New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns

For the final time in 2023, the NFL will be entertaining us on a Thursday Night, as the surging Cleveland Browns look to formally punch their ticket to the playoffs as they host the fading New York Jets, who are simply playing out the string of what has been a seriously disappointing season. If we’re being honest, the term disappointing doesn’t even begin to describe this latest exercise in ineptitude for the Jets (6-9, 3rd in AFC East), who have clinched their THIRTEENTH consecutive campaign without the playoffs, which is currently the longest streak in the league. Of course, it wasn’t for a lack of trying as this was a franchise with HIGH hopes for this Fall. New York swung for the fences with the acquisition of (four-time MVP Quarterback) Aaron Rodgers in a seismic deal that held the sporting world hostage for months, and then proceeded to surround him with a number of former teammates from Green Bay, along with (former Offensive Coordinator) Nathaniel Hackett. Those new components combined with an emerging young defense was expected to vault Gang Green into the postseason conversation within the treacherous AFC, with some in the Empire State even proclaiming them as dark horse Super Bowl contenders. The NFL also took notice of the hype around Rodgers & Co and poured gasoline on the proverbial fire, placing them on this latest season of Hard Knocks while gifting them FIVE primetime games, including four in the first ten weeks alone. So, what in the name of Joe Willy Namath has happened to these Jets, you ask? Well, this plane veered off course as soon as it took flight, as Rodgers (pictured below) tore his Achilles tendon on the third play of their opening drive in the season opener. While they found a way to beat the Bills in that one, the abrupt shift back to (third year QB) Zach Wilson proved disastrous, with the 2021 second overall pick proving unable of dealing with the pressure of being the starter. Behind an Offensive Line that appeared to lose a starter with each passing week, Wilson would complete just 60.1% of his throws for an average of 189.3 yards on a mere 4.66 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions, and a QBR of 30.1, while suffering FORTY-SIX sacks in twelve games. Oh, and he has been benched TWICE. It really hasn’t mattered who has thrown the football for New York this season, with Wilson and (journeymen) Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian failing to ignite much of a passing attack. On the year, this is an offense that ranks thirtieth in scoring (15.4), next-to-last in passing yards (202.8), along with dead-last in a slew of other categories including total yards (293.1), net yards per pass (4.35), turnovers (30), third down percentage (25.5%), and red zone percentage (35.3%). Of course, this is what happens when you place all of your eggs in the basket of a 40-year-old Quarterback, with the potential of a serious injury or decline in play always lurking around the corner. The offseason will likely entertain the thought of what this team could have been had the future Hall of Famer been healthy throughout the season, though given the state of the Offensive Line, we have serious doubts that even he would have propelled Gang Green to championship contention. For what it is worth, it appears that (longtime Owner) Woody Johnson feels the same way, as he gave a vote of confidence in both (Head Coach) Robert Saleh and (General Manager) Joe Douglas, along with Hackett, going into next season. Perhaps that statement motivated them to last weekend’s rollercoaster 30-28 victory over the Commanders, which saw the hosts rally back after blowing a commanding (pun intended) 27-7 halftime lead. After an early field goal following an interception on the opening drive, New York blocked a punt deep in Washington territory, leading to an 8-yard touchdown from Siemian to (Rookie Wideout) Jason Brownlee less than two minutes later. Then, following a quick three-and-out, (Sophomore Tailback) Breece Hall ripped off a 36-yard touchdown on the first play of the ensuing possession. Hall would add another score right before halftime, reasserting the home side’s 20-point advantage. Unfortunately, the second half would turn into a horror show for the faithful that attended MetLife Stadium on Christmas Eve, as Saleh’s charges punted on five of six possessions bookending an interception of Siemian, while the visitors strung together three consecutive touchdown drives after benching (Sophomore QB) Sam Howell in favor of (journeyman) Jacoby Brissett. After finally forcing a punt, Siemian would engineer an 8-play, 31-yard drive down to Washington’s 36-yard line, teeing up (veteran Kicker) Greg Zuerlein for the game-winning 54-yard field goal. When it was all said and done, the Jets held sizable advantages in a number of categories, including total yards (381-245), first downs (26-18), rushing yards (164-102), and time of possession (36:16), though nearly wasted it all with two turnovers and a whopping FOURTEEN penalties for 150 yards lost. Siemian completed 27-of-49 passes for 217 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while also losing a fumble, while Hall was undoubtedly the player of the game, with 191 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns on a career-high thirty-two touches.

