375 total yards on twenty-two first downs, rushed for ninety-one yards on twenty-six carries, and converted 6-of-13 third downs. Furthermore, this performance proved that this group could methodically succeed against one of the more opportunistic defenses in the league, committing just five penalties and most importantly, ZERO turnovers. Tagovailoa completed 24-of-37 passes for 293 yards and that touchdown to Mostert, who managed forty-six rushing yards on eleven attempts, with most coming in the first half thanks to an ankle/heel injury that sidelined him for the bulk of the latter two quarters. As for Hill, he came up just one yard shy of the century mark, logging nine catches on fourteen targets. The Defense sacked Dak Prescott four times, hit him on twelve occasions, and totaled fifteen pressures, with (Edge-Rushers) Andrew Van Ginkel and Bradley Chubb each posting 1.5 sacks and four pressures.

From a betting perspective, the Dolphins have been one of the most rewarding teams in the NFL this Fall, whether it has been straight-up (11-4) or against the spread (10-5). After a blistering 6-2 start on that latter front, Miami cooled off a bit with three non-covers in their next five outings, though have managed to bounce back nicely with spread victories over New York (-7) and that aforementioned showdown with Dallas (-1.5), both of which were contested at Hard Rock Stadium. While they have been a solid play at home, these Fins have been a different side on the road, covering just four of their last six outings away from South Beach. This afternoon’s matchup with feature McDaniel’s troops as an underdog for just the fourth time this season, which is notable because after outgunning the Chargers in the season opener (+3), they were bested by the Bills (+3) and Eagles (+3), with all three of those affairs played on the road. In fact, these 4.5 points are the most that the Dolphins have received from the oddsmakers since their Wild Card loss in Buffalo last January (+14), in which the club was relegated to a third-string Quarterback due to a concussion suffered by Tagovailoa. Speaking of Tua, he was healthy and VERY productive in last year’s trip to M&T Bank Stadium, torching the home side for a staggering 469 yards, SIX touchdowns on 36-of-50 passing in a wild 42-38 comeback victory. This one appeared to be a route early, and not in favor of Miami; the visitors trailed 7-28 at halftime and was outgained 166-295, as Tagovailoa was intercepted twice in the first four drives. However, the second half saw the young QB exploit holes in Baltimore’s Secondary deep downfield, hitting the speedster in stride for consecutive touchdowns of forty-eight and sixty yards respectively, a run that concluded with a short strike to (third-year Receiver) Jaylen Waddle to complete the rally and emerge victorious. In the end, this affair was the perfect advert as to what this group can do when permitted space and time; the Fins scored FIVE touchdowns on six possessions in the second half, in which they accounted for a whopping 361 of their 547 total yards on the day. Hill and Waddle combined for twenty-two receptions, 361 receiving yards and four scores, with the former totaling 190 yards and the latter logging 171. Over the course of his career, Hill has faced the blackbirds four times, reeling in twenty-seven catches for an average of 105.0 yards on a healthy 15.56 yards per reception, with three touchdowns. On the injury front, Waddle will likely miss the rest of the regular season due to a sprained ankle suffered in last weekend’s win over Dallas, but there are a number of other notable figures to keep an eye on. The Offensive Line, which has already seen both (Tackles) Connor Williams and Isaiah Wynn land on injured reserve, could possibly be without the services of Robert Hunt (hamstring), Lester Cotton (hip), Liam Eichenberg (calf), and Austin Jackson (oblique), who are all listed as questionable with various ailments. Furthermore, (starting Defensive Backs) Xavien Howard (hip), Jalen Ramsey (knee), and Jevon Holland (knee) were all limited throughout the week of practice, while the aforementioned Mostert has been nursing knee and ankle soreness for the past six weeks. Looking ahead, a win would see the Dolphins not only clinch their first AFC East Title since 2008, but also vault them ahead of the Ravens for the coveted top seed in the AFC, though they would need to defeat the Bills in next weekend’s finale in order to make that official. Of course, a loss this afternoon, coupled with a Buffalo victory over New England, would set up a winner-takes-all affair next weekend with the division crown on the line.

