Cotton Bowl Classic: Missouri vs Ohio State

With the new year on the horizon, the bowls just keep coming, with the Cotton Bowl Classic up next featuring the surprising (No. 9) Missouri Tigers going head-to-head with the (No. 7) Ohio State Buckeyes, from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. While there have been plenty of good stories in college football this Fall, few have been better than that of Missouri (10-2, 6-2 in SEC), who took a major leap under the direction of (Head Coach) Eli Drinkwitz, who has the program in its best standing in nearly a decade. Think about it, folks: the Tigers went 23-5 within two seasons under (former HC) Gary Pinkel, only to drop to 5-7 before the venerable skipper was forced to step down due to health issues. Of course, this coincided with their transition to the SEC, which despite being lucrative as hell, has made it all the more difficult to remain competitive, which eventually cost Pinkel’s successor (former Defensive Coordinator) Barry Odom, his job. Replacing him was Drinkwitz, who after earning a Sun Belt Championship in his lone campaign leading Appalachian State, made the sizeable move to Southeast Conference, with the intent on carving out a place for Mizzou. Needless to say, it hasn’t been easy for the 40-year-old, who went 17-19 overall and 11-15 in SEC play through his first three seasons in Columbia. Thankfully, patience has paid off for all those involved in the program, as Missouri improved by FOUR games this Fall, one of the biggest rises in the FBS. So, how did he do it, you ask? Well, let’s begin by stating that these Tigers are one of the most experienced teams in the conference this season, what with fifteen returning starters from last year’s team, including eight seniors. Drinkwitz, a disciple of Guz Malzahn and former Offensive Coordinator at both North Carolina State and Boise State, coupled with (new OC) Kirby Moore, really got the most out an offense that developed exponentially in 2023. Last Fall, this unit averaged just 24.8 points on 369.8 total yards, including 214.1 yards through the air and another 155.7 on the ground, equating to 5.4 yards per play and a turnover differential of -2. Armed with a more experienced Offensive Line and the return of (Junior Quarterback) Brady Cook, these felines sharpened their claws en route to scoring 34.1 points per contest on 442.9 total yards, including 273.5 yards via the pass and another 169.4 yards courtesy of the run, leading to 6.6 yards per play and aided by a much more palatable turnover margin of +9. Cook (pictured below) is one of the most underrated Quarterbacks in the country, completing ana efficient 66.7% of his throws for 3,189 yards on a healthy 9.1 yards per attempt, with twenty touchdowns opposed to just six interceptions, while making plenty of plays with legs in rushing for 253 yards and another scores. He developed a really strong rapport with (Sophomore Receiver) Luther Burden and (Junior Tight End) Theo Wease, with the former hauling in eighty-three receptions (second in SEC) for 1,197 yards and eight touchdowns, while the latter added forty-five catches for 639 yards and six scores of his own. (Senior Tailback) Cody Schrader also played a huge role in the attack, leading the SEC in both rushing attempts (247) and rushing yards (1,499), which promptly placed him eighth in Heisman voting as a rare Caucasian Tailback. We believe the term is unicorn? All jokes aside, this offense has given Georgia fits for about two years now, which means they could really be set light the SEC on fire come next Fall. When we last saw Missouri, they earned their tenth victory of the campaign with a 48-14 drubbing of Arkansas in Fayetteville. This one was ALL Tigers, folks, as the visitors began the affair with FORTY-ONE unanswered points, kicked off with a short touchdown run by Schrader, followed by back-to-back touchdown passes from Cook to (Freshman Tight End) Brett Norfleet, and capped by a 10-yard fumble return to the house by (Junior Defensive Tackle) Jayden Jernigan. When it was all said and done, Drinkwitz’s charges outgained the Razorbacks 370-225 in total yardage, outrushed them 258-127, and absolutely killed it from a takeaway perspective, with a +5 margin on the evening. Cook completed 12-of-20 passes for 112 yards and three touchdowns (one rushing), while Schrader trampled all over the hogs with 217 yards and a score on twenty-seven attempts. Defensively, five different Tigers logged a sack, with all of those takeaways being fumbles.