From a betting perspective, the Jets have been disappointing this season straight-up (6-9) and against the spread (5-9-1), with a lone push against their MetLife Stadium neighbors, the Giants, serving as the only difference in records. Coincidentally, that 13-10 snoozefest served as the turning point of their campaign. Remember, New York had actually covered three consecutive contests before that affair, only to have spiraled into a 1-7 run against the spread ever since, with their lone cover being a 30-6 win over the Texans back on December 10th. Over their last ten ventures away from the Meadowlands, Gang Green is a miserable 2-7-1 against the spread, while posting a 4-6 mark within a similar window as an underdog, including 1-4 in their last five tilts when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Saleh’s troops have REALLY struggled in these midweek affairs, covering NONE of their last five Thursday games. Looking at this particular matchup, these sides have met fairly frequently over the last decade, with eight encounters dating back to 2013, with the Jets taking SIX of them both straight-up and against the spread. Interestingly, the road team has won and covered four of the last six meetings, including last Fall’s wild 31-30 shootout in Northern Ohio. With (former QB) Joe Flacco getting his second straight start in place of an injured Wilson, the visitors rallied back to tie the game on three occasions before falling into a 17-30 hole. However, Flacco would lead them seventy-five yards downfield in just two plays thanks to a 66-yard touchdown to (former Wideout) Corey Davis, only to get the ball right back following an interception. From there, Flacco again marched New York downfield in short order, striking paydirt with a 15-yard score to (then-rookie) Garrett Wilson to win the game. When it was all said and done, the former Super Bowl MVP completed 26-of-44 passes for 307 yards and FOUR touchdowns, linking up with Wilson for eight receptions, 102 yards, and that aforementioned score. On the injury front, we’ve already spent enough time covering any potential return for Rodgers, which isn’t happening at this point given the team’s lowly standing at this stage of the campaign. However, (veteran Tackle) Duane Brown is listed as questionable with an ailing back that caused him to leave last weekend’s loss to the Commanders. (Defensive Lineman) Jonathan Franklin-Myers is in the same boat due to ankle and groin maladies, while Zuerlein is battling a tender quadriceps and Siemian is dealing with a sore elbow. Looking ahead, the Jets will conclude their THIRTEENTH consecutive season without a playoff appearance next weekend with their annual trip to Foxborough, where the struggling Patriots will be looking to send their Head Coach, Bill Belichick, off as a winner in what could very well be his final game with the franchise that he led to SIX Super Bowl titles.

Meanwhile, Quarterback injuries may have shot down their opponent tonight, but make no mistake about it, the Browns (10-5, 2nd in AFC North) have been THRIVING in the face of similar injuries. All the credit in the world goes to (Head Coach) Kevn Stefanski and his staff for keeping Cleveland in playoff contention despite a wealth of notable absences. Keep in mind that this is a team that lost (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Nick Chubb and (veteran Right Tackle) Jack Conklin to season-ending injuries in the second game of the campaign, before (veteran Quarterback) Deshaun Watson spent two different spells on the sidelines due to an ailing shoulder that has since ended his season prematurely. Stefanski has started FOUR different Quarterbacks this Fall, including Watson, (journeyman) P.J. Walker, (rookie) Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and most recently Joe Flacco, which has led to their torrid form of late. Sure, we need to remind ourselves that this is a guy who was a quality starter for the bulk of eleven years in Baltimore, where he led their division rivals to six playoff appearances including a triumph in Super Bowl XLVII, where he capped a historic playoff run with that game’s MVP honors. However, since leaving the Ravens after 2018, Flacco (pictured below) has resided in limbo, starting seventeen games for the Broncos and Jets between 2019 and 2022, before effectively being unemployed before Stefanski and (General Manager) Andrew Berry called him in early December. Well, for those around the league that thought that the 38-year-old was washed, we’d advise you all to think again; in four starts with the Browns, Flacco has completed 59.4% of his throws for an average of 326.8 yards on 6.91 net yards per attempt, with ten touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions, while the offense as a whole has erupted for 27.8 points on 377.8 total yards. This revelation has likewise had a profound effect on (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Amari Cooper, who has posted a career-high 1,250 receiving yards thus far, with a staggering 485 yards of that total coming from the right arm of Flacco. Hell, in the last two games alone, Cooper has ROASTED opposing Secondaries to the tune of 374 yards and three scores on fifteen catches, including a franchise record 265 yards in last weekend’s 36-22 victory over the Texans. It appeared as if the QB and WR were simply playing a game of pitch and catch throughout the afternoon, as Flacco repeatedly pushed the ball downfield to one of the best route-runners in the league, connecting on a 75-yard bomb early in the second quarter to take a 14-0 lead. Cleveland would lead by as many as twenty-nine points in this one, before the hosts managed to add some consolation points in garbage time. In the end, the visitors dominated this affair, outgaining Houston 418-250 in total yardage, converting 6-of-16 third downs and all but two of their six attempts on fourth, for reasons we’ll explain shortly. Flacco completed 27-of-42 passes for 368 yards, three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions, while Cooper broke that team record on eleven receptions. As for (defensive Coordinator) Jim Schwartz’s defense, which has been arguably the best in the NFL all season, they relegated the Texans, who at one point were alternating Quarterbacks, to 250 total yards on twenty first downs, including seventy-two rushing yards on sixteen carries, 5-of-15 on third down and 1-of-3 on fourth down, while logging a pair of takeaways and three sacks along the way. (Veteran Defensive End) Za’Darius Smith was a monster with a pair of sacks and four QB hits, while (emerging Linebacker) Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah had six tackles and an interception. It was the ELEVENTH time this season in which they allowed under 300 total yards and the third in as many games, all of which being victories. Simply put, Cleveland is going to be a real pain in the ass for whomever draws them in the first round of the playoffs, but we also feel the need to play devil’s advocate, folks, for this is a team that has really taken advantage of the weaker portion of their schedule. Since a 20-24 loss at the seahawks back in late October, the Browns have posted a 6-2 record against a lineup of opponents featuring a combined win percentage of just 60-60 (.500), with many of those wins coming against teams with similar issues at Quarterback.