Meanwhile, playing the immovable object to the irresistible force of their opponent are the Ravens (12-3, 1st in AFC North), who would also benefit greatly from securing the number one seed in the conference. Granted, securing a first-round bye hasn’t been very beneficial to the Baltimore in the past; in three instances, they had been eliminated at home in the division round twice, including the only other time that they finished first overall (2019). With that being said, earning that first week of the postseason off should be goal for this team, particularly in an AFC that is littered with quality teams. However, (Head Coach) John Harbaugh’s troops have proven themselves to be a juggernaut capable of beating anyone this season, particularly with a healthy (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Lamar Jackson buoyed by the NFL’s stingiest defense. Of course, the franchise was locked within a lengthy contract standoff with Jackson (pictured below) for nearly a year, with the 26-year-old looking to reset the QB market with a fully guaranteed long-term deal. After months of contentious negotiations, Harbaugh and (General Manager) Eric DeCosta came to terms with the 2019 MVP, keeping him in Charm City for the foreseeable future with a 5-year, $260 million contract featuring a record $185 million in total guarantees. Apart from the windfall of cash, one of the reasons that Jackson opted to stay in Baltimore was the investment that the club made in the passing game after years of employing the most run-heavy scheme in the NFL. The Ravens added (veteran Receivers) Odell Beckham Jr and Nelson Agholor in free agency, while selecting (Rookie Wideout) Zay Flowers twenty-second overall in last April’s NFL Draft. However, the most notable addition has been that of (Offensive Coordinator) Todd Monken, who has brought a more balanced, conventional approach to the attack. The results speak for themselves, folks: Jackson & Co rank fourth in points (27.8) and fifth in total yards (386.0), tenth on third down (42.2%), and eighth in the red zone (59.7%). Sure, they are still the most productive rushing attack in the league (159.7), but they have been far more efficient throwing the football; despite ranking twenty-first in passing offense (226.3), Monken’s unit ranks fifth in net yards per pass attempt (6.64), with twenty touchdowns (18th Overall) in comparison to seven interceptions, fewest overall. Interestingly, Jackson has grown within the pocket, which is something that his critics have been clamoring for years for. His time in the pocket (2.7 seconds) is the most of his career, while his pressure percentage (16.1%) is a personal best. Oh, but he can still carve up opponents with his legs, rushing for 786 yards and five touchdowns on 5.5 yards per carry, though his average yardage per game (52.4) stands as his fewest since his rookie season, which is yet another sign that he is more willing to play from the pocket. Furthermore, it helps that both Beckham, healthy for the first time in years, and Flowers have emerged as dynamic playmakers downfield, accounting for 532 and 752 yards respectively, which is all the more important given the loss of (Pro-Bowl Tight End) Mark Andrews for the remainder of the season. With that being said, the opposite side of the coin has been a dominant defense that has yielded the fewest points in the league (16.3), which played a huge role in last Monday Night’s stunning 33-19 pounding of the 49ers in Santa Clara. (Defensive Coordinator) Mike McDonald’s unit forced FIVE turnovers on the night, all of but one of which were interceptions of MVP-frontrunner Brock Purdy. The Sophomore Quarterback looked like the last player selected in the NFL Draft, as he could only muster eighteen completions on thirty-two passes, with four interceptions, many of the head scratching variety, before eventually heading to the bench due to injury. His backup, (former second overall pick in 2018) would also be picked off, as the Quarterbacks were sacked a total of three times, hit on nine occasions, with eleven pressures. (Sophomore Safety) Kyle Hamilton, who has played at an All-Pro level this Fall, logged two interceptions, while (veteran Linebacker) Patrick Queen, (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Marlon Humphrey, and (veteran Safety) Marcus Williams came up with the other three picks. As for Jackson, he clearly emerged as the victor in this battle of MVP candidates, with the former holder of said award completing 23-of-35 passes for 252 yards and an interception, while rushing for another forty-five yards on seven carries. Flowers hauled in nine passes on thirteen targets for seventy-two yards and a touchdown, while (veteran Wideout) Nelson Agholor was the recipient on the other score.

From a betting perspective, the Ravens has also been VERY rewarding this Fall, posting an NFL-best 12-3 record straight-up, coupled with a stellar 10-5 mark against the spread. After getting off to a 3-2 start versus the spread this season, Baltimore has since covered SEVEN of their last ten outings, including four of their last five tilts, all of which have been outright wins. Harbaugh’s troops are 5-5 against the spread in their last ten games contested at M&T Bank Stadium, while covering six of their last four games when favored by the oddsmakers. As evidenced with last weekend’s thumping of San Francisco on Christmas Night, this is a team that regularly rises to meet tough competition, owning a stellar 7-1-1 record against the spread versus opponents with winning records. Looking at this particular matchup, revenge will likely be on the minds of many Ravens, as they look to pay the Dolphins back for the loss from last season. Simply put, Baltimore should’ve won this one going away, folks, and if the affair ended at halftime, then that certainly would have been the case. The blackbirds got started quickly and early, as (veteran Receiver) Devin Duvernay took the opening kickoff 103 yards to the house. Though they would turn the ball over on downs on their next possession following an interception of Tagovailoa, the hosts had little trouble in marching seventy-four yards downfield in eighteen plays. From there, Jackson & Co would breach the end zone on their next three consecutive drives, all of which were strikes courtesy of the former MVP, including a 75-yard bomb to (young Wideout) Rashod Bateman to build a commanding 28-7 halftime lead. However, as we detailed earlier, there was a second half to play, and it was downright disastrous for Baltimore, who were repeatedly torched downfield by the Miami’s dangerous vertical passing game, with miscommunication in the Secondary playing a large role in the collapse. In the end, the home side amassed 473 total yards on twenty-three first downs, rushed for 155 yards on twenty-five carries, and won the takeaway battle 2-0, yet still managed to meet defeat. For his trouble, Jackson was nothing short of awesome, throwing for 318 yards and three touchdowns on an efficient 21-of-29 passing, while rushing for another 199 yards, including a 79-yard sprint to the end zone late int he third quarter. Speaking of the Pompano Beach native, he generally turns up for the Dolphins, completing 69.6% of his passes for an average of 293.3 yards on a healthy 9.3 net yards per attempt, with NINE touchdowns opposed to just one interception, while adding 54.7 yards via the rush and one more score in three career meetings. On the injury front, with many of their offensive firepower languishing on injured reserve, including the likes of (Tailbacks) J.K. Dobbins (knee) and Keaton Mitchell (knee) along with the aforementioned Andrews (ankle) and Duvernay (back), it should be noted that Flowers was limited throughout the week of practice with a tender calf muscle. Hamilton is also listed as questionable after taking a knock to his knee late in that win over the Niners, with (veteran Guard) Kevin Zeitler (knee) joining him in that designation. Looking ahead, a won this afternoon would clinch the number one seed in the AFC for the Ravens, though they could still ensure that the road to Super Bowl LVIII runs through Baltimore with a win next weekend over Pittsburgh coupled with a Miami loss at Baltimore.

Projected Outcome: Ravens 24, Dolphins 20