From a betting perspective, Missouri was one of the most rewarding schools in the nation this Fall, posting a 10-2 record straight-up and an 8-4 against the spread. After failing to cover their first two games of the schedule, the Tigers would go on to cover EIGHT of their final ten outings, including that season finale drubbing of Arkansas that we covered earlier. Under the leadership of Drinkwitz, this is a program that is now 24-24 against the spread, including 5-9 in non-conference contests. These cats are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games overall, while covering SEVEN of their past ten tilts as an underdog, including three straight covers when receiving points from the oddsmakers. With that being said, Mizzou has developed a reputation of struggling in the month of December, with a dismal 3-13 record versus the spread in the final month of the season. They will be participating in their thirty-sixth bowl, sporting an all-time record 15-20, which includes four consecutive defeats dating back to 2017 (1-3 ATS), with their only cover being a 22-24 loss to Army (+2) in the 2021 Armed Forces Bowl. In their most recent postseason effort, a 17-27 defeat to Wake Forest in last December’s Gasparilla Bowl, Drinkwitz’s troops overcame an early 3-14 deficit to take a 17-14 lead late int he third quarter, only to ship a 48-yard touchdown pass only a few plays later, with the Deacons tacking on another touchdown for good measure. Cook accounted for 268 total yards and a passing score, while Schrader added fifty-four yards and a rushing touchdown of his own, with (Junior Safety) Jayden Carlies logging an interception. Looking at this particular matchup, this is the first time that these schools have met on the gridiron since 1998, with the Tigers besting the Buckeyes only once (1976) in twelve all-time encounters (1-10-1 SU). As far as notable opt-outs go, Mizzou will be without the following players for this Cotton Bowl Classic: (Sophomore Wideout) Demariyon Houston, who caught the lone touchdown pass from Cook in last winter’s bowl, will be entering the Transfer Portal alongside a number of backup Offensive Linemen and Linebackers. On the injury front, (Senior Linebacker) Chad Bailey has likely played his final game with the Tigers due to an unspecified malady, while (fellow Linebacker) Ty’ron Hopper is listed as questionable with a sprained ankle. Ditto for (Sophomore Safety) Ennis Rakestraw (undisclosed). Looking ahead, this Fall saw quite a bit of improvement in Columbia, with Drinkwitz leading these cats to their first 10-win campaign in nine years. He should have fifteen returning starters back next Fall, including Cook, though the Offensive Line will need to be addressed as well as the kicking game, but other than that, the immediate future is nothing but bright for Mizzou.

Meanwhile, residing on the opposite end of the spectrum of expectations is Ohio State (11-1, 8-1 in BIG 10), who for the third season in a row failed to meet any of their annual triumvirate of objectives: beating Michigan, winning the BIG 10, and competing for a National Championship. Indeed, there are a lot of schools that would gladly take a 33-5 stretch of success, but the Buckeyes aren’t just any program, with that span serving as a disappointment in the eyes of many around Columbus. Since getting hammered by Alabama in the 2020 National Title Game, (Head Coach) Ryan Day’s troops have been overtaken by the Wolverines within the league, blocking their path to the College Football Playoff on two occasions. With that being said, this season always felt like it was going to be a bit tricky for OSU, given the volume of talent that they lost to the NFL, including (two-time Heisman finalist) C.J. Stroud and three starting Offensive Linemen. Replacing Stroud was (Junior Quarterback) Kyle McCord, who finally got his opportunity to lead the team after waiting patiently for two years. Unfortunately, for an offense that has grown increasingly more reliable on the talents of a star QB, McCord’s shortcomings became far too noticeable for the tastes of the fan base and ultimately Day himself. Since he took over for Urban Meyer back in 2018, the attack averaged no less than 41.0 points per game or 491 total yards per contest, oftentimes operating with a turnover differential of at least +6. This Fall, Ohio State scored just 32.8 points per game (32nd in FBS) on 425.0 total yards, with a turnover margin of -1. For his troubles, McCord was definitely a game manager rather than a playmaker, completing 65.8% of his passes for 3,170 yards on 9.1 yards per attempt, with twenty-four touchdowns in comparison to six interceptions, which are nearly identical the numbers posted by his counterpart in tonight’s game. However, he doesn’t offer much in terms of mobility, which was a problem early on given the inexperience of the Offensive Line and injuries in the Backfield. With that being said, he still had the services of (Heisman finalist and Biletnikoff winner) Marvin Harrison Jr. to rely upon him, which makes his lack of production all the more damning. Harrison (pictured below) grades out as the finest Receiver prospect to come out of college in many years, which is really saying something when you consider the talent that has been coming out of Columbus at that position. This season, he hauled in sixty-seven receptions for 1,211 yards and fourteen touchdowns, even adding another score on an end-around against Michigan State. There has been a lot of talk about this kid returning to OSU for his senior campaign, but given how highly the NFL values him, we’d be shocked if we didn’t hear his name called early on Draft Day come Spring. When we last saw Ohio State, they fell victim to their eternal rivals for the third year in a row, falling 24-30 in Ann Arbor back in late November. The two sides traded blows throughout the first three quarters, with the hosts eventually taking a 24-17 lead into the final stanza. From there, a Wolverines field goal would extend their lead to ten points, before McCord found Harrison for a 14-yard touchdown with just over eight minutes left to play. Unfortunately, the hosts would shorten the game with their rushing attack, kicking a field goal to lead by six points, with McCord & Co unable to reach the end zone on their final possession. In the end, the Buckeyes outgained the home side 378-338 and limited them to just eighteen first downs and a reasonable 156 rushing yards, but it was ultimately a pair of interceptions tossed by McCord that did them in. The Junior completed 18-of-30 passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns as well, with Harrison carrying the passing game on the strength of 118 yards on five receptions. Again, the turnovers proved too much for the visitors to overcome, which if we’re ready between the lines, is a major reason as to why McCord is hitting the Transfer Portal, with Syracuse being his reported destination. For all intents and purposes, Day was done with him, leading the 44-year-old in search of a more dynamic presence at Quarterback. (True Freshman) Devin Brown fits that description and will be the frontrunner for the starting job come Spring, though it remains to be seen if any high-profile transfers arrive in Columbus between now and then…