From a betting perspective, the Browns have been one of the most profitable teams to wager upon this season, posting a 10-5 record straight-up and a stellar 9-5-1 mark against the spread. After alternating covers and non-covers for the first six games, Cleveland has become the darling of the betting community, covering all but three of their last nine outings (6-2-1 ATS), thanks in large part to that aforementioned soft schedule and the oddsmakers not knowing what to do with them given all the changes at Quarterback. Interestingly, they have won and covered each of the three contests that Flacco has started for them, which have all come as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 points, including last weekend’s win at Houston (-3). Coincidentally, tonight’s meeting with Gang Green marks only the second time in which this team has been favored by seven or more points, with a 27-0 shutout against the Cardinals (-12.5) serving as the other example. Stefanski’s troops are a stellar 8-2 against the spread in their last ten games at FirstEnergy Stadium, while covering seven of their last ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. In fact, these dawgs have covered SIX consecutive games as a home favorite. Looking at this particular matchup, we touched upon the success of the Jets in recent meetings, though it should be stated that the Browns presented Gang Green with all kinds of problems during that aforementioned affair from last season. Cleveland hung 405 total yards on a defense that finished fourth in the NFL in points allowed and total defense, wearing them down with TWENTY-NINE first downs, 184 rushing yards and an efficient 8-of-12 on third down. They too were forced to roll with a backup at Quarterback, as the previously mentioned Brissett started the first eleven games of the campaign in place of the suspended Watson, completing 22-of-27 passes for 229 yards and a touchdown in this one, though also tossed a crucial interception in the fourth quarter that led to New York’s go-ahead score. Cooper also had a strong showing in this one, with 101 yards and a touchdown on nine catches, while Chubb amassed 113 yards from scrimmage on twenty touches. Ironically, it would be a missed extra point from (former Kicker) Cade York that proved to be the difference in the game, with the franchise eventually parting ways with the 2022 fourth-round pick in the offseason. On the injury front, we’ve covered the injury woes that Stefanski & Co have sustained at Quarterback, so we won’t spend any more time on that, though there are some notables to keep an eye on. (Starting Guard) Joel Bitonio (back), (young Cornerback) Martin Emerson (ankle), (veteran Tailback) Kareem Hunt (ankle), and (Safety) Juan Thornhill (calf) are all listed as questionable, while the Special Teams duo of (Punter) Corey Bojorquez (quadriceps) and (veteran Kicker) Dustin Hopkins (hamstring) are both at risk of participating in tonight’s contest. Keep in mind that the Browns were essentially forced to attempt two-point conversions throughout last weekend’s win over the Texans as a result. Stefanski and Berry have thus signed (veterans) Riley Patterson and Matt Haack to the practice squad in the event that those positions need to be supplemented on this short week. Looking ahead, Cleveland will be in the playoffs for the first time since 2020 if they win tonight, which would make their trip to Cincinnati more or less a test run for the postseason. As the projected first Wild Card within the AFC, they will in all likelihood be traveling to the winner of the AFC South, which at this point is up for grabs between the Jaguars, Colts, and Texans, all of whom they have defeated this Fall.

Projected Outcome: Browns 24, Jets 13