From a betting perspective, Ohio State may be 11-1 straight-up this season, but they have been far less rewarding against the spread, posting a 6-4-2 record in that regard. The Buckeyes began to hit their stride after a cold start, covering four out of five games between the middle of September and late October, though finished the regular season on a 2-3 run of covers, which included that aforementioned loss at Michigan, which was coincidentally the first time that this team had been an underdog under Day in a non-playoff affair since facing the Wolverines back in 2018 when he was promoted from Offensive Coordinator. Speaking of Day, this is a program that is 30-27-3 against the spread under his leadership, including an 8-11-1 mark in non-conference games. OSU is 6-2-2 versus the spread in their last ten games overall, while matching that record within a similar window as a favorite. For a team that is no stranger to large point spreads, tonight’s Cotton Bowl Classic will see them as a virtual pick ’em, which is a rare spot to find them in; Brutus & Co have been favored by three points or less on three times during Day’s 6-year reign in Columbus, posting a 1-1-1 record against the spread along the way. All-time, Ohio State is a middling 27-28 in bowls, winning seven of their last ten such games since the advent of the Playoff back in 2015. Interestingly, they are a perfect 4-0 in bowls not associated with the Playoff during that span, with their most recent being a 48-45 victory over Utah in the 2021 Rose Bowl. Of course, when we last saw them in the postseason, the Buckeyes fell victim to a late rally from (eventual National Champion) Georgia in last year’s National Semifinal. That 42-41 Peach Bowl affair was a classic, folks; OSU gave the reigning champs fits throughout the first half, leading 28-24 at halftime before taking a commanding 38-24 lead in the third quarter. However, the Bulldogs made the plays necessary to come back, scoring eighteen points in the final stanza, while (Senior Kicker) Noah Ruggles missed a potential 49-yard field goal to win the game. The BIG 10 denizens hung 467 total yards on the Dawgs, with the aforementioned Stroud shredding them for 348 yards and four touchdowns, while Harrison Jr. amassed 106 yards and a pair of scores on just five catches. (Fellow Receiver) Emeka Egbuka added eight receptions for 112 yards and a touchdown of his own to boot. As for the list of opt-outs for tonight’s Cotton Bowl Classic, the most notable is McCord, who has opted to hit the Transfer Portal following his lone season as the Buckeyes’ starting Quarterback. Joining him in their departure of Columbus is (Junior Tailback) Chip Trayanum, (Junior Receiver) Julian Fleming, (Junior Kicker) Parker Lewis, and a number of underclassmen Defensive Backs. On the injury front, (Junior Safety) Lathan Ransom is listed as questionable with an ailing leg, while the aforementioned Brown is a long shot to play tonight due to an ankle sprain. Looking ahead, Day will once again be looking to get the Buckeyes back to the summit of the ever-expanding BIG 10, though he’ll need to sort out the situation at Quarterback, with many clamoring for Brown to get his shot.

Projected Outcome: Missouri 27, Ohio State